Gasoline prices are expected to continue to decline in the operating period tomorrow, September 19, 2024

Domestic gasoline prices at tomorrow's adjustment session (September 19) are forecast to continue to decrease for the fourth consecutive time due to the sharp decrease in world oil prices.

Tomorrow (September 19) is the operating period. retail price of gasoline according to Decree 80/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 95/2021/ND-CP and Decree 83/2014/ND-CP of the Government on petroleum trading.

At 6:00 a.m. this morning (September 18), Brent oil price was trading at 73.7 USD/barrel, up 0.95 USD compared to the previous session, while WTI oil price was at 71.41 USD/barrel, up 1.1 USD/barrel compared to the previous session.

However, compared to the same period last month, world oil prices are recording a decrease of 8.83% and 10% for WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, down 22.84% and 23.13% respectively compared to the same period in 2023.

Gasoline prices are expected to continue their downward trend in the operating period tomorrow, September 19. Photo: Dinh Tuan

Based on the developments of the world market, many domestic enterprises predict that in the price adjustment period tomorrow, September 19, gasoline prices may be adjusted down.

Accordingly, gasoline prices may decrease by up to VND150/liter, while diesel is forecast to decrease by VND200/liter. This forecast price does not take into account the management agency's allocation or disbursement of the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

If the regulatory authority makes a provision Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund then the possibility of gasoline prices remaining the same as the previous adjustment period; but if the fund is used, gasoline prices will decrease more sharply. However, from October 2023, the operator will not use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

Making a similar forecast, the Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model of the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI) shows that, in the operating session tomorrow (September 19), gasoline prices may decrease slightly by 0.1 - 0.5% if the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade does not set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund.

Based on technical calculations and forecast models, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may decrease by VND 95 (0.5%) to VND 18,795/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by VND 28 (0.1%) to VND 19,602/liter.

The price of fuel oil may increase by about 266 VND (1.8%) to 14,726 VND/kg, while diesel oil is forecast to decrease slightly by 0.2% to 17,121 VND/liter, and kerosene oil will decrease slightly by 0.5% to 17,707 VND/liter. VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this time.

If VPI's forecast remains as accurate as previous forecasts, this will be the fourth consecutive time that gasoline prices on the market continue to decrease.

In the most recent gasoline price adjustment period (September 12), the prices of gasoline and oil were adjusted downward by the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance.

During the operating period on September 12, RON95 gasoline price decreased by more than VND1,192/liter, not higher than VND19,635/liter, E5 RON92 gasoline price decreased by VND1,089/liter, not higher than VND18,890/liter.

Diesel price decreased by 927 VND/liter, not higher than 17,165 VND/liter. Kerosene price decreased by 934 VND/liter, not higher than 17,790 VND/liter and fuel oil price decreased by 688 VND/kg, not higher than 14,467 VND/kg.

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