Arabica coffee export price hits 5-month peak

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the end of the trading session on November 15, the coffee market continued to attract investors' attention when Arabica prices increased sharply by 2.19%, returning to the highest price in 5 months. Robusta prices also closed up 3.03% at the reference price. MXV said that buying power began to dominate from the evening session when investors increased their holdings of buying positions. In addition, concerns about the prospect of coffee supply in Brazil also supported the price recovery.

Coffee prices remain high

Inflation in the US has cooled, so the market is betting that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will end its interest rate hike cycle at its next meeting. This weakens the safe-haven role of the USD and money flows to other markets, thereby stimulating speculators to increase their net long positions.

Furthermore, record-breaking heatwave conditions in Brazil’s main coffee growing region could last through the week. While coffee plants are in the flowering and fruit-setting stages, excessive heat will stunt their growth, raising concerns about low yields for the new crop.

Robusta prices increased sharply when inventories on the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange ICE-EU decreased by 800 tons at the end of the session on November 14, to 37,300 tons, the lowest in nearly a month.

Coffee prices continue to stay high, creating an opportunity for Vietnam's coffee exports. In the 2022/2023 crop year, Vietnam's coffee exports will earn US$4.08 billion, up 3.4% over the previous crop year thanks to high prices. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), this is the highest turnover in crop years to date.

Coffee exports continue to benefit in price

VICOFA forecasts that the 2023/2024 coffee crop will be harvested later than the previous crop, and the new crop supply will decrease by about 10%, in the context of record heat causing a serious decline in Brazilian coffee output, unable to meet world demand. These are factors that will help coffee exports benefit in terms of price.

Spain is currently one of the main consumer markets for Vietnamese coffee. According to data from the European Union Statistics Office (Eurostat), Spain's coffee imports showed signs of increasing again in August 2023, reaching 30.41 thousand tons, worth 121.6 million USD, up 15.6% in volume and 14.1% in value compared to July 2023; compared to August 2022, up 4.1% in volume and 12.7% in value.

In the first 8 months of 2023, Spain's coffee imports reached 240 thousand tons, worth 920.1 million USD, down 4.1% in volume and 1.5% in value over the same period last year.

Notably, although the total volume of imported coffee decreased, Spain still increased coffee imports from Vietnam in the first 8 months of 2023 with an increase of 29.7% in volume and 36% in value over the same period last year, reaching 96.5 thousand tons, worth 246 million USD.

Accordingly, Vietnam's coffee market share in Spain's total imports from the world increased from 29.7% in the first 8 months of 2022 to 40.2% in the first 8 months of 2023.

In contrast, Spain sharply reduced its coffee imports from Brazil in the first eight months of 2023, down 33% in volume and 31.5% in value compared to the same period last year. Brazil's share of Spain's total world coffee imports fell from 18.9% in the first eight months of 2022 to 13.2% in the first eight months of 2023.

Source link: https://congthuong.vn/gia-xuat-khau-ca-phe-arabica-lap-dinh-5-thang-285911.html