IMF maintains global growth forecast for 2024

In its updated World Economic Outlook report released on July 16, the IMF forecast the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2024, unchanged from its forecast in April.

People buy food at a supermarket in Glendale, California, USA.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) kept its global growth forecast for 2024 unchanged, but cut its forecast for economic growth in the US and Japan, while warning of inflation risks and upcoming trade tensions.

In its updated World Economic Outlook report released on July 16, the IMF forecast the world economy to grow 3.2% in 2024, unchanged from its April forecast. The forecast for 2025 is 3.3%.

"Global activity and world trade picked up at the start of the year, driven by strong exports from Asia, particularly in the technology sector," the IMF said.

China and India are expected to drive activity in Asia. China’s economic growth is revised up to 5% in 2024 on recovering private consumption and strong exports, and India’s is expected to reach 7%, partly due to better consumer prospects. The eurozone is also showing signs of recovery.

However, while many countries saw better-than-expected growth in the first half of this year, the IMF highlighted notable surprises in Japan and the US. Specifically, the US economic growth forecast for 2024 was downgraded to 2.6%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the April forecast, due to a "slower-than-expected start to the year."

Japan's economy is expected to grow 0.2 percentage points less than expected, to 0.7% this year, mainly due to temporary supply disruptions and weak private investment in the first quarter of 2024, according to the IMF.

The IMF warned that inflation risks remain amid rising trade or geopolitical tensions, although it still expects inflation to return to target by the end of 2025.

The IMF said escalating trade tensions could also increase inflation risks in the short term by pushing up the cost of imported goods. Higher inflation could increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high for longer, increasing financial risks.

IMF calls for prudent monetary policy adjustment.

Source: VNA

Source: https://baophutho.vn/imf-giu-nguyen-du-bao-tang-truong-toan-cau-nam-2024-215492.htm