The worst case scenario for Ukraine's counterattack

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's surprise appearance at NATO headquarters to demand more weapons for the Eastern European nation has underscored Kiev's concerns about waning ally support.

Ukraine's concerns are well-founded amid Republican opposition in the US House of Representatives and attention shifting to the brutal conflict between Israel and Hamas.

“A counterattack is one thing, but you also need to defend yourself, because on the other side is Russia, a huge army,” President Zelensky said at a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on October 11, trying to explain that it was not only the fate of Ukraine’s counterattack that was at stake.

Impact on long-term planning

Analysts say that a temporary interruption – even for a few weeks – in the flow of aid would be enough to affect Kiev’s strategy and tactics, thereby limiting Ukraine’s fierce counterattack, reducing pressure on Russian forces and giving the enemy a chance to restore its combat strength.

The hurdle to military and financial aid erected by a small group of Republicans in the US House of Representatives is unlikely to have an immediate impact, said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“But in the next few weeks… if nothing really changes in Congress , I think that will impact Ukraine’s decisions on the battlefield. And it will certainly impact their planning as they go into the winter and spring,” Bergmann said.

With the uncertainty over US military aid, it is “inevitable” that Ukraine will have to rethink its tactics and strategy, said Mick Ryan, a former Australian Army major general who has closely followed the war. And according to Ryan, Ukraine’s Chief of the General Staff, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, will have to prepare for the worst.

A Ukrainian serviceman fires a machine gun towards Russian positions near Andriivka, Donetsk, August 27, 2023. Photo: Euronews

The Pentagon still has more than $5 billion in funds available to provide weapons and other security assistance to Ukraine through the Presidential Withdrawal Authority (PDA), after Congress refused to provide additional funding. That’s enough money to last several months at current spending levels. The Biden administration has used the PDA to provide Ukraine with nearly $25 billion in weapons and support services.

The new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Q. Brown, said on October 11 that Washington planned to deliver the equipment until at least January 1, 2024. The joint commitment of the United States and its allies will allow Ukraine to stick to its plan, he said. “I don’t think their plan will have to change.”

Another $9.4 billion has been spent on procurement contracts for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), a US Defense Department -led program, mainly for artillery shells, air defense interceptors, long-range precision missiles and armored vehicles. But many contracts remain unfulfilled.

But US defense officials admit that there will be nothing left in the fund until Congress appropriates more money. All of which could affect Kiev’s long-term planning, while this is a crucial time for Ukraine, as international fatigue begins to set in and the world’s attention shifts to the Middle East.

The fierce conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas could also be a double-edged sword for Kiev. Ukraine and Israel may eventually have to compete for some US support, including artillery shells and air defense interceptors.

Some US officials say this will not happen immediately because the US has already committed $3.8 billion in lethal aid to Israel. Israel’s main need now is interceptor missiles for its short-range Iron Dome system, which Ukraine does not currently possess.

“We can do both (support both Israel and Ukraine), and we will do both,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on October 11.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, October 11, 2023. Photo: ABC News

On the other hand, White House officials and some US lawmakers are considering the possibility of integrating aid to Israel and Ukraine into the same package. This could be seen as opening a new path for support for Kiev. However, there is no guarantee that this possibility will happen.

Redefining the War

As the stalemate in Washington continues, the Ukrainian military will tend to scale back its use of US-supplied weapons systems and ammunition in case aid is interrupted.

With its dense fortifications, deep minefields and Russian drones, Ukraine’s counteroffensive revolves around using artillery to destroy enemy positions, consuming 6,000-7,000 shells a day. As a result, Ukraine’s artillery shells will be used faster than its allies can produce and send to the front lines.

“If they (Ukraine) feel they can’t advance any further, they will back off and that will stop the offensive,” said Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “A disruption of support for even a few weeks could lead to losses and setbacks.”

Meanwhile, US artillery stocks are running low, forcing Washington to send controversial cluster munitions to Ukraine. The US is aiming to increase its production capacity for 155mm artillery shells from 28,000 per month to 60,000 per month by 2024, and to 100,000 per month by the summer of 2025.

In theory, the European Union (EU) could bridge the gap in financial and economic aid to Ukraine, but it is far from matching the US in military aid.

By the time Russia launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine, European countries had depleted their weapons stocks and had very low defense production capacity.

“Broken to the bone” was the word Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee and NATO’s most senior military official, used to describe Europe’s ammunition stockpiles while speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum last week.

Countries are racing to replenish their stockpiles. The EU has earmarked €3 billion to supply artillery shells to Ukraine and fill its stockpiles. A senior official said the EU was on track to meet its target of sending Ukraine 1 million shells this year, but it was unclear how many of those would be new.

If the Ukrainians are not confident that they will continue to be supplied with artillery, cluster munitions or mortars, they may be forced to retreat to defensive positions, said CSIS’s Bergmann. “So it really reshapes the war for them.”

The Russian Defense Ministry released a video of BM-21 Grad MLRS units of the Central Military District destroying enemy positions in the Krasny Liman direction, during a "special military operation" in Ukraine. The video was posted on the Telegram channel Ukraine Watch on October 12, 2023.

A similar picture is emerging for air defense. On October 10, Germany announced that it would send a second US-made Patriot system and a fifth German-made IRIS-T system to Ukraine. But Kiev still relies on US interceptors for the bulk of its Western-designed air defenses, and Ukrainian forces may limit their use because of supply constraints.

NATO ministers said Western support for Ukraine needed to shift from direct supplies to domestic procurement and production. However, contracts with foreign defense companies and expanded production in Ukraine would take time to bear fruit.

“Ukraine is heavily dependent on outside support and it is needed right now,” said Oleksiy Melnyk, a former Ukrainian Air Force lieutenant colonel and now co-director of the Kiev-based Razumkov Center think tank.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also pointed out the importance of Western supplies to Ukraine. Speaking at the 20th Annual Conference of the Valdai Dialogue Club on October 5, Putin said that without Western arms supplies, Ukraine “would last only a week . ”

Minh Duc (According to FT, CNN)

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/kich-ban-te-nhat-cho-cuoc-phan-cong-cua-ukraine-a630920.html