Vietnam's economy will welcome many opportunities after Trump's policy

(VTC News) – According to experts, the upcoming policies of the Trump administration will likely have an impact on helping Vietnam's economy develop rapidly.

Great growth opportunity

Economist Bui Kien Thanh commented that Mr. Donald Trump always considered Vietnam an important component of the Asia-Pacific region and played an important role in the overall development of the region. Therefore, under President Trump, Vietnam will have the opportunity to develop remarkably. As the center of the Asia-Pacific region - a region that accounts for more than half of the world's population and more than half of the world's GDP - Vietnam's role will be strongly promoted.

However, Mr. Thanh said that there will be a trade deficit between Vietnam and the US, but this is not too important because it is not only a problem for Vietnam but for the whole region and Vietnam mainly temporarily imports and re-exports.

Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Finance and Banking, Nguyen Trai University, also said that the Vietnam-US relationship has undergone remarkable developments, especially with the upgrade to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2023. This is an important turning point, marking a new era in bilateral relations, not only limited to the fields of politics and defense but also expanding to economics, culture and education.

“ When Mr. Donald Trump takes office for a second term as President, Vietnam has the opportunity to take advantage of this solid foundation to deepen the cooperative relationship, especially in the context of the US maintaining its “America First” economic policy ,” Mr. Huy stated his point of view.

Specifically, Mr. Huy said that the US is Vietnam's largest export market, while Vietnam is becoming an important trade partner of the US in Southeast Asia. With the basis of strategic partnership, the two countries will likely seek specific solutions to balance the trade balance and reduce risks due to protectionist measures from the US.

How will President Donald Trump's policies affect Vietnam's economy? (Illustration photo: VNA).

However, Vietnam will also face many challenges in its economic relations with the US in the coming time. Vietnam is one of the countries with a large trade surplus with the US, with key products such as textiles, footwear and electronics. This could increase the risk of the US applying import restrictions such as increasing tariffs or strictly controlling the origin of goods.

Therefore, Vietnam needs to increase imports from the US, especially high-tech products, medical equipment and clean energy, to reduce pressure on the trade balance.

In addition, the US economic protection policy may lead to increased control of supply chains and requirements for transparency of goods origin. This causes difficulties for Vietnam, so Vietnam needs to promote localization of supply chains, develop supporting industries to increase self-reliance, and build partnerships with suppliers in the US and other countries.

In addition, during Trump’s first term, the US encouraged businesses to return to domestic investment through preferential tax policies and lower interest rates. This trend may continue in his second term, affecting FDI flows into Vietnam.

According to analysis by experts from DSC Securities Company, the impacts of policies under Mr. Trump will be noticeable from the end of 2025, because the time to issue new policies in the US is quite long. The time is usually at least 6-12 months from the date of initiation of investigation until the policy is issued.

“ We assume the Trump administration will impose a 60% tariff on imports from China and 10-20% on countries that do not have an FTA with the US, including Vietnam, ” said the DSC expert.

Vietnam will also not be subject to additional tariffs, but as one of the five countries with a large trade surplus with the US, the country may require Vietnam to increase imports of technology and energy products to reduce the bilateral trade deficit.

“ This scenario has the highest probability of happening. In this scenario, Vietnam will still benefit when the trade relationship between the two sides is maintained stably; the trend of shifting production to Vietnam, as well as having the opportunity to access many technology and energy products from the US.

However, the downside is that Vietnam may have to reduce benefits from some key export sectors, and the pressure to balance trade may cause difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises , "the expert said.

What should Vietnam do?

According to economist Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong, under Mr. Trump, taxes will increase for many countries, including Vietnam. This is both an opportunity and a challenge. Because increasing taxes will increase prices, making competitiveness worse. But the opportunity is that Vietnam's tax rate is lower than China's, so it can sell cheaper to develop its potential.

According to Mr. Phong, to seize the upcoming opportunities, businesses need to produce quality goods and sell them at cheaper prices than other countries.

According to economist Bui Kien Thanh, Vietnam must proactively develop and review institutional issues to integrate with the world and reduce internal negative issues. In addition, Vietnam needs to develop new technology, new finance, and AI technology development also needs to be focused on in the coming years.

“ Vietnam currently has a signed agreement between Nvidia and FPT, so if these industries develop well, they will bring Vietnam to new heights, ” Mr. Thanh predicted.

According to Mr. Nguyen Quang Huy, to take advantage of the comprehensive strategic partnership platform and respond to challenges from US economic policies, Vietnam needs to implement strategic measures such as: Strengthening administrative reforms, creating favorable conditions for domestic and foreign enterprises.

Expand trade relations with other regions such as the EU, Japan, Korea and ASEAN to reduce dependence on the US market.

At the same time, build a strategy for developing supporting industries: Invest in supporting industries to increase the localization rate and reduce dependence on imported raw materials.

Besides, promote negotiations and build bilateral cooperation agreements on trade and investment to protect Vietnam's economic interests.

Chau Anh - Pham Duy

Vtcnews.vn

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/kinh-te-viet-nam-se-don-nhieu-co-hoi-sau-chinh-sach-cua-ong-trump-ar921726.html