Some stocks to watch on September 24

Positive recommendation for HDB stock

Vietcap Securities Company (VCSC) raised its target price for Ho Chi Minh City Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank (HDB) by 4% to VND29,000/share, but downgraded its recommendation from buy to outperform as the stock price has increased by 17% in the past 3 months. VCSC's higher target price mainly comes from VCSC's 4% increase in its forecast for total profit after tax (NPAT) after minority interests (CĐTS) for the period 2024-2028 (changes of 1%/-1%/2%/2%/6% for the forecasts for the years 2024/2025/2026/2027/2028, respectively).

VCSC slightly increased its 2024 NPAT after minority interests forecast by 1% to VND12,400 billion (+24% YoY) mainly due to a 2% increase in net interest income (NII) forecast with a higher NIM forecast and a 14% reduction in provision expenses forecast, offsetting a 20% reduction in VCSC's non-interest income (NOII) forecast amid lower-than-expected 1H24 NOII.

Some stocks to watch on September 24 (Illustration: KT)

VCSC forecasts HDS's pre-tax profit (PBT) in 2024 to reach VND1,300 billion (+97% YoY) with PBT in the first half of 2024 reaching VND601 billion. The company targets credit growth of 25% in 2024 with consumer lending increasing seasonally in the second half of 2024.

Buy recommendation for BMP stock

VCSC upgraded its recommendation on BMP from outperform to buy, and increased VCSC's target price by 19% to VND130,300/share.

VCSC’s higher target prices reflect 14%/16%/17%/19%/21% increases in FY2024/2025/2026/2027/2028 NPATMI forecasts, driven primarily by an improvement in the gross margin outlook. This is due to a higher-than-expected 1H20 gross margin of 43.2%, surpassing the previous record of 40.6% in 1H23. VCSC raises its gross margin forecasts by 420/500/440/420/400 basis points for FY2024/2025/2026/2027/2028.

The improved gross margin outlook is driven by lower-than-expected PVC input prices as China’s demand recovery remains weaker than expected, VCSC expects BMP to increase its ASP by 4% yoy in 2025 to offset the expected 8% increase in raw material costs. VCSC now forecasts BMP’s raw material costs to grow -5%/+8% yoy in 2024/25, respectively (vs. +7%/+10% previously).

Positive recommendation for PNJ stock

According to MB Securities Company (MBS), in 2024, MBS expects retail revenue to increase by 12% thanks to a store growth rate of 5%, Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ) will own 420 stores, revenue/store will increase by 7% mainly due to increased product prices (estimated increase of 5%).

Some stocks to watch on September 24 (Illustration: KT)

With the support of a surge in gold bar revenue (up 27%), PNJ's total revenue is forecast to increase by 18%. However, due to a lower estimated gross profit margin due to the high proportion of gold bars, MBS forecasts net profit to increase by 10%, recording VND2,161 billion.

In 2025-2026, thanks to better demand growth compared to the low base level in 2024, jewelry consumption output will improve, store growth rate will reach 6%/5%, PNJ's net profit is forecast to increase by 16%/14%.

The target price is the same as the previous report because MBS changed the valuation model to 2024-2025, reducing 2024-2025 EPS by 8%/5% compared to the previous forecast. The stock price has decreased by about 10% from the peak and is currently at the base price of 2024.

MBS believes that the current price reflects most of the negative factors in the July - August business results as September begins the peak jewelry shopping season, and consumption demand may recover at this time. Therefore, MBS sees this as the right time to invest in PNJ for the medium to long term. Downside risks include weaker-than-expected consumption demand and a higher ratio of selling and administrative expenses/total revenue than 10%. Therefore, MBS maintains a positive recommendation for PNJ with a target price of VND 114,300/share.

► Stock market commentary September 24: VN-Index grows with the nearest support zone around 1,265 points

Source: https://vov.vn/thi-truong/chung-khoan/mot-so-co-phieu-can-quan-tam-ngay-249-post1123519.vov