Russia to deploy Oreshnik hypersonic missiles to Belarus by late 2025
Russia plans to deliver Oreshnik hypersonic missiles to Belarus in 2025, enhancing defense cooperation between the two countries.
Báo Khoa học và Đời sống•31/05/2025
Russia plans to deploy its advanced Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (MRBM) system in Belarus by the end of this year, a senior Belarusian official said on May 28. Alexander Volfovich, Minister of the Security Council of Belarus, made the statement during an international security summit hosted by Russia, signaling an increase in the military alliance between Russia and Belarus. Photo: @TCHUA. The news, which was also confirmed by Russian state media, comes amid heightened tensions between Russia and NATO, and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine. It further raises concerns about an escalation in a region that has been tense for years. Photo: @ТСН.
The announcement follows a December 2024 agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which cited NATO's military presence and Ukraine's use of Western-supplied weapons as the reasons for the deployment. For the US and its allies, the move is a provocative step that could challenge regional stability and test NATO's response. Photo: @ The Economist. The Oreshnik missile, described by Russian officials as a hypersonic, nuclear-capable weapon, was first used in combat on November 21, 2024, targeting a defense facility in Dnipro, Ukraine. That attack, which Russian authorities claimed was a response to Ukraine’s use of US-supplied ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles on Russian territory, more or less demonstrated the Oreshnik’s potential to deliver significant destructive power. Photo: @euractiv. Alexander Volfovich, Minister of the Security Council of Belarus, stressed that the deployment sites for the Oreshnik missiles in Belarus have been chosen. He also dismissed skepticism from Ukraine and Western countries, saying that the deployment was just Russia and Belarus "deceiving themselves with a ray of hope". Photo: @Tom Balmforth. The Oreshnik missile, believed to be a derivative of the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile program, is a significant addition to Russia’s strategic arsenal. With an estimated range of 1,000 to 5,500 kilometers, it can strike targets across Europe and parts of Asia. Photo: @Tom Balmforth. The Oreshnik missile's hypersonic capabilities exceed Mach 5, allowing it to travel at speeds of around 6,175 km/h, making it difficult for conventional air defense systems to intercept it. Photo: @Tom Balmforth. Russian sources, including military analyst Igor Korotchenko speaking to TASS, claim that the Oreshnik missile can carry multiple MIRV (multiple independently targetable warheads) mounted on hypersonic re-entry vehicles, allowing it to hit multiple targets at once with high precision. Photo: @Tom Balmforth. During the attack on Dnipro, a single Oreshnik missile, equipped with six warheads and each warhead containing six sub-warheads, was deployed, demonstrating its ability to cause widespread damage. At the time, Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted of the missile's destructive power: "The Oreshnik is not just an effective hypersonic weapon. Its strike power, especially when used en masse, is comparable to that of strategic weapons." Photo: @Tom Balmforth.
The missile's design is based on Russia's efforts to modernize its arsenal following the collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, which banned land-based missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The RS-26 Rubezh, first tested in 2011, was originally developed as an intercontinental ballistic missile but was shelved due to technical and budget constraints. Photo: @Financial Times. Now, the Oreshnik appears to be a reconfigured version optimized for combat missions. It is a 40-ton, solid-fuel missile that is typically launched from a mobile launcher, which increases its survivability. Belarus has produced launchers such as the MZKT-7930 Astrolog, which is also used for Russia’s Iskander system. Belarusian officials, including Lukashenko, have recently confirmed that the country is producing additional launchers specifically for the Oreshnik missile. Photo: @Financial Times. The strategic rationale for deploying the Oreshnik missiles in Belarus stems from the country’s geographical location. Sharing a 1,083-km border with Ukraine and NATO members Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, Belarus serves as a forward base for Russian military operations. Photo: @ Wilson Center. Deploying Oreshnik missiles in Belarus would reduce the flight time to potential targets in Ukraine, such as Kyiv, to just minutes, further complicating Ukraine’s defense efforts. It would also put NATO capitals like Warsaw and Vilnius within striking distance, further strengthening Russia’s deterrent. The announcement has drawn mixed reactions from Western and Ukrainian officials. Photo: @AiTelly. NATO condemned the escalation but did not specify specific countermeasures, with a NATO-Ukraine Council meeting convened at Kyiv's request to discuss the implications. US defense officials, speaking anonymously to The New York Times, said the Oreshnik was "an expensive way to not cause too much destruction" when used conventionally, suggesting its main value lay in its nuclear potential. The Pentagon also noted that the missile was still in the testing phase, with limited numbers in Russia's arsenal. Photo: @AiTelly. A US official told The Kyiv Independent that Russia likely only has a “handful” of Oreshnik missiles and that mass production has yet to be fully established. Estonian and British defense officials described the deployment as a “signal of intent” rather than an immediate threat, stressing that Russia’s goal is primarily a psychological show of force. Photo: @AiTelly. By comparison, the Oreshnik has similarities to other global missile systems. Its hypersonic capabilities and multiple warhead design resemble China’s DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, which has a range of about 1,500 kilometers and is designed to evade US naval defenses. Unlike the DF-21D, which prioritizes precision against moving targets, the Oreshnik appears to be optimized for attacking fixed infrastructure, such as air bases or command centers. By contrast, NATO’s missile arsenal, which includes the SM-6 and the US Tomahawk, focuses on flexibility and integration with air and sea platforms. Photo: @ EurAsian Times. The US also plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in Europe by 2026, a move cited by Russia and Belarus as a justification for Russia's deployment of the Oreshnik. However, these US systems are largely conventional, not nuclear-capable like the Oreshnik, underscoring Russia's reliance on nuclear deterrence. Photo: @Wikipedia.
The tactical implications of deploying the Oreshnik in Belarus are significant. The missile’s short flight time to targets in Ukraine and NATO countries will challenge existing air defense systems. The US-made Patriot system, deployed in Poland and Ukraine, has difficulty intercepting hypersonic targets due to their speed and altitude. More advanced systems such as the Arrow 3 or SM-3 Block IIA are capable of countering the Oreshnik, but their limited arsenal limits some of their effectiveness. Photo: @AiTelly. Ukraine's air defences, backed by the West, have successfully intercepted Russian Iskander and Kinzhal missiles, but the Oreshnik's multiple warhead capability and hypersonic speed pose a unique challenge. Justin Crump, CEO of Sibylline, told BBC Verify in November 2024 that the Oreshnik raises the threat to Ukraine's air defences by a significant margin. Photo: @AiTelly. NATO’s multilayered missile defense network, which includes the Aegis Ashore system in Romania and Poland, is designed to counter ballistic threats, but its effectiveness against hypersonic missiles has yet to be proven in combat. The US has emphasized early warning systems, such as satellites and AWACS aircraft, to detect launches and enable rapid response. Electronic and cyber warfare capabilities could also disrupt the Oreshnik’s command and control systems, although Russia’s integration of the missile with its S-400 and S-500 air defense networks could complicate such efforts. Photo: @AiTelly. Logistically, deploying the Oreshnik missile in Belarus poses several challenges. Belarus’ military infrastructure, while capable of supporting the Iskander system, may need to be upgraded to accommodate dedicated Oreshnik missile launchers. Photo: @AiTelly.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has said that Belarus retains dozens of Soviet-era sites suitable for deploying missiles, but modernizing these facilities could strain resources. A former Russian defense engineer told The Moscow Times in December 2024 that mass production of the Oreshnik missile could take years, given inefficiencies and technological lags in Russia’s defense sector. Belarus’ role in producing the launchers would help alleviate some of these problems, but training personnel and integrating the system with Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces would require significant coordination. Photo: @AiTelly. In short, Russia’s plans to deploy the Oreshnik missile in Belarus by the end of 2025 marks a significant escalation in its strategic rivalry with the West. The missile’s hypersonic and nuclear capabilities pose a theoretical threat to NATO and Ukraine, but its practical impact is limited by production constraints and defensive countermeasures. Photo: @AiTelly. The deployment is both a military and a political signal, aimed at deterring Western support for Ukraine and bolstering Russian influence in Belarus. For US policymakers, the challenge is to balance a strong response with the need to avoid unnecessary escalation. As NATO recalibrates its defenses, the question remains: Will the Oreshnik prove to be a game-changer, or just another show-off in Russia’s arsenal of intimidation weapons? Photo: @AiTelly.
Báo Khoa học và Đời sống•31/05/2025
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