Economic highlights in the first 6 months of the year

The General Statistics Office assessed that Vietnam's economic growth in the second quarter and the first six months of the year was positive, in the context of the world's economic growth trending towards improvement.

Promoting growth drivers

Vietnam's economy in 2024 has reached the halfway point in the context of a gradual but uncertain recovery of the world economy. In that context, Vietnam's economic growth in the past 6 months still reached a growth rate of 6.42%. This is considered a fairly good growth rate with outstanding bright spots, of important significance, creating a foundation for economic growth in the last 6 months of the year and the following years.

Looking back over the past 5 years, this year's 6.42% GDP growth rate is the second highest, after the first 6 months of 2022 in the past 5 years. The industrial, construction and service sectors still account for the highest proportion, supporting the economy. In which, the added value of the entire industrial sector in the past 6 months reached 7.54% over the same period last year, also the second highest increase after the same period in 2022. The bustling import-export activities show a positive recovery of the economy, with an estimated trade surplus of 11.63 billion USD.

The General Statistics Office assessed that Vietnam's economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 and the first 6 months was positive, in the context of the world economic growth trending towards improvement. International organizations have made more optimistic forecasts about the world economy with an increase of 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points compared to previous forecasts. Especially domestically, solutions to renew traditional growth drivers have been focused on and there are mechanisms to strongly promote new growth drivers.

A textile and garment enterprise said that with abundant orders from US and EU partners, the enterprise has already planned production for next year. All thanks to the enterprise's quick transition from processing to full-package sewing, adapting to new standards.

Mr. Luu Tien Chung - Vice President of Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association said: "Vietnamese enterprises have been aiming for sustainable and green production, aiming for high-quality products, meeting the fast delivery and flexible production requirements set by partners".

"Market connection work has had very positive changes. The Vietnamese Ministry of Industry and Trade has chaired the invitation of partners, brands, and major distribution channels to Vietnam to dialogue, contact, and guide Vietnamese enterprises to participate in the distribution chain," informed Mr. Do Ngoc Hung - Vietnamese Trade Counselor in the United States.

Production and import-export momentum is catching up very well. Industrial production has increased sharply, leading to an increase in the demand for importing key raw materials, especially among domestic enterprises. Thanks to that, the export momentum has increased continuously over the months. The trade surplus in the first 6 months was over 11.6 billion USD.

With such accelerated production and business momentum, policies on taxes, fees, charges, and interest rates are proving effective, supporting production and aggregate demand in the economy. Total outstanding consumer loans in the entire banking system by the end of May reached more than VND3 million billion, accounting for more than 21% of outstanding loans in the entire economy. According to experts, this ratio will increase sharply in the last 6 months of the year.

Mr. Tran Duc Anh - Director of Macro and Strategy of KB Securities Vietnam Company said: "Consumption is expected to improve in the last months of the year thanks to stimulus policies of the Government and the State Bank such as reducing VAT, lowering interest rates and boosting public investment".

Mr. Jose Vinals - Chairman of Standard Chartered Group assessed: "Vietnam's growth this year is among the leading ones compared to the economic growth of emerging countries in general and the Asian region. We assess that Vietnam's medium-term growth is good thanks to effective fiscal policies, supporting export growth and foreign investment drivers."

Growth opportunities and challenges

What is important, creating the foundation for rapid and sustainable development of the economy in the first 6 months of this year, is that the Government has created momentum and maximized the impact of public investment capital. This continues to be the driving force for growth in the remaining months. Because to achieve the GDP growth target of 6.5% this year, the pressure in the second half of the year is quite large to bring the growth rate of 6.42% to meet the target assigned by the National Assembly. The driving force here must still be public investment.

With the strong, regular and continuous direction of the Government, the Prime Minister and local leaders, the issue of site clearance and handover for important projects has changed. This is the source that leads social resources to invest in development.

The Huu Nghi - Chi Lang Expressway Project, the last section of the North - South Expressway connecting from Huu Nghi border gate to Ca Mau Cape, has just started construction in the second quarter, with a total investment of more than 11,000 billion VND. Currently, more than 1,000 km of expressway is still being deployed nationwide. Hundreds of km of expressway have been put into operation. This year, the whole country has allocated 422,000 billion VND to invest in the transport sector. Preparations for disbursement have been thoroughly carried out in the first half of the year, promising significant changes in the next two quarters.

Another significant driver is foreign direct investment in Vietnam. In the first six months of this year, it is estimated to have reached US$10.84 billion, up 8.2% over the same period last year. This is the highest amount of foreign direct investment in the first six months of the year in the past five years and is expected to maintain positive momentum in the second half of this year.

Mr. Paulo Medas - Head of the IMF's Article IV Consultation Delegation assessed: "We clearly see that the FDI sector in Vietnam shows good resilience to global economic developments. Capital flows into Vietnam have increased sharply, compared to the instability of global investment sentiment, this also shows an indirect impact on exports and industrial production recovery".

However, according to the General Statistics Office, challenges to the economy in the remaining 6 months of this year that need to be noted include the uncertain recovery of the world market, exchange rate pressure on import costs and the issue of controlling domestic prices, ensuring inflation within the target threshold. At the end of 6 months, CPI increased by 4.08% over the same period.

Another very important task is to promote domestic consumption and ensure supply in the second half of the year. Because in the past 6 months, although total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue have increased, the increase rate is lower than the same period last year, showing that people's purchasing power is still quite reserved.

To achieve the above-mentioned growth rate of about 6.5%, there are still many difficulties and challenges. It is necessary to continue implementing drastic solutions to maintain the stability of the economic - political - social situation; ensure macro balances; control inflation well; promote the effectiveness and flexibility of fiscal and monetary policies; resolutely and synchronously implement the solutions proposed in the Government's Resolutions and the Prime Minister's Directives on economic development in the last 6 months of the year.

To successfully achieve this year's growth target, it is necessary to continue to fully implement the 9 groups of key tasks and solutions stated in Resolution No. 93 of the Government on key tasks and solutions to promote growth, control inflation and stabilize the macro-economy with the motto: Promoting the spirit of proactiveness, positivity, innovation, creativity, daring to think, daring to do; ensuring flexibility, timeliness and effectiveness in direction and management; Not operating haphazardly. Resolutely not backing down in the face of difficulties, "concentrating, focusing, focusing", "doing each task thoroughly". Along with that is the consensus of the people and the business community, determined to achieve the best results throughout this year.

According to VTV

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/nhung-diem-sang-noi-bat-cua-kinh-te-6-thang-dau-nam/20240630102531829