After the peak, the stock market needs patience rather than hasty action.

After the VN-Index reached a historic peak of 1,716.47 points in the session on October 9, 2025, the Vietnamese stock market is entering a technical correction phase around the 1,630 - 1,650 point range. Domestic cash flow remains strong, but pressure on exchange rates, interest rates and high margins increases short-term risks. Securities experts say this is the time for investors to stay calm and patiently wait for clear opportunities instead of acting hastily.

Market correction after peak

According to the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE), at the end of the session on October 31, 2025, VN-Index reached 1,639.65 points, VNAllshare reached 1,784.26 points, VN30 reached 1,885.36 points. This index decreased slightly by 1.33% compared to the previous month, but still increased by nearly 30% compared to the same period in 2024. Previously, in the session on October 9, 2025, VN-Index reached 1,716.47 points, officially setting a new historical peak, surpassing the record of 1,528 points in January 2022.

Temporarily closing the morning session on November 7, VN-Index decreased by more than 21 points. Screenshot

HOSE's October report also showed that average liquidity reached VND33,549 billion/session, down slightly by 1.35% compared to September. Foreign investors net sold more than VND22,191 billion, bringing the total net selling value since the beginning of the year to VND119,193 billion. Meanwhile, according to the November report of Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC), domestic cash flow continued to be the main support, with the order matching value in the third quarter of 2025 increasing by 61.8% compared to the previous quarter.

Large-cap stocks such as banks, real estate, and finance played a leading role in the increase, but were also the reason why the index was under pressure to adjust when the cash flow took profits strongly. VDSC warned: "The margin usage rate of the whole market is at its highest level since the beginning of 2022, while the valuation of VN-Index has exceeded the P/E threshold of 18 times. Strong disbursement at this price range no longer provides a clear margin of safety."

In the trading session on November 7, 2025 alone, VN-Index decreased by 21.17 points (-1.29%) to 1,621.47 points, with liquidity of more than VND 9,195 billion, trading volume reaching 319 million shares. The entire floor had 413 stocks decreasing, 215 stocks increasing and 934 stocks remaining unchanged. The finance - banking group was under great pressure when STB (-3.66%), CTG (-2.64%), HDB (-1.83%), MBB (-0.63%) all lost points; VIC (-5.74%), VHM (-4.55%) and VJC (-3.76%) were the stocks that pulled down the index the most.

On the contrary, some defensive stocks maintained green color such asFPT (+0.51%), PVD (+2.23%), PVS (+1.16%), MCH (+3.51%) and VGI (+4.79%), showing that cash flow is more selective, prioritizing groups with stable foundations and sustainable Q4 profits.

In its November 2025 report, VDSC stated that the market is in a “mid-wave” period, when valuations and growth expectations have largely reflected positive business results. Key sectors such as banking, real estate, and securities all reported profits increasing by more than 25%, but this also caused stock prices to approach the high zone.

Several macro factors are putting pressure on the market: The USD/VND exchange rate is on an upward trend, the gap between the free market and the official market has increased to nearly 200 VND/USD. The yield on 10-year government bonds has increased to about 3.1%, the highest level in 18 months. The cost of capital for businesses is expected to increase slightly due to high credit demand during the year-end business season.

Domestic cash flow remains strong but requires vigilance

According to VDSC, this period requires investors to stay calm, observe and wait for a more appropriate time to disburse. The market is still in a medium-term uptrend, but in the short term, technical adjustments are needed. Investors should limit the use of high leverage and only choose businesses with a solid financial foundation.

Stocks most affected by foreign net buying and selling in the morning session of November 7. Screenshot

Currently, cash flow has a clear rotation after the banking, securities, and steel groups led the third quarter. Domestic capital is shifting to technology, energy, and essential consumer goods, industries that are less affected when interest rates increase.

According to HOSE, the information technology sector (VNIT) increased the most in October with +10.89%, while finance (VNFIN) decreased by 5.58% and materials (VNMAT) decreased by 3.59%. This shows that the market is clearly differentiated, no longer having a uniform upward trend like the previous period.

Notably, the return of individual investors is a highlight. According to HOSE, in October, individual investors accounted for 88% of total trading value, the highest level since the beginning of the year. This amount of money helped absorb most of the net selling pressure from foreign investors, keeping the VN-Index stable despite the large selling pressure from ETFs and foreign funds.

However, VDSC warns that when the proportion of individual transactions is too high and the margin increases sharply, the market is prone to sudden fluctuations if there is bad news. “At the moment, investors should be patient and risk management is more important than seeking short-term profits,” VDSC recommends.

In fact, the session on November 7, 2025 showed that liquidity reached more than VND 9,195 billion, with a trading volume of about 319 million shares. Although the cash flow is still at a good level, the number of declining codes is still overwhelming (413 declining codes, 215 increasing codes), reflecting a cautious sentiment after a series of strong increases. Experts say that domestic investors are prioritizing profit preservation, while organizations and foreign investors are still mainly observing.

In the medium and long term, the outlook for the Vietnamese market remains positive thanks to a stable macro foundation and strong foreign investment flows. By the end of October 2025, the stock capitalization on HOSE will reach more than VND 7.25 quadrillion, equivalent to 63% of GDP in 2024, with 50 enterprises with a capitalization of over USD 1 billion, including 3 enterprises with over USD 10 billion: Vietcombank, Vingroup, Vinhomes.

VDSC believes that although the VN-Index may fluctuate around 1,600 - 1,650 points in the short term, the medium-term uptrend is still maintained. However, disbursement should be selective and disciplined. Investors should maintain the proportion of stocks at 50 - 60% of the portfolio, prioritizing banks with good asset quality, energy and consumer goods groups, and limit the use of high margins.

According to VDSC analysts, the market is in a period of testing its strength after reaching a peak. Staying calm, observing carefully and acting when the opportunity is clear will help investors preserve their achievements and prepare for the new cycle.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/sau-khi-vuot-dinh-thi-truong-chung-khoan-can-su-kien-nhan-hon-la-hanh-dong-voi-vang-20251107114753010.htm