According to the complex statistical model and algorithm of the supercomputer Opta, the leading data analysis tool in football, the predicted rankings of the top 8 teams (the group that will directly qualify for the round of 16) have been announced, with many notable surprises including Arsenal's leading position.
Leading group: 8 teams go straight to the round of 16
The model predicts the following teams will finish in the top 8, based on expected points (EP) after 8 matches of the group stage classification stage:
Class | Club | Expected Score (EP) | Note |
1 | Arsenal | 20.26 | Best team of the group stage |
2 | Bayern Munich | 19.38 | Maintaining fearsome strength under coach Vincent Kompany |
3 | Man City | 17.97 | Get through the group stage in the Top 3. |
4 | Liverpool | 17.16 | The reigning English champions showed consistency. |
5 | Inter Milan | 16.96 | Continue to be a competitive force in Europe |
6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 16.58 | Still a championship candidate despite injury problems |
7 | Real Madrid | January 16 | Maintained their place in the Top 8, despite the defeat at Anfield |
8 | Newcastle | 14.89 | The last position to get a direct ticket, a big mark for the English team |
Big surprises:
+ Arsenal take the lead: Coach Mikel Arteta's team is considered the strongest in the group stage with solid defense, superior ball control and formidable attacking power.

Arsenal are making strong progress on all fronts with stable performance.
+ Barcelona missed out on the Top 8: This is the biggest surprise as the Spanish representative is predicted to only rank… 9th with 14.69 expected points, 0.2 points behind Newcastle. This ranking will force coach Hansi Flick’s team to participate in the play-off round to compete for a ticket to the knockout round, a risky stage.

Barcelona is unbalanced and unstable in its playing style.
+ Atletico Madrid struggles: Coach Diego Simeone's team is predicted to only finish 15th, meaning they will also have to participate in the play-off round, showing their lack of stability in Europe.
+ Two Spanish representatives were eliminated early: Athletic Bilbao (ranked 29th) and Villarreal (ranked 30th) are predicted to be outside the group of 24 teams, which means being eliminated right after the qualifying round.
Based on thousands of simulations, the Opta supercomputer has also made predictions about the team most likely to win the championship:
Arsenal are the favourites to lift the trophy, with a 23.53% chance of winning. This is reasonable, because the "Gunners" are currently ranked 2nd on the rankings with all wins and no goals conceded after 4 matches.

Bayern Munich are unbeaten since the start of the season on all fronts.
Bayern Munich under Vincent Kompany is the second strongest candidate for the championship. After the victory over the reigning champion PSG, the "Bavarian Tigers" were given a 14.32% probability by the supercomputer Opta to win the Champions League title .
Meanwhile, third place belongs to Man City. After a difficult period in the 2024-2025 season, coach Pep Guardiola's team is gradually regaining form and the supercomputer predicts that they have a 12.46% chance of ending the season as European champions.

Man City regains the trust of fans and experts
Recently, Liverpool coach Arne Slot has been in a worrying decline in form . However, after a convincing 1-0 victory over Real Madrid in the fourth match , they have an 11.34% probability of winning the Champions League.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/sieu-may-tinh-du-doan-arsenal-vo-dich-champions-league-196251107072405495.htm






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