Will the real estate market in 2024 attract large cash flows?

Economist , Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, commented that from now until before Tet, there will be a large amount of bank deposits maturing. When interest rates decrease, many investors will no longer be interested in saving. Instead, they will turn to investment channels that bring higher profits, including investing in real estate or investing in the production and business sectors because at the end of the year, people's consumption demand will increase.

If that is true, there will be a large cash flow into real estate, which is a positive signal to help the market gradually recover.

The real estate market in 2024 is expected to attract cash flow. (Illustration photo: Cong Hieu).

Sharing the same view, Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics, commented that since being heavily affected by the credit tightening policy and incidents related to bond issuance since mid-2022, the real estate market has literally been immobile.

Trading conditions are sluggish, investor confidence is shaken, difficulties are all around, and a series of businesses have to declare bankruptcy. Businesses that are still in the market must make many times more effort than before to overcome the challenges.

Since the beginning of 2023, the Government has issued many policies to remove difficulties and obstacles for businesses and the real estate market with a great determination to "break the ice" and restore the market in a healthy and sustainable direction.

One of the bright spots so far is that looser monetary policy has encouraged money to flow into investment channels rather than just savings.

This expert also said that the stock market has shown signs of improvement, recording a record increase in the number of newly opened accounts and liquidity has also increased again. If the market continues to move in this direction, in a short time, the cash flow will start to tend to take profits in the stock market and "flow" into the real estate market.

“ Such a shift in cash flow will bring expectations of increased liquidity for the real estate market, creating a stepping stone to record a recovery and gradually recover in 2024 ,” Mr. Huan commented.

Giving a more cautious prediction, economist Dr. Dinh The Hien stated that the cash flow into real estate will improve but not suddenly but gradually.

Explaining this statement, Mr. Hien analyzed that in 2012, the real estate market froze and bad debt appeared, causing congestion in many banks. At that time, the State had to spend 5 years to deal with it to stabilize. Up to now, bad debt is no longer a concern for banks, but real estate bonds have become a burden that hinders the flow of money into the market.

Therefore, in 2024, the cash flow into the real estate sector will gradually improve, not yet massively. The domestic economy and consumption will need the whole year of 2024 to overcome difficulties.

According to data from the Ministry of Construction , by the end of November 2023, outstanding credit for real estate business activities reached more than 1 million billion VND.
The report stated that outstanding credit for urban construction investment projects and housing development projects was VND283,876 billion; outstanding credit for office projects was VND39,096 billion; outstanding credit for industrial and export processing zone construction projects was VND67,557 billion; outstanding credit for tourism , ecological and resort projects was VND45,177 billion.
123,083 billion VND is the outstanding credit balance for loans for construction, repair, and houses for sale and rent; outstanding credit balance for loans to purchase land use rights is 68,694 billion VND; outstanding credit balance for other real estate investment and business is 335,565 billion VND.

Chau Anh

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