State budget revenue in 2025 increases sharply, exceeding estimates

State budget expenditure in 2025 is 2,577.2 billion VND. Photo: Anh Tu

State budget revenue in 2025 is estimated at 2,388.8 trillion VND

According to the Public Report on the State Budget Estimate for 2026 submitted by the Government to the National Assembly by the Ministry of Finance , the estimated State budget revenue for 2025 is 1,966.8 trillion VND; the State budget revenue in the first 9 months reached about 1,926 trillion VND, equal to 97.9% of the estimate, an increase of 30.5% over the same period in 2024.

Assessing the implementation of the whole year, the state budget revenue is estimated at 2,388.8 trillion VND, an increase of 421.9 trillion VND (+21.5%) compared to the estimate, an increase of 16.9% compared to the implementation in 2024. The mobilization rate into the state budget is about 18.7% of GDP, with tax and fee collection alone reaching 13.5% of GDP. Basically, it is estimated that all areas of state budget revenue have reached and exceeded the assigned estimate.

According to the Ministry of Finance, since the beginning of the year, the Government has directed the effective implementation of tax laws and state budget collection tasks. The implemented solutions, combined with the economic recovery, have had a positive impact on the state budget collection results in 2025.

The estimated state budget expenditure in 2025 is 2,577.2 billion VND; the actual state budget expenditure in 9 months is estimated at 1,634.8 trillion VND, equal to 63.4% of the estimate, an increase of 31.4% over the same period in 2024; the estimated state budget expenditure for the whole year (including increased expenditure for policy subjects according to Decree No. 178/2024/ND-CP and Decree No. 67/2025/ND-CP of the Government from the Central Budget's salary reform source and increased expenditure from increased state budget revenue) is 3,059.1 trillion VND, an increase of 481.9 trillion VND (+18.7%) compared to the estimate.

To complete the target of disbursing 100% of public investment capital by 2025, the Government and the Prime Minister request ministries, agencies and localities to urgently allocate capital plans that have been assigned but not yet allocated in detail according to regulations, regularly review and evaluate the disbursement situation for each project, clearly identify the shortcomings and weaknesses at each stage to promptly handle the shortcomings in site clearance, acceptance, settlement of investment capital and materials, etc.

Classify projects according to disbursement levels to transfer capital from slow-disbursing projects to good projects. At the same time, it is necessary to focus on implementing a two-tier local government model, quickly handling public investment problems, and stabilizing and arranging qualified staff to ensure disbursement progress.

The National Assembly's estimate of the state budget deficit in 2025 is 471.5 trillion VND, equivalent to 3.8% of GDP. Of which, the central budget deficit is 443.1 trillion VND; the local budget deficit is 28.4 trillion VND.

Based on the above-mentioned revenue and expenditure assessment of the State budget for the whole year, the State budget deficit is estimated at about 462 trillion VND, equivalent to about 3.6% of GDP, a decrease of about 9.5 trillion VND compared to the estimate. Of which, the estimated central budget deficit is equal to the estimate, the local budget deficit is reduced by about 9.5 trillion VND, due to the reduction in investment expenditure from borrowed capital of localities.

It is expected that by the end of 2025, public debt will be about 35-36% of GDP, government debt will be about 33-34% of GDP, and the government's direct debt repayment obligation will be about 19-20% of state budget revenue.

Estimated state budget revenue in 2026 increases by 28.6% compared to 2025

Inheriting the positive results achieved in 2025, our country enters 2026 with many expectations and breakthrough goals in the new era. Based on the assessment of the implementation of the State budget in 2025 and the socio-economic development plan in 2026 (expected GDP growth rate of 10% or more; average consumer price index (CPI) growth rate of about 4.5%), the Ministry of Finance estimates the State budget in 2026.

The estimated state budget revenue is 2,529.4 trillion VND, an increase of 28.6% compared to the 2025 estimate and an increase of 5.9% compared to the estimated implementation in 2025, the mobilization rate into the state budget is about 17.4% of GDP, of which from taxes and fees is about 13% of GDP.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the State budget revenue estimate is built at a positive level, closely following the double-digit economic growth target, in the context of the world economy still having many unpredictable fluctuations due to geopolitical complexities and the US's counterpart tax issue, requiring all levels and sectors to be highly determined to carry out the State budget revenue task right from the first months of the year.

The total state budget expenditure estimate in 2026 is about 3,159.1 trillion VND, an increase of 22.6% compared to the estimate in 2025.

The estimated state budget deficit in 2026 is VND 605.8 trillion (about 4.2% of GDP). Of which, the central budget deficit is VND 583.7 trillion (about 4.0% of GDP), and the local budget deficit is VND 22.1 trillion (about 0.2% of GDP).

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/thu-ngan-sach-nha-nuoc-2025-tang-manh-vuot-du-toan-3381357.html