UOB forecasts gold price to hit $3,600/ounce in Q1-2026

Gold prices are also expected to increase in the coming time - Photo: THANH HIEP

Gold prices are forecast to continue to increase by UOB

Exchange rate and interest rate strategy report May 2025 conducted by the global market and economic research department of UOB Bank (Singapore).

In this report, UOB said it continues to hold the view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to loosen monetary policy.

"Although the timing of the Fed's rate cuts has been pushed back, we still expect the Fed to deliver three 0.25% rate cuts this year.

The timing of these three cuts is updated at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in September, October and December, bringing the policy rate from 4.5% to 3.75% by the end of 2025," the report said.

According to UOB, all these factors create positive conditions for gold prices. In addition, expectations of a weakening USD and the possibility of capital flows back to gold ETFs in the US. Therefore, UOB maintains its positive view and raises its gold price forecast to USD 3,600/ounce in Q1-2026.

The US dollar had a volatile April, as rumors of de-dollarization spread across the market. The focus was on theories surrounding the “Mar-a-Lago Accord,” which is said to include trade tariffs and weaken the US dollar.

However, according to UOB, the real reason for the dollar sell-off after "Liberation Day" - especially when it fell sharply against the New Taiwan dollar (TWD) - could have come from many exporters simultaneously selling off the USD they had previously stored from export earnings.

The USD will continue to weaken against other major currencies. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD exchange rates will continue to increase. The JPY, in particular, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s gentler interest rate hike roadmap, will tend to appreciate gradually, reaching 140 USD/JPY in the first quarter of 2026.

Tension phase The most direct of the trade war is over

Regarding Asian currencies, although the volatile period in early April has passed, according to UOB, there are still many risks that can restrain the recovery of regional currencies.

These factors include uncertainty surrounding the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as rapid appreciation of Asian currencies while the economic and trade outlook in the region is weakening.

Overall, the recent strong rally in Asian currencies has been somewhat overdone, but we have reduced our forecast peaks for the USD against other Asian currencies in 3Q25, reflecting the possibility that the worst of the trade war has passed.

Notably, VND was a special case in the strong recovery of regional currencies in April, when VND decreased by 1.6% in the month, down to 25,990 VND/USD.

Updated forecasts for the USD/VND exchange rate are: 26,100 VND/USD in Q2-2025, 26,300 VND/USD in Q3-2025, 26,000 VND/USD in Q4-2025, and 25,800 VND/USD in Q1-2026.

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Source: https://tuoitre.vn/uob-du-bao-gia-vang-cham-muc-3-600-usd-ounce-vao-quy-1-2026-20250513224522115.htm