Vietnam could be among the world's top 25 economies by 2038

The CEBR Consulting Center (UK) assessed that Vietnam will be the 34th largest economy in 2023 and will rank 21st globally in 2038.

CEBR, the UK's independent economic forecasting and analysis center with 30 years of experience, has just released its 14th annual world economic outlook report. According to this ranking on the World Economic League Table (WELT), Vietnam's economic scale is forecast to make a leap in the next 14 years.

This year, Vietnam is expected to be ranked 33rd on the WELT table, up 1 place compared to 2023. Vietnam's ranking could increase rapidly, to 24th place in 2033 before becoming the world's 21st largest economy in 2038.

With the advantage of a large and young population, Vietnam has the opportunity to surpass almost all ASEAN countries in terms of economy such as Singapore, Thailand or Malaysia, and become a high-income country by 2045, according to CEBR.

Assessing the economy last year, this organization recognized that Vietnam had strong growth and inflation remained low. That is, it did not have to trade off between growth and inflation like many other countries. According to data from the General Statistics Office (GSO), GDP increased by 5.05% and inflation by 3.25%.

The consumer price increase in 2023 is also lower than the 10-year average inflation rate of 3.8%. This creates room for Vietnam's monetary policy.

At the same time, the unemployment rate fell last year, helping to boost consumer spending; the government debt ratio in 2023 is expected to be 35% of GDP, down about 1.3 percentage points compared to 2022.

On the other hand, Vietnam has also benefited from the shift in global supply chains. The share of Vietnamese goods exported to the US has increased by nearly 2% since the US-China trade tensions escalated in 2018. This has also been complemented by strong FDI flows from other Asian economies, including China.

CEBR forecasts annual GDP growth to average 6.7% between 2024 and 2028. This will be 6.4% over the next nine years.

Along with Vietnam, the Philippines is also considered a country with impressive growth, which can reach the 23rd position by 2038. According to CERB, Vietnam and the Philippines are outstanding examples of the group of countries expected to improve their rankings thanks to repositioning in the global value chain, internal reforms, increased labor productivity, and public and private investment.

The CEBR's assessment refers to the size of the economy, not to average income in a country, the divide between rich and poor or other issues.

Vnexpress.net

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