Experts predict that VN-Index may return to the peak of 1,500 in 2026 - Photo: AI drawing
Profit-taking pressure from hot stocks, stocks fall
The first trading session of the week (June 9) witnessed a sharp decline in the VN-Index when the index lost nearly 20 points, mainly due to adjustment pressure from large-cap stocks.
Speaking with Tuoi Tre Online , Mr. Nguyen Quoc Tuyen - head of TVI Securities analysis department - commented that this was a somewhat inevitable development after a series of 9 consecutive weeks of increase without any short-term profit-taking.
"The market is currently in an 'information vacuum' of the second quarter, as the business results of enterprises in July have just been announced, with no clear supporting factors.
In such a context, macro factors, especially news related to trade negotiations between Vietnam and the US, have a stronger impact on investor sentiment," Mr. Tuyen said.
Meanwhile, this week and next week are the next stages of the negotiation process. Pressure from this factor, combined with the fact that large-cap stocks related to Vingroup such as VIC, VHM or the Gelex group have just experienced a hot increase, are now facing a strong increase in profit-taking selling pressure.
In today's session alone, VIC and VHM's floor price decrease took away 11/19 points of VN-Index's decrease. When leading stocks correct in the context of the market lacking supportive information, fear easily prevails.
In the short term, the expert predicts that the market will continue to fluctuate, investors should limit new purchases, and even reduce their holdings to ensure safety. However, in the medium and long term, Mr. Tuyen still maintains that Vietnam's stock market has good prospects.
VN-Index to 1,500 points next year?
In the latest update report, SGI Capital also gave some notes on the developments in Vietnam's financial market amid negotiations with the US on tariffs.
SGI Capital expects the average tax rate to fluctuate between 15-20%, creating positive conditions for businesses with manufacturing origins in Vietnam.
The negotiation results will be an important basis for domestic and foreign investors to identify investment opportunities and make disbursement decisions.
Meanwhile, exchange rates and monetary policy remain under control, according to SGI Capital. Although the VND has depreciated 2.2% since the beginning of the year, while many Southeast Asian currencies have appreciated around 5%, this has brought a competitive advantage to Vietnam's exports.
With the downward trend of the USD Index, exchange rate pressure is not expected to be too great in the second half of the year, SGI Capital experts forecast.
According to FiinPro, the whole market's after-tax profit is expected to increase by about 14% in 2025, of which the financial sector will increase by about 17%.
On the positive side, corporate profit growth is relying more on the domestic market.
Thus, the current valuation is still in the cheap range and has a lot of room to increase, according to SGI Capital.
SGI Capital believes that with a profit growth rate of 10-15% per year and low P/E and P/B valuations, VN-Index can completely return to the peak of 1,500 in 2026.
If foreign investors return to net buying or Vietnam is upgraded, the valuation and score of the entire market will be raised to new heights.
What should investors note?
It can be seen that in the context of waiting for information from trade negotiations, the market will likely enter an accumulation phase, differentiated into groups of stocks with their own stories.
Investors need to observe carefully, avoid chasing buying during uptrends and should prioritize businesses with solid foundations that are less dependent on external fluctuations.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/vn-index-vua-tang-manh-da-quay-dau-giam-do-ap-luc-chot-loi-20250609170737614.htm
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