What do experts predict about the meeting between US leaders?

Experts say that trust between the US and China may not be enough for the upcoming meeting between the two leaders to produce significant results.

“Neither the United States nor China will enter a potential meeting between President Biden and President Xi with the desire to significantly improve or reset the relationship,” said Bonny Lin, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. “Instead, the meeting will be aimed at managing and stabilizing the bilateral relationship, improving communication and reducing misunderstandings. ”

If the talks proceed without major hitches, the big plus will be the message the two leaders send to their respective bureaucracies that re-engagement in bilateral activities, however cautious, is back on the agenda.

“The most important thing is that it sends a signal to their system that the two sides need to talk and the rest of the system will come into play,” said Bonny Glaser. “It might be harder to get a lot of things done without that higher-level meeting.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden. (Photo: AP)

It is difficult to have a joint statement.

Potential areas for the meeting include an agreement to deepen negotiations or modest cooperation on climate change, fentanyl and artificial intelligence. Another area ripe for action is improving communications between the Pentagon and the Chinese military, as military channels were disrupted after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan 14 months ago.

But neither the US nor China has been able to get what they want from the other.

For the US, it means assurances that “reckless” behavior and aggressive maneuvers by Chinese ships, fighter jets and paramilitary “gray zone” forces will cease and that effective hotlines and other channels of communication will be open if an incident occurs.

Alongside this is a renewed serious commitment to strategic stability, arms control and nuclear negotiations. Although the two sides have held rare arms control talks and a meeting on the South China Sea in recent days, these talks have been led by diplomats , not military personnel.

“I don’t think they want the crisis to really spiral out of control, although they do want the higher risks to force other parties to back down,” said Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

For China, it means ending punitive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which will continue under Biden. Another major priority is ending US export restrictions imposed by Washington on China on advanced semiconductors and other technologies with potential military applications.

“They are coming to understand that the Biden administration is pursuing an even more aggressive path than the Trump administration in terms of complexity, breadth and scope in terms of technology restrictions,” said Jude Blanchette of CSIS.

Beijing sees the upcoming meeting as an opportunity to try to change this trajectory, or at least find a way to slow the pace of US action . “I think they will be disappointed,” Blanchette added.

Beijing will also seek assurances on its Taiwan policies.

Analysts also say China is interested in easing tensions — even if it only lasts until November 2024 (when the US presidential election takes place) — so it can focus on other domestic issues.

“ The Chinese are interested in stabilizing the relationship in the short term. That’s tactical, not strategic,” Glaser commented. “It would be good to stabilize the relationship in the next year, even if there is a new US president. And they need more time for their economy .”

The results behind the lens

Another important outcome will take place off-camera as the two try to size each other up, according to experts.

For the Chinese, that includes assessing how committed the US side is to its technology export restrictions; and how much wiggle room there is in Washington’s “smaller yard, higher fence” strategy of tighter restrictions on fewer items.

For Americans, this means assessing how seriously Mr. Xi takes China’s economic problems.

“The most important thing to get from a meeting with Xi is not the outcome. It’s the ability to look him in the eye and try to understand a little bit about how he thinks about issues, and get some messages from him,” said Cooper, a former US Defense Department official.

But other experts say the meeting's potential for meaningful insights is also low.

“We assumed they would have a real conversation, but in reality, many of these were highly scripted and involved reading and rereading articles. It was not a very comfortable conversation,” said Jeffrey Moon, founder of China Moon Strategies, a Washington-based consultancy.

Phuong Anh (Source: South China Morning Post)

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