Exactly a decade ago, pepper exports officially became a billion-dollar agricultural product (reaching 1.2 billion USD in 2014) of Vietnam. In 2015, pepper prices reached a historic peak of 230 million VND/ton.

"The price of gold at that time was about 35 million VND/tael. That is, 1 ton of pepper cost 230 million VND, equivalent to 6.5 taels of gold. This is also the reason why many people considered pepper to be the 'black gold' product of Vietnam at that time," Mr. Phan Minh Thong - Chairman of Phuc Sinh Group recalled the golden age of pepper.

However, farmers in many provinces have massively expanded pepper growing areas, even in areas not suitable for this crop, causing output to increase sharply, supply to exceed demand, leading to continuous sharp price drops. At times, pepper prices fell below cost, farmers suffered heavy losses, significantly reduced their acreage or switched to other crops.

Pepper prices have been falling steadily, and the position of the billion-dollar pepper industry has only been maintained for 4 years (from 2014-2017). In 2018, the export turnover of this “black gold” product of our country decreased to nearly 759 million USD.

This year, pepper is expected to enter a new price increase cycle after many years of “rock bottoming out”. In fact, the skyrocketing price and high level since the beginning of the year have brought pepper back to its billion-dollar heyday.

According to preliminary statistics, in September this year, our country exported 20,000 tons of pepper, earning 125 million USD. Compared to the same period last year, pepper exports increased by 10.4% in volume but value skyrocketed by 84.9%.

By the end of September, our country earned more than 1 billion USD from the sale of 203,000 tons of "black gold". Although the export volume decreased slightly by 1.5% compared to the same period last year, the value increased sharply by 46.9%.

The reason is that the export price of pepper increased sharply by 49.2% compared to the same period last year, to 4,941 USD/ton.

Notably, last September, the average export price of "black gold" reached 6,239 USD/ton, an increase of 67.5% compared to the same period last year and this was also the month with the highest export price in many years.

In the world market, at the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Association (IPC) listed the price of Vietnamese black pepper at 6,800 USD/ton for 500g/l; 550g/l at 7,100 USD/ton; and white pepper at 10,150 USD/ton.

Meanwhile, pepper prices in the domestic market range from 146,000-150,000 VND/kg depending on the type.

The Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) forecasts that world pepper prices will remain high in the short term due to limited supply. Brazil and Indonesia are in the harvest season, while world demand is not increasing strongly, along with China not buying much, leading to prices only being able to increase slightly.

However, in the long term, pepper export prices will still be supported, because Vietnam's output of this commodity in the 2025 crop is expected to decrease. The 2025 pepper crop in our country will be harvested almost entirely in February, with some regions extending to March and April, 1-2 months later than previous years due to the impact of prolonged drought.

Accordingly, this “black gold” industry of Vietnam will benefit from high export prices due to limited supply. According to information from the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), the amount of pepper in the population is almost gone, only remaining in agents and warehouses of enterprises.

The leader of the Vietnam Pepper Association said that in the next 3-5 years, global pepper output will still not be enough to meet consumer demand. Sellers are looking to establish a connection in the Vietnamese pepper industry to avoid a situation of massive orders in the market and control prices.

Experts also said that pepper has entered a new price increase cycle. This cycle will last 10-15 years and the price may peak at 350,000-400,000 VND/kg.

Since the beginning of the year, the export price of "black gold" has increased sharply, helping Vietnamese businesses earn nearly 900 million USD by selling this strong product.