Although his days in command of the Ukrainian Army seem to be numbered, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi has called for “a complete redesign of all operations on the battlefield – and the abandonment of outdated, stereotypical thinking”.
Ukraine's top general, in an article published on CNN on February 1, also called for an urgent upgrade of the country's high-tech warfare capabilities to overcome Russia's larger and better-equipped forces "and ensure the survival of the state."
Days earlier, Mr. Zaluzhnyi, 50, was reportedly informed by President Volodymyr Zelensky that he would be dismissed, but as of the morning of February 2, a formal decree dismissing the general from his post as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had not yet appeared, the Washington Post quoted a senior official as saying.
Tension is pushed to a new "climax"
Relations between Mr Zaluzhnyi and Mr Zelensky have been strained for months since the Ukrainian army’s failed counteroffensive last year, but were pushed to a new “climax” at the meeting on January 29 partly due to disagreements over plans to mobilize 500,000 more troops.
General Zaluzhnyi, a notoriously “outspoken” man, has never backed down in his clashes with the President. His CNN article did not name Mr. Zelensky but was a notable rebuke of the President on what has become a “hot potato” that has been tossed back and forth between the military and the government .
Not considering the need for more troops, Mr Zelensky has also publicly criticised Mr Zaluzhnyi’s comments in an interview with The Economist last November, in which the Ukrainian commander-in-chief said the war had reached a “stalemate”.
Indeed, Mr Zaluzhnyi's assessment – that the front lines had all but stalled and that the war was a war of attrition, with little forward movement on either side – is now widely accepted.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi, November 2023. Photo: Bloomberg
“We must recognize the significant advantage that the enemy has in mobilizing human resources and compare it with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower level of our armed forces without resorting to unpopular measures,” Zaluzhnyi wrote in an article for CNN.
Mr Zaluzhnyi has not commented publicly on his dismissal, which poses a huge risk for Mr Zelensky given his popularity within the military and with the wider Ukrainian public. There are signs of a backlash from commanders on the ground, and there is no indication that a new commander will be able to quickly improve Ukraine’s difficult situation on the ground.
On the same day the news broke domestically and internationally, Zelensky's spokesman, Serhiy Nykyforov, denied that the President had fired the General, but has not responded to any requests for comment since.
As of the morning of February 2, the press secretary of the President of Ukraine also did not respond to requests for comment on General Zaluzhnyi's article published on CNN the previous day.
But some observers remain sceptical. “There was an attempt to persuade Zaluzhnyi to voluntarily transfer to another job. It was not very successful, so the matter was postponed. But the dismissal is only a matter of time and circumstances,” Kiev-based analyst Volodymyr Fesenko told Al Jazeera.
"Painful" concern for military reform
With Russia stepping up its attacks at multiple points on the battlefield, Ukraine's most famous general frankly "named and shamed" the Eastern European country's military challenges in the article.
First, there is no denying that the Russian military is much better equipped and currently controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory, including the Crimean peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014.
Second, Ukraine is facing reduced military support from key allies who are “struggling with their own political tensions.” A roughly $60 billion aid package proposed by the Biden administration has stalled in the US Congress amid opposition from some Republicans.
A bright spot in the international aid picture was that on February 1, the European Union (EU) approved an aid package worth about 54 billion USD (50 billion Euros) after weeks of delay due to opposition from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
“Our partners’ stocks of missiles, air defense interceptors and artillery ammunition are running low, due to the intensity of the conflict in Ukraine and the global shortage of propellant,” Zaluzhnyi said in the article.
Map assessing the situation on the ground in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as of February 1, 2024. Source: ISW, Critical Threats Project
The Ukrainian general also criticized the “weakness of the international sanctions regime” of Western partners, which he said meant that “Russia, in cooperation with a number of other countries, can still deploy its military-industrial complex to pursue a war of attrition” against Ukraine.
He suggested that the key to Ukraine's victory was a profound upgrade of future combat capabilities, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones).
Ukraine's “number one priority” should be to create an arsenal of “relatively cheap, modern and highly effective weapons, unmanned vehicles as well as other technological means,” such as electronic warfare and cyber warfare.
He believes that it is necessary to create a completely new technological rearmament system, in which high-tech strategy will provide real-time intelligence to Ukrainian forces, weaken the enemy and put fewer soldiers in danger, thereby reducing the level of human losses.
Importantly, Mr. Zaluzhnyi believes that it will not take Ukraine long to achieve this goal. “Given the current circumstances, I think that it is quite possible to create such a system in five months,” he said.
Potential risks
Amid the exposure of instability at the highest levels of Ukraine's wartime government, coupled with delays in arms deliveries from allies to Kiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin are said to be the happiest and most benefited.
Russia has said Ukraine's leaders are divided, after Mr Zelensky was reported to have tried to pressure Mr Zaluzhnyi to resign.
AFP news agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as telling journalists in Moscow that media reports of the attempted dismissals showed “growing differences” between Ukraine’s civilian and military leadership.
Ukrainian President Zelensky himself has not commented on the reports – which some see as a deliberate leak to test public opinion on the idea of a change in military leadership.
Ukrainian soldiers fire an M2 Browning during a training session in the Donetsk region, early February 2024. Photo: Getty Images
In Moscow on January 31, Mr. Peskov said that the stalemate, if it really happened, was the inevitable result of the Ukrainian armed forces getting bogged down.
“It is clear that the failed counteroffensive and problems on the fronts are leading to growing differences between representatives of the Kiev regime – both the military and civilian leadership,” Peskov said, noting that these differences will only increase as Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine continues to be successful.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict will mark two years this month, with neither side making significant gains on the battlefield in more than a year.
The Kremlin spokesman also said Russia was monitoring developments surrounding the incident involving Ukraine's top general.
Another risk for Kiev is that the split between its military and political leadership could raise doubts in the United States and Europe about the clarity of its intended war strategy this year. That would add to existing tensions in rallying support to help Kiev push back against Moscow .
Minh Duc (According to Washington Post, Bloomberg, The Guardian)
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