Ukraine 'accepts fate', will Russia win?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has just sent a message indicating his readiness to abandon conditions that Kyiv once considered "non-negotiable" in order to move towards negotiations with Russia.

In an interview with Sky News on November 29, President Zelensky said that if Kyiv could join NATO, so that the territories it still controls could be protected by the alliance, then it might agree to a ceasefire.

Compromise with reality

This statement implies that Kyiv has not yet set preconditions for Moscow to return the territories it controls in Ukraine in exchange for joining NATO and ending the war. Throughout this period, Kyiv has repeatedly stated that it will not negotiate unless Moscow returns the occupied Ukrainian territories.

This development is not surprising. As Thanh Nien newspaper analyzed, the increased attacks on each other by both Russia and Ukraine since mid-November can be likened to the last-minute efforts of two football teams. "The final whistle will blow soon after January 20, 2025 (when Mr. Trump takes office)," according to an analysis from experts at Eurasia Group (USA) – a leading global political risk research and consulting firm.

Ukrainian soldiers during a military exercise on November 22.

Washington will use aid as leverage to pressure Kyiv into negotiations, even without Moscow returning the occupied territories. Conversely, Moscow will also be pressured into negotiations under military pressure as Washington increases its arms support to Kyiv.

Without US aid, Ukraine would find it difficult to maintain its combat capabilities. Therefore, if Kyiv "accepts its fate," it could exchange it for future reconstruction aid and have a chance to join NATO.

Zelensky's new calculations for NATO to protect Ukraine.

The situation is gradually becoming clearer.

Meanwhile, the war is causing Russia considerable difficulties. First, Western sanctions have severely damaged the Russian economy . Furthermore, the recent drop in oil prices has seriously harmed Moscow's revenue.

To combat rising inflation, in October, the Russian Central Bank raised its policy interest rate by 2 percentage points to 21%. This is the country's highest interest rate ever set to combat inflation. Furthermore, the Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, has threatened to raise the policy interest rate even further.

However, the aforementioned tight monetary policy has drawn increasing criticism from leading Russian industrialists. For example, metal tycoon Oleg Deripaska, billionaire Alexey Mordashov (Chairman of Severstal Group, Russia's leading steel and mining conglomerate), and businessman Sergey Chemezov (head of the influential Russian defense conglomerate Rostec) have all voiced their opposition, according to Politico . At a conference in St. Petersburg on November 27th, billionaire Mordashov criticized the Russian Central Bank's policy as "medicine that is more harmful than the disease."

In this context, ending the war while still achieving "accomplishments" domestically would be the best possible option. These "accomplishments" refer to Russia's seizure of some Ukrainian territory. In fact, Moscow has recently repeatedly expressed its willingness to negotiate.

However, even if Russia seizes these territories, ending the military campaign does not guarantee that Moscow has achieved its goals. In his February 2022 speech announcing the military operation against Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that Russia could not feel safe, develop, and survive while facing a perpetual threat from Ukraine. The threat he referred to was the risk of NATO incorporating Ukraine as it expanded eastward. Therefore, Putin declared that Moscow was "seeking the demilitarization" of Kyiv. However, it is clear that Moscow has not achieved this. Furthermore, after Moscow's military advance, Sweden and Finland joined NATO. If Ukraine is also admitted, NATO will move closer to Russia's borders. To the west of Russia, the only remaining "buffer zone" between the country and NATO is Belarus.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers deserted?

Defense News reported on November 29, citing Ukrainian soldiers, lawyers, and officials, that thousands of soldiers have deserted, fleeing their frontline combat positions. Some commanders and soldiers said that in some areas, entire units abandoned their positions, leaving their defensive lines vulnerable to enemy control while their comrades were in danger.

Some requested leave for medical reasons but never returned. Some clashed with commanders and disobeyed orders, sometimes in the midst of combat. Some reported feeling exhausted by the intensity of the fighting, suffering psychological and emotional distress.

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Source: https://thanhnien.vn/ukraine-chap-nhan-so-phan-nga-co-chien-thang-185241130224829077.htm