Stock market week 9/3 – 9/5: Market after holiday, what to note?

Stocks soar, set records; List of potential stocks in September; Important information in September; Dividend payment schedule; Market expected to surpass 1,800 points by the end of the year.

VN-Index soars

The market ended August with four consecutive weeks of positive gains, despite a sharp divergence in the final week of the month. This was the strongest month in more than seven and a half years in percentage terms (since January 2018), and one of the strongest breakout months in history.

VN-Index closed the month at 1,682.21 points, up 11.96% compared to July and up 32.8% compared to the end of 2024. Meanwhile, VN30 ended the month at 1,865.38 points, up 15.49% compared to July and up 38.7% compared to the end of 2024.

VN-Index in August increased the most since January 2018 (Screenshot: SSI iBoard)

The Vietnamese stock market (TTCK) increased strongly with liquidity setting a new record, reaching 44,970.5 billion VND at the end of last week, maintaining a high level, up 22% compared to the 20-week average.

Regarding industry groups, green dominated as 18 out of 21 industry groups increased points. The three leading groups were Securities (+12.51%), Retail (+6.89%) and Steel (+5.35%). On the contrary, Oil and Gas (-4.0%), Industrial Real Estate (-0.72%) and Chemicals (-0.65%) were the only three industry groups under adjustment pressure this week.

Regarding foreign investors, the net selling movement continued, reaching VND11,138 billion at the end of the week. In particular, the focus was on HPG ( Hoa Phat Steel, HOSE) reaching VND2,624 billion, VPB (VPBank, HOSE) reaching VND1,448 billion, SSI (SSI Securities, HOSE) reaching VND894 billion. On the contrary, GMD (Gemadept, HOSE) with VND489 billion, VND (VNDirect Securities, HOSE) with VND220 billion, MSB (MSB, HOSE) with VND189 billion were the three stocks with the most net buying.

Market hotspots early September

Information from the world market, US stocks have just ended a vibrant August with a series of price increases lasting above historical peaks. Not only stocks, other investment channels also recorded remarkable fluctuations. World gold prices increased by 4.8%, the highest level since April 2025, thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon lower interest rates.

In the cryptocurrency market, Ether unexpectedly replaced Bitcoin to become the leading "star", driven by a favorable legal environment, a wave of interest in stablecoins (cryptocurrencies) and large companies hoarding Ether.

On the macro front, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – rose 2.9% year-on-year, the highest since February 2025. This week, the market awaits the US government’s August jobs report. According to a Reuters survey, the world’s number one economy is forecast to have added about 75,000 jobs, not much different from the disappointing figure in July. This information plays a role in the Fed’s decision on monetary policy.

Entering September, after the National Day holiday, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly. According to SHS Research, the VN-Index is maintaining a support zone of nearly 1,650 points, while the 1,600-point mark plays an important "defensive" role. In addition, some other comments believe that the short-term accumulation state is still dominant, making the "sideways" scenario inevitable when liquidity decreases.

An important support for the market is the State Bank's recent flexible exchange rate policy, combined with expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates, creating a foundation to support capital flows and trigger positive sentiment for the stock market. In addition, the story of market upgrading continues to be a major catalyst.

Post-holiday market

For the whole month of August 2025, VN-Index increased by nearly 180 points, equivalent to nearly 12%, closing at 1,682.2 points. Average matched liquidity decreased by nearly 29% compared to the previous week, reflecting the cautious sentiment of investors in the period approaching the September 2nd holiday.

Yuanta Securities statistics show that the VN-Index usually increases by an average of 1% and 1.4% in the 3-5 days before the September 2 holiday. After the holiday, the index still maintains its upward momentum but tends to cool down when entering the less favorable cycle of September.

After the holiday, liquidity is likely to remain high, but in terms of points, the VN-Index is approaching a high valuation zone in the short term.

Stocks leading the market last week (Screenshot: SSI iBoard)

In a positive scenario, large-cap stocks may continue to lead, but cash flow is likely to shift to mid- and small-cap stocks with good fundamentals. In the short term, industrial parks, seafood, electricity, oil and gas services, and raw materials (rubber, stone, steel) are expected to grow thanks to their stable characteristics and suitability to foreign investors' tastes.

In addition, the banking group still plays a pivotal role thanks to the advantage of low interest rates; the securities group benefits from abundant liquidity in the whole market, plus expectations of upgrading. The real estate, industrial park, construction and public investment sectors are also forecast to have prospects thanks to the Government's policy of expanding credit and promoting public investment disbursement.

Stock roll call September 2025

Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities (MAS) has just released a list of medium and long-term stock recommendations for September 2025 with the potential to increase in price by up to 31% in 12 months, including: FPT (FPT, HOSE), CTR (Viettel Construction, HOSE), VNM (Vinamilk, HOSE), TNG (TNG, HNX), PVS (Vietnam Oil and Gas Engineering, HNX), PLX (Petrolimex Nghe Tinh, HNX), VSH (Vinh Son - Song Hinh Hydropower, HOSE), GEG (Gia Lai Electricity, HOSE), BWE (Binh Duong Water - Environment, HOSE).

Notably, Vinamilk (VNM) is a notable name with an expected increase of 31%. Since the beginning of the year, VNM has decreased slightly by nearly 2%, almost standing outside the strong growth wave of the market, while VN-Index has increased by 33%, surpassing the old peak of 2022.

The overseas market will become the main growth driver for VNM. Due to the slow recovery of domestic demand, domestic revenue will only grow thanks to product price increases, at an average of 2%/year. MAS forecasts VNM's revenue in 2025 to reach VND64,156 billion (+3.8% YoY), with expected net profit of VND9,509 billion (+0.6%).

Based on a required return of 11% and a long-term growth rate after 2034 of 3%, VNM is valued at VND79,100/share.

In addition, the oil and gas group including PVS and PLX are both highly appreciated with the potential to increase by 30% and 31% respectively.

For PVS, thanks to the Block B project and other projects, it is expected to contribute about VND200 billion/year in future associated profits, equivalent to 33% of PVS's 5-year average. MAS sets a target for PVS of VND44,000/share.

Meanwhile, PLX benefits from the Ministry of Industry and Trade allowing traders to decide on retail prices based on actual supply and demand, instead of being bound by fixed cost components. MAS forecasts PLX's net profit compound growth in the 2025-2030 period to reach 13.5%, thereby valuing it at VND47,300/share.

With the electricity - water group with 3 stocks GEG, VSH and BWE. And the technology group is FPT, CTR.

VN-Index expected to surpass 1,800 points by year-end

In the strategic report for the last months of the year, Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) assessed the growth momentum of VN-Index in July and August. VN-Index has conquered the highest level at 1,688 points (August 26, 2025) and is moving closer to the peak of the era.

With expectations of market upgrade, drastic policies to boost growth and the next steps from flexible diplomacy, VCBS expects VN-Index to continue to conquer the positive scenario at 1,838 points in the last months of 2025.

VCBS believes that in the process of going up, the market certainly cannot avoid strong fluctuations, even with the risk of reversal with notable risks such as the emergence of high inflation pressure and changes and reversals in monetary policy.

Investment strategies need to be prioritized based on capitalization factors, including 5 internal industry groups, especially internal industry groups such as Banking, Securities, Real Estate, Consumer Retail and Construction.

Comments and recommendations

Mr. Dang Van Cuong , Head of Investment Consulting , Mirae Asset Securities , VN-Index had a positive trading week when it continued to test the resistance zone of 1,700 points, the securities group broke through the historical peak and became a bright spot contributing positively to the index.

The market is expected to continue to conquer new peaks in September. Although the increase last week was divergent, this can be considered a necessary "accumulation in an uptrend" phase to consolidate the price base. The temporary stagnation of the VN-Index around the 1,700-point mark mainly reflects psychological factors, while demand remains good and continuously absorbs selling pressure during fluctuations.

VN-Index enters "uptrend accumulation" zone

The recent large net selling activity of foreign investors is a noteworthy factor that can create certain pressure on the market.

Although foreign net selling creates short-term pressure, the solid internal factors of the economy are consolidating the growth momentum of the stock market in the coming time. Key drivers such as the possibility of market upgrade, expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy and stable corporate profit growth are creating the foundation for improving valuations, while strengthening investor confidence.

Therefore, the reasonable strategy is to take advantage of technical corrections to increase the proportion, instead of chasing when the index approaches the resistance zone. Investors should prioritize the securities group because it benefits from liquidity and upgrade expectations, industrial real estate and infrastructure thanks to the momentum of public investment. At the same time, select some leading banking codes that are under profit-taking pressure but still have room for growth. At the same time, it is advisable to maintain 20-25% cash for defense and be ready to disburse when the market fluctuates.

Phu Hung Securities commented that the index has stalled at the resistance zone of 1,690 - 1,700 points, the trend is to find a balance point and accumulate again. Technical indicators have improved but have not confirmed the end of the correction. Cash flow is circulating quickly, there is strong differentiation, many stocks have broken the trend and have not recovered. VN-Index may continue to fluctuate sideways around the threshold of 1,680 points. The general strategy is to focus on leading stocks in the industry, investors should not rush to chase prices when the signal is not clear. Priority groups are Banking, Real Estate, Securities, Utilities (Electricity).

TPS Securities It is believed that after the index touched the resistance of 1,694 points, selling pressure pulled the index back, although it still closed in the green. The 1,694 point area is considered a sensitive psychological resistance area. If the selling pressure is not too strong, the index may fluctuate within the range of 1,600 - 1,700 points to accumulate upward momentum.

Dividend schedule this week

According to statistics, there are 14 businesses that have decided to pay dividends in the week of September 3-5, of which 13 businesses pay in cash and 1 business pays mixed dividends.

The highest rate is 100%, the lowest is 3%.

1 business pays mixed:

Bach Tuyet Cotton Joint Stock Company (BBT, UPCoM) pays dividends in two forms: cash and additional issuance. With the additional issuance, the ex-dividend date is September 5, with a rate of 100%.

Cash dividend payment schedule

*Ex-right date: is the transaction date on which the buyer, upon establishing ownership of shares, will not enjoy related rights such as the right to receive dividends, the right to purchase additional issued shares, but will still enjoy the right to attend the shareholders' meeting.

Code	Floor	GDKHQ Day	Date TH	Proportion
IST	UPCOM	3/9	15/9	20.5%
GSM	UPCOM	3/9	6/10	20%
PSP	UPCOM	3/9	7/11	3%
V12	HNX	4/9	6/10	6%
VDL	HNX	4/9	September 30	15%
PSW	HNX	4/9	24/9	5%
HTV	HOSE	4/9	9/25	3%
SZC	HOSE	4/9	7/10	10%
BSC	HNX	4/9	19/9	10%
DVN	UPCOM	4/9	September 30	10%
PIS	UPCOM	5/9	16/9	10%
TNP	UPCOM	5/9	9/22	20%
DRL	HOSE	5/9	9/29	20%
BBT	UPCOM	5/9	6/10	5%

Source: https://phunuvietnam.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-3-9-5-9-thi-truong-sau-nghi-le-can-luu-y-gi-20250903081029971.htm