Winter-Spring rice is purchased by traders in Vi Thuy district, Hau Giang province. Illustrative photo: VNA

At the workshop, CIEM economic experts presented the report "Vietnam's economy in 2023 and prospects for 2024: Reforms to accelerate growth recovery" with 2 scenarios forecasting Vietnam's economic prospects in 2024.

Specifically, Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 could reach 6.13% in scenario 1, and 6.48% in scenario 2. Along with that, exports for the whole year are forecast to increase by 4.02% in scenario 1 and 5.19% in scenario 2. The trade surplus is forecast at 5.64 billion USD and 6.26 billion USD, respectively. Average inflation in 2024 is forecast at 3.94% and 3.72%, respectively.

Speaking at the workshop, Ms. Tran Thi Hong Minh, Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, assessed that 2024 will still face many difficulties for the Vietnamese economy in particular and the world in general. However, if the quality of institutional reform is maintained and deepened, the Vietnamese economy can be confident in its ability to achieve positive results in the coming time.

In fact, Vietnam has not only relied on fiscal and monetary solutions to promote economic growth, but has also created many new driving forces from economic institutional reform. These driving forces come from promoting innovation, developing new economic models, reforming the business environment, restructuring the economy, perfecting regional planning and institutions. The Government has also frankly and receptively acknowledged the issues that need to be resolved; including the backlog of documents, discipline and order in public service activities, difficulties in capital absorption, etc., in order to have directions and research to resolve them.

“The recommendations of many experts on increasing fiscal and monetary expansion to stimulate economic growth are also based on the assessment of improving the foundation of institutional quality and capacity for reform and macroeconomic management. If the quality of institutional reform is maintained and deepened, the Vietnamese economy can be confident in its ability to achieve positive results in the coming time,” emphasized Director Tran Thi Hong Minh.

Presenting the Vietnam Economic Report in 2023 and Prospects for 2024, Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong, Head of the General Research Department, CIEM, said that the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 increased by 5.05%, 1.45 percentage points lower than the set target (6.5%). "This result has improved between quarters and has a positive recovery," said Mr. Nguyen Anh Duong.

Notably, according to CIEM experts, the economic growth recovery is not accompanied by increased inflationary pressure. The business sector will witness positive changes in the second half of 2023.

CIEM's report also assessed the results of two years of implementing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The Government and the Prime Minister have issued documents related to the organization of RCEP implementation. The results in the period 2018 - 2023, although further monitoring is needed, show that the proportion of Vietnam's import and export with countries participating in the RCEP Agreement generally continues to decrease. The rate of preferential utilization in RCEP is still relatively low (0.67%).

However, the perspective on taking advantage of incentives in FTAs ​​in the RCEP region needs to be expanded, because RCEP was established on the basis of a series of FTAs ​​in the East Asia region. Therefore, the realization of RCEP has created more motivation for activities to take advantage of FTAs ​​in this region (including ASEAN FTAs) even in the difficult context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Therefore, experts recommend that Vietnam needs to continue to address a number of challenges in the implementation of RCEP in the coming time; including challenges in improving the rate of preferential utilization, risks of increasing trade deficit with some partners in RCEP, and ensuring the quality of FDI projects from the RCEP region. The biggest challenge is to raise awareness and thoroughly educate agencies and enterprises about appropriate thinking to effectively approach and exploit opportunities from RCEP.

“The report “Vietnam’s Economy in 2023 and Outlook for 2024: Reforms to Accelerate Growth Recovery” emphasizes that policy priorities need to continue to focus on promoting economic growth recovery, on the basis of solidly improving the microeconomic foundation and reforming the economic institutional system towards being more friendly to innovation and the environment, associated with effectively handling risks in the volatile international economic environment,” CIEM experts said.

According to VNA