Is the flow of aid from the US to Ukraine about to dry up?

This month, the US announced $1.2 billion in assistance that includes drones, artillery, air defense systems, software and technical support to connect Ukraine's air defense system, CNN reported.

According to Politico, this means that the $48 billion aid package for Ukraine that the US Congress passed in December 2022 has only about $6 billion left and will likely run out by mid-summer. In that situation, according to Politico , some lawmakers are worried because they do not know when the White House will propose a new large aid package and whether it will be enough in the context of the approaching Ukrainian counterattack.

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Weapon transfer speed is too slow

During a May 11 hearing before the Pentagon, Senator Susan Collins said it was important for the administration to provide Ukraine with what it needed in a timely manner. She said the United States was taking too long to deliver ammunition and tanks to Ukraine.

Dòng viện trợ từ Mỹ sang Ukraine sắp cạn? - Ảnh 1. — US Abrams tanks pledged to send to Ukraine

Under pressure from Collins, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin explained that some Abrams tanks had been sent to Germany to train Ukrainian troops on how to use them. He added that Kyiv’s forces would be ready when the remaining tanks “certainly” arrive in early fall, according to Euromaidan Press.

However, Mr Austin's explanation did not satisfy some US officials, who said the funding needed to be maintained "uninterrupted", especially when Ukraine was said to be about to launch a wide-ranging counter-offensive in the east.

But frustration with the pace of aid delivery is becoming clear on the Ukrainian side. President Volodymyr Zelensky said the new armored vehicles promised by the US were only “arriving in batches.” His comments were contradicted by General Christopher Cavoli of the European Command, who said Ukraine had received “more than 98 percent” of the combat vehicles it requested.

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Efforts to maintain support flow run into difficulty

According to a report published by the Institute for the Study of War (USA) in January, the delay in the West's decisions on providing weapons to Ukraine could cost the country the failure of its spring counteroffensive.

In light of that, a senior administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the White House was working on a new package to maintain support for Ukraine. The official added that it was unclear how Ukraine’s needs might change during or after the offensive, but that the administration was “fully committed” to supporting Kyiv during and after the war “for the long term.”

Dòng viện trợ từ Mỹ sang Ukraine sắp cạn? - Ảnh 2. — Javelin anti-tank missiles were delivered to Ukraine on February 10.

Still, one member of parliament, who asked not to be named, estimated that at the current pace of disbursement to Ukraine, the aid would run out by July. That means the flow of equipment could be interrupted and Kyiv would have to wait a long time for a new round of funding.

But any proposal the White House makes this summer could be met with fierce debate, according to Politico . Congress is currently divided over the debt ceiling, with some Republicans deciding to cut spending on Ukraine and not raise the debt ceiling despite the risk of a US default being higher than ever.

Additionally, Congress must spend the next several months debating the fiscal 2024 defense budget, which would complicate funding for Ukraine, even as bipartisan lawmakers overwhelmingly support maintaining the aid.

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Will it be okay in the next few months?

Sen. Ben Cardin said he was recently told in a briefing with administration officials that they would have enough money for Ukraine in the next few months and that Congress could then spend more heavily, according to Politico .

Representative Michael McCaul, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, predicted that the "period of stability" mentioned above would probably be September. Meanwhile, Senator Lisa Murkowski said that the next funding round will be planned based on the actual situation.

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, predicts that the White House will propose some small aid packages for Ukraine for the rest of the year. However, Senator Marco Rubio, vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said it would be a “mistake” for the US government to expect additional funding for Ukraine, because “the money to support Kyiv should be part of Washington’s basic budget.”

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