The historic flood in the Central region is rare and cannot be predicted accurately.

On November 23, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting issued a summary report and assessment of the historic flood in the Central region, as well as a report on forecasting and warning work on this flood.

Military Region 7 forces support people of D'ran commune ( Lam Dong province) to overcome flood consequences.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that the flood in the South Central region from November 16 to November 22 was an extreme phenomenon, surpassing historical records. Rainfall at many stations such as Son Hoa ( Dak Lak ) 601.2mm and Quy Nhon (Gia Lai) 380.6mm both exceeded historical records, while some other stations such as Son Thanh Tay, Son Thanh Dong, Hoa My Tay, Song Hinh recorded 1,000-1,200mm of rain in just a few days.

“According to the classification of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), these are rare events that are almost impossible to accurately forecast quantitatively,” said the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.

Meteorological and hydrological experts also said that the accumulated rainfall from October to mid-November reached a very high level (120-200% higher than the average of many years), causing the land to be saturated. When entering the main rainy season, only 300-500mm of additional rain is needed to form a major flood.

According to the Meteorological and Hydrological Agency, over the past 30 years, major floods in the South Central region have often occurred before November 15. However, the major flood in 2025 will occur later than usual.

Therefore, the meteorological and hydrological agency assessed that this unusually large flood event is a clear demonstration of the changing traditional flood laws, reflecting the increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather trends due to the impact of climate change leading to changes in circulation, storms and tropical depressions.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting also informed that the special point of this flood is that many large rivers have exceeded historical floods: Ky Lo River (in Dak Lak) exceeded the 2009 record, Ba River (in Dak Lak) exceeded the 1993 record, Dinh Ninh Hoa River (in Khanh Hoa) exceeded the 1986 record.

“The phenomenon of simultaneous record-breaking floods in 3-5 basins is extremely rare, almost never seen in more than 50 years of observation and not within the normal flood calculation level,” the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting assessed, saying that this shows that more accurate forecasting alone is not enough to prevent natural disasters beyond history.

ANGEL

Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/dot-lu-lich-su-o-trung-bo-la-hiem-gap-khong-the-du-bao-chinh-xac-post825023.html