Latest Interest Rate Forecast 2025

(NLDO) – The average 12-month deposit interest rate may increase by about 0.3 percentage points in 2025, still significantly lower than before COVID-19.

According to the latest statistics of VNDIRECT Securities Company, by early December 2024, the average 12-month term deposit interest rate at commercial banks reached 4.84%/year, a slight increase compared to the end of October but still 0.09 percentage points lower than the end of 2023.

Meanwhile, data from the State Bank showed that credit growth as of December 7 reached 12.5%, up 0.6 percentage points in just one week, indicating that credit demand is accelerating strongly at the end of the year.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macro and Market Strategy Department - VNDIRECT, commented that banks will continue to increase deposit interest rates to attract new capital sources. It is forecasted that 12-month deposit interest rates may reach 4.9-5% by the end of this year.

Interest rates are forecast to increase slightly in 2025

Entering 2025, pressure from high credit demand and exchange rate fluctuations is expected to cause deposit interest rates to continue to increase. However, VNDIRECT predicts that the average 12-month deposit interest rate will only increase by about 0.3 percentage points, to 5.2-5.3%/year by the end of 2025. This is still significantly lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic, when the average deposit interest rate was about 6.8-7%/year. This interest rate is expected to create a favorable environment for maintaining low lending interest rates, supporting businesses to expand production and business and stimulating consumption.

However, major challenges remain as pressure from rising exchange rates and global monetary policy has yet to shift clearly. Interest rates on the interbank market have continuously faced upward pressure, with overnight interest rates reaching 6.2% per year at one point, the highest since early 2024.

Mr. Ngo Dang Khoa, Director of Foreign Exchange and Capital Markets - HSBC Vietnam, said that in the context of the Government's determination to achieve high growth targets, the State Bank will have to flexibly manage monetary policy to support growth by striving to reduce lending interest rates and promote credit. However, the State Bank also needs to maintain stability in the system's liquidity through tools such as issuing treasury bills and intervening in the open market to control exchange rates.

In general, experts believe that monetary policy in 2025 will be flexibly managed, with the State Bank forecast to maintain the operating interest rate at 4.5% until the end of the year.

However, deposit interest rates are still greatly affected by domestic credit demand and exchange rate pressure, with a slight upward trend compared to 2024.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/lai-suat-hom-nay-24-12-du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-lai-suat-nam-2025-196241224094057752.htm