Stock market perspective week 9/29-10/3: Looking for prospects in public investment group

Investors are waiting for new momentum to help the market continue to rise, which could come from the upcoming third quarter 2025 financial report announcement season and official information on market upgrade in October.

After enduring selling pressure at the peak of 1,700 points and adjusting to the 1,620 point area, VN-Index had a fairly positive trading week when it recovered with a high level of differentiation and low liquidity. Closing the trading week, VN-Index increased slightly by 0.37% to 1,660 points, continuing the sideways trend within a wide range of 1,600 - 1,700 points.

According to MBS experts, the VN-Index successfully tested the 1,600-point support zone for the third time in the past month, closing the week at 1,660.7 points, equivalent to an increase of +2.08 points (or +0.13%) compared to the previous week. The Vn30 group of stocks decreased by -0.37%, the second consecutive week of decrease in the recent 3/4 week decrease series. The downward pressure from the bluechip group, notably the banking group, caused the cash flow to shift to the small-cap group. The Midcap group also decreased for 4 consecutive weeks while the Smallcap group maintained an upward trend for 2 consecutive weeks and increased 4/5 recent weeks.

Some stock groups had strong increases in the market last week such as: Public investment (+4.8%), Real estate (+2.5%), Insurance (+1.5%)... On the contrary, the stock groups that put pressure on the market: Technology (-4.8%), Seafood (-2.2%), Viettel (-1.6%).

Foreign investors net sold -7,700 billion VND, marking the 10th consecutive week of net selling. Since the beginning of the year, foreign investors have net sold -102,559 billion VND, surpassing last year's net selling record (-92,600 billion VND).

Last week, foreign investors net bought CII (+22 billion VND), BID (+201 billion VND), BSR (+129 billion VND), while net sellingFPT (-1,039 billion VND), VHM (-959 billion VND), SSI (-782 billion VND)...

Last week, securities companies' self-trading net bought stocks such as: GEE (+593 billion VND), TCB (+58 billion VND),ACB (+41 billion VND)... while net selling other stocks such as: VPB (-332 billion VND), FPT (-156 billion VND), HPG (-95 billion VND).

MBS experts believe that, technically, due to seasonal factors, the market in September often has low performance and currently the VN-Index is also affected by this factor. In the context of narrowing cash flow, some groups of stocks will be rotated as leading flows but not more than 1 T+ round, investors should take advantage of taking profits when stocks approach or exceed resistance (upper limit), not chasing buy in strong increasing sessions.

“We believe that, in the base scenario, the market will continue to maintain a Sideway state, the support zone for the market is in the 1,600 - 1,610 point area, while the resistance zone is in the 1,694 - 1,700 point area. With the possibility of liquidity continuing to decline, the third bounce of the VN-Index will only be around the 1,680 point area. In the cautious scenario, the VN-Index is still likely to retest the 1,600 point area or break through when the banking and securities stocks are still in the correction phase,” according to MBS.

Mr. Le Duc Huy, Head of Market Strategy Department, Agribank Securities Joint Stock Company, acknowledged that the market is in a tug-of-war phase, liquidity is declining and cash flow has not yet spread clearly. This is not a very "comfortable" state for investors. The market may continue to move sideways within a wide range with low liquidity and differentiated cash flow. Investors should be cautious in the current period and limit the use of financial leverage.

In September, the average trading value on the HoSE floor recorded about 34,500 billion VND/session, down about 30% compared to August. The decline in liquidity in September showed investors' caution when the market established a new peak at 1,700 points and is tending to accumulate again in the price channel of 1,600 - 1,700 points.

Domestic institutions have played an important role in improving the liquidity of the entire market from April to the present. The cash flow comes from the self-trading of securities companies, investment funds and domestic enterprises.

After the boom period, liquidity is gradually decreasing in September, this cash flow may be slowing down along with the development of the score and temporarily withdrawing from the market but still waiting for the opportunity to return. According to Mr. Huy, investors are waiting for new motivations to help the market continue to go up, that motivation may come from the financial report announcement season of the third quarter of 2025 and official information about market upgrade in October.

The October market will have 4 main events that impact the market that investors need to pay attention to. In order from the beginning of the month, they will include: The socio-economic report of the General Statistics Office (GSO) on October 6; The FTSE stock market review report, which investors expect to upgrade on October 8; The announcement of Q3/2025 business results in the second half of October; and the FED FOMC meeting taking place on the last day of the month.

Over the past week, public investment stocks have been performing positively and attracting cash flow in the context of a rather quiet general market with many industry groups adjusting. Mr. Huy believes that public investment stocks including construction materials (steel, construction stone, asphalt), construction groups will have positive prospects in the near future when the Government continues to promote public investment disbursement.

According to the Ministry of Finance's report, by the end of August 2025, the disbursement of public investment capital nationwide reached 46.3% of the assigned plan. With the above results, the last months of the year will be the peak of public investment disbursement to achieve the disbursement plan in 2025. For public investment stocks, investors should prioritize leading stocks with solid fundamentals and positive business results prospects to choose in the coming period.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-299-310-tim-trien-vong-o-nhom-dau-tu-cong-d396526.html