Israel faces riskiest campaign if it unleashes 'iron fist' on Hamas

Israel đối mặt chiến dịch rủi ro nhất nếu tung nắm đấm thép với Hamas - 1 — Israeli military vehicles in the area bordering the Gaza Strip (Photo: Getty).

Israel announced on October 28 that it had opened a new phase in its war with Hamas by expanding its ground operations inside the Gaza Strip. However, analysts warned that this could be the riskiest operation in half a century with consequences that threaten the entire Middle East.

Thousands of civilians have been killed in Gaza and Israel since Hamas launched surprise attacks on 7 October. The UN has warned that thousands more will die as Israel pushes troops and tanks deeper into Gaza.

This adds to Western fears that Iran-backed Hezbollah could open a new front on the Israel-Lebanon border. Officials say Israel does not want to stay in Gaza, and there are also concerns about who will control the territory and pay for reconstruction after Gaza is quiet.

With hospitals devastated and food supplies running low in Gaza, Israel's Arab neighbors fear images of Palestinian suffering could stoke a wave of support for Hamas in those countries.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to unleash an “iron fist” on Hamas after its militants attacked communities across southern Israel. According to Israeli statistics, the attacks have left 1,400 men, women and children dead and at least 230 hostages taken.

Meanwhile, Hamas says more than 8,000 people, half of them children, have been killed in thousands of Israeli air strikes on Gaza since the conflict began escalating.

Tens of thousands of Israeli soldiers are currently awaiting orders in the area bordering the Gaza Strip in preparation for a war that Prime Minister Netanyahu warned would be long and difficult.

“We’re going to see a lot of carnage, we’re going to see a lot of horror,” said Edward Djerejian, a former US assistant secretary of state and ambassador to Israel.

According to Professor Jonathan Rynhold, an expert on the Israel-Palestine conflict at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, this is Israel's most dangerous confrontation since the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

Mr. Rynhold said Israel would have to prepare for a high-casualty scenario, and this would be even worse if Hezbollah forces in Lebanon turned their near-daily shelling of Israel into a full-blown conflict.

Israel đối mặt chiến dịch rủi ro nhất nếu tung nắm đấm thép với Hamas - 2 — Scenes of devastation in Gaza after Israeli raids (Photo: Getty).

The Israeli military has been specially trained to operate in urban environments in Gaza's narrow streets and Hamas's vast network of underground tunnels, which they call the "Gaza subway."

"If Israel achieves its stated goal of destroying Hamas' military capabilities in the Gaza Strip and eliminating its leadership, the scale and duration of this war will be much larger and longer than the four previous Gaza wars since 2005, the longest of which lasted seven weeks," Professor Rynhold said.

The expansion of the battle area “will be a crucial moment in determining whether a second front opens up with Hezbollah and that is a higher risk” than in previous wars, he added.

According to Professor Rynhold, open conflict with Hezbollah could drag in the US and mean Israel would have to accept "a scale of devastation it has never experienced before".

US President Joe Biden has sent two aircraft carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean and warned Hezbollah and others to avoid action in the region, but he also urged Israel to restrain its “rage”.

Dr HA Hellyer, a UK-based security expert, said Israel was not doing enough to prevent new war fronts.

"There is a risk of a prolonged conflict. Israel is prioritizing retaliation above all else, as we can see from statements by senior Israeli officials," said Mr. Hellyer.

Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas, but even if it can eliminate Hamas' leadership, analysts warn it is unlikely to take away the group's support base.

Professor Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Center for Policy Research and Surveys in Ramallah, said Hamas is "probably significantly better known" in the Arab region today than it was before the conflict. He predicted that Hamas would retain significant influence in Gaza after the conflict.

Meanwhile, Israel has not enjoyed the public support it expected in the West. With Iran and other rivals watching closely, Israel now has to demonstrate that it remains a military power in the Middle East.

Laura Blumenfeld, a former US State Department adviser on Israel-Palestine negotiations and now a security expert at Johns Hopkins University, said Israel's reputation "depends on its strength".

She added that if the war undermined “deterrence,” Israel would look “weak” to its adversaries as well as countries that might be considering normalizing relations.

"It's not that Israel will lose, but the price of victory will be very high," Professor Rynhold warned.

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