Clarifying the causes of slow disbursement of public investment capital

Overcoming shortcomings in budget revenue estimation

Delegate Tran Van Tien highly appreciated the efforts and determination of the entire political system, the drastic participation of the Government, the Prime Minister, ministries, branches, localities, and the support of the people and the business community in implementing the socio-economic development plan for 2025, which has helped the socio-economic picture to improve. It is expected that 15/15 main targets will be achieved and exceeded; the macro-economy will continue to be stable; inflation will be controlled, and major balances of the economy will be ensured.

*National Assembly Delegate Tran Van Tien ( Phu Tho ) speaks during the discussion. Photo: Lam Hien*

Of which, the GDP growth rate is estimated to reach over 8% for the whole year. In particular, the growth rate of the agriculture - forestry - fishery sector is estimated to increase sharply, about 4%; Delegates said that this is the highest growth rate in many years. The scale of the economy is estimated to reach 510 billion USD; GDP per capita is over 5,000 USD. Inflation is estimated for the whole year to reach about 4%. In addition, the trade balance is maintained, the trade surplus is estimated to reach 28 billion USD; the budget revenue is estimated to increase by about 21.5% for the whole year compared to the estimate. Debts and budget deficits are controlled and lower than the allowable limit. Along with that, culture - society has many clear advances, social security is guaranteed, people's lives continue to improve...

In addition to the achieved results, there are still some contents that need to be clarified, according to the delegates, such as the state budget revenue is much higher than the estimate, estimated to increase by about 21.5% for the whole year compared to 2024 and many previous years. However, the question is why the state budget revenue increases every year compared to the estimate, is it due to strong production and business development or is it due to inaccurate and unscientific budget revenue estimates?

Delegate Tran Van Tien said that the budget revenue estimates that are not close to the actual budget revenue have greatly affected the balance of state budget revenue and expenditure, the budget expenditure plan in the planning year, and the regulation and allocation of increased resources due to excess revenue. Therefore, he suggested that the Government and the Ministry of Finance clarify the reasons why state budget revenue has increased higher than the estimate every year and have solutions to prevent the above situation from recurring.

Slow disbursement affects economic growth

Emphasizing that the disbursement of public investment capital is delayed every year, with disbursement reaching 45.3% of the plan in the first 9 months of 2024 and about 50% in the first 9 months of 2025, the delegate said that this has caused many consequences; affecting economic growth, as well as the efficiency of using investment capital. According to the Government's report, Vietnam's investment efficiency (ICOR index) is about 6.4, which is not effective. When investing with foreign loans, slow disbursement also increases the cost of borrowing and debt repayment...

This issue has been frequently mentioned in meetings but so far there has been no solution. Therefore, the Government and the Ministry of Finance need to clarify the causes of slow disbursement; at the same time, propose effective solutions to avoid this situation from recurring in the following years.

Review some indicators that directly affect growth

Basically agreeing with the 2026 socio-economic development plan, delegates emphasized that the expected state budget revenue increase of 5.88% compared to 2025, while GDP growth increased by 10% or more, is unreasonable.

Therefore, the delegates proposed to raise the budget revenue surplus rate to match the GDP growth rate; at the same time, review a number of indicators that directly affect GDP growth to adjust the growth rate to match the GDP growth rate, ensuring that GDP growth in 2026 is highly feasible.

In addition, delegate Tran Van Tien also suggested that the Government review the urbanization rate index; because urban areas currently only include centrally-run cities, no longer include provincial cities, towns, and cities, so the urban population fluctuates greatly.

Source: https://daibieunhandan.vn/lam-ro-nguyen-nhan-dan-den-cham-giai-ngan-von-dau-tu-cong-10393517.html