The US is falling behind Russia in Libya.

The US is making efforts to gain access to the oil-rich North African nation of Libya, while Russia has expanded its influence there with the presence of the Wagner Group security conglomerate.

While the US was still considering reopening its embassy in Libya, the Russian ambassador was preparing to take up his post in the capital, Tripoli. In recent years, two parallel governments have existed in Libya. One is the interim government headed by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah in Tripoli. The other is the government based in the Tobruk region in the east, appointed by the Libyan parliament , with security forces led by General Khalifa Haftar.

Russia has traditionally maintained influence in the eastern part of the country. The decision to re-establish a diplomatic presence in Tripoli, home to the UN-backed government, is the clearest indication yet that President Putin is seeking to expand his influence beyond its traditional region .

Libya is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). European countries are looking to the North African nation as a potential alternative to Moscow's energy. Washington recently sent a series of high-ranking officials to Libya to counter Russian influence. One of them was CIA Director William Burns, who visited in January to hold talks with both eastern and western governments , before meeting with officials from Egypt, a neighboring country that supports Haftar.

Security forces stand guard outside the parliament building in Tobruk, Libya, in February 2022. Photo: Reuters

Experts believe one of the biggest concerns for the U.S. in Libya is the presence of the Russian security group Wagner, which has around 2,000 members. This group supported General Haftar's unsuccessful campaign to seize Tripoli in 2019-2020. Since then, Wagner has helped him consolidate control over the country's oil supply, which accounts for 40% of Africa's reserves.

"The status quo in the country is unstable. Our message is that you will only be recognized through elections," said U.S. envoy to Libya Richard Norland. He warned against activities that "exploit internal divisions and hinder the UN's efforts to promote elections."

The U.S. is at a disadvantage in Libya, where it has no military or diplomatic presence. While U.S. officials say they are working to re-establish an embassy in Libya, this decision carries significant political risks for President Joe Biden. Biden served as U.S. vice president during the NATO-backed uprising that overthrew longtime leader Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, plunging Libya into chaos.

The U.S. embassy in Libya closed in 2014 as the country was engulfed in civil war. An attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi in 2012 killed Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans, sending shockwaves through domestic politics and making any decision to return to Libya risky.

Khalifa Haftar in Bengazhi, Libya, in December 2020. Photo: Reuters

Although the number of Wagner Group members in Libya has decreased from over 4,000 to around 2,000 since the Ukraine conflict broke out, the Wagner Group is currently present at four military bases in Libya, according to the Sadeq Institute in Libya and the Navanti Group, a consulting firm for the US government. Wagner has access to some of Libya's most important energy facilities, including the largest oil field, Sharara, and the Es Sider crude oil export port.

In 2020, supporters of Khalifa Haftar blockaded the country's oil fields and ports to pressure the government in Tripoli. Western officials believe Haftar was effectively behind this.

Mustafa Sanalla, the former head of Libya's National Oil Company (NOC), accused Wagner and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of involvement in the blockade. In 2022, another blockade took place and ended with Sanalla having to relinquish his position to someone more friendly to the eastern government.

"The shutdown was largely due to domestic political disputes over the distribution of oil revenue. But I don't believe it could have happened without Wagner's support for Haftar's forces, who have deployed military power around the oil facilities," said Robert Uniacke, senior Libya analyst at Navanti Group.

Efforts to restore Russia's influence, lost after Qaddafi's death in 2011, have not always gone smoothly. Both General Haftar's offensive for Tripoli and his attempts to elevate the late leader's son, Saif al-Islam, to the presidency have failed.

President Putin appears to have decided to pursue a policy of maintaining the status quo in Libya. With this approach, Russia can still control Libya's oil exports, according to observers.

Farhat Bengdara, the new head of the National Oil Corporation (NOC), praised Haftar's forces for their "great efforts" to protect the oil fields. He said Libya has plans to open more blocks to international companies by 2024 and increase production from 1.2 million to 2 million barrels per day over the next five years. However, most analysts do not believe the NOC can achieve that goal given the lack of political stability.

Location of Libya. Graphic: Britannica

Wagner possesses fighter jets and missile defense systems, making any attempts to curb the group's influence in Libya difficult. General Haftar relies on Wagner for security and to counter Libyan militia forces.

Gleb Irisov, a former Russian air force officer who worked at the Khmeimim base in Syria from 2019-2020, said he saw 20 Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter jets and helicopters being delivered to Libya.

"The number one goal for the US was to get Wagner out of the country and ensure elections were held in Libya. But neither of those goals materialized," said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in the UK.

Thanh Tam (According to Bloomberg )

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