Will the US election wave reach Northeast Asia?

Whoever becomes the next US president will have a significant impact on Washington's policy toward North Korea, while the US-Japan-South Korea alliance will continue to grow.

Whoever becomes the next president of the United States will also have a certain impact on Washington's policy towards the Northeast Asia region. (Source: Reuters).

In just over two months, America will elect a new leader – current Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump. Analysts from Tokyo to Seoul to Pyongyang are closely watching this unpredictable race to predict its regional impact.

Different personality

A hotly anticipated question is who will be chosen to fill Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris’s cabinet when they become president. For Mr. Trump, the people he could appoint will have a major impact on Washington’s foreign policy, especially positions like National Security Advisor, Secretary of State, or U.S. Trade Representative.

Some of the leading candidates who have a strong “America First” conservative bent may be considered by Trump. For example, former Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (the nominee for Treasury Secretary) has advocated “balanced trade” with the United States’ trading partners (renegotiating NAFTA, imposing tariffs on China, and freezing the WTO’s Appellate Body by blocking the appointment of new judges). Another candidate who has a strong preference for competition with China could also be considered for the National Security Advisor position, such as Elbridge Colby, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense under Trump.

If elected, Mr. Trump’s unconventional, unpredictable leadership style could influence the U.S. approach to allies and the North Korea issue. Moreover, the former president’s desire to leave a “legacy” or diplomatic mark during his final term as president could create greater momentum for peace programs or significant bilateral agreements.

On the contrary, if Ms. Harris becomes the female owner of the White House, with her cautious "collective leadership" style, she will tend to stick to the Democratic Party's foreign policy, including maintaining international alliances, protecting global norms and rules, and prioritizing promoting multilateral cooperation.

With much of her career spent in the judiciary, Ms. Harris may have limited foreign policy experience. As Vice President Joe Biden’s deputy, Ms. Harris’s foreign policy footprint is small, which may leave Ms. Kamala relying on advisers, many of whom have a more traditional approach.

Ms. Harris is expected to retain most of the officials under Biden and appoint her own current advisers. Ms. Harris's current national security advisers, Philip Gordon and Rebecca Lissner, are considered "traditionalists" and "internationalists," so their approach to foreign affairs will likely follow that of previous Democratic presidents.

From the outside, China’s role will certainly continue to factor into the White House’s calculations. As the US and its allies seek to counter China’s growing influence, this will be one of the factors that binds the US-Japan-South Korea alliance. In addition, North Korea’s nuclear program and military activities are also factors that cannot be ignored in any US president’s policymaking toward the Northeast Asia region. Especially in the context of improved Japan-South Korea relations under Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and President Yoon Suk Yeol, especially with the goal of addressing the common security concern of North Korea, it can also help promote a closer US-Japan-South Korea trio.

The North Korean problem

If elected, Mr. Trump will likely promote personal relations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with the desire to become the first US president to definitively resolve the issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. However, this ambition of Mr. Donald Trump is unlikely to become a reality. Mr. Trump may reach some symbolic agreements such as declaring towards denuclearization, North Korea suspending nuclear warhead testing and missile launches..., but it is unlikely to force North Korea to give up nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, Ms. Harris is expected to maintain the Biden administration's tough stance on North Korea's nuclear ambitions and will prioritize cooperation with allies South Korea, Japan and regional and international forums to address this issue. Ms. Harris may also resume US-North Korea negotiations, but it will not be a direct summit with leader Kim Jong Un if Pyongyang does not make specific commitments.

To overcome the lack of experience in the Korean Peninsula issue, Ms. Harris may authorize US diplomats to work with North Korea to achieve concrete results on the issue of denuclearization. In addition, Ms. Harris may also consider easing economic sanctions on Pyongyang to support improving the lives of the North Korean people and in return, North Korea must take "verifiable" actions in the denuclearization process. This is based on what Ms. Harris has said before, including in an interview with the US Council on Foreign Relations. in 2019.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio at Camp David, Washington, August 18, 2023. (Source: Reuters)

US-Japan-Korea relations

With his “America First” policy, Mr. Trump can pressure South Korea and Japan to increase their security burden sharing and improve their defense capabilities, playing a more proactive role in the regional security structure. This will invisibly give Japan and South Korea more motivation to promote bilateral cooperation, helping the relationship between the two countries continue to warm up.

In addition, since both Japan and South Korea have one of the largest trade surpluses with the US, the two countries could be in Trump’s crosshairs. Trump could seek to renegotiate the FTA with South Korea to change the trade balance in the US’s favor.

During her tenure as Vice President, according to ABC News, four of Harris' 17 overseas trips were to East Asia. She visited seven countries in the region, including Japan, South Korea, and the Korean Demilitarized Zone. During these trips, Washington reaffirmed its commitment to its allies to ensure regional security and stability, while mending relations between Seoul and Tokyo.

The US-Japan-South Korea tripod, if elected, is likely to continue the trend of further strengthening the US-Japan and US-South Korea bilateral alliances and promoting trilateral cooperation to address concerns in the Northeast Asia region. Unlike Mr. Trump, Ms. Harris is likely to avoid a “transactional” approach in bilateral relations with Tokyo and Seoul, instead working to strengthen military cooperation to address regional security issues and maintain a “free and open” Indo-Pacific region.

So far, Washington has not intended to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), but if elected, Ms. Harris may still tighten trade relations with Japan and South Korea to increase US influence in the economic field in the region.

Regardless of whether Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris is elected, the United States will continue to maintain and promote the group-sub-multilateral cooperation mechanisms from the Biden era. According to Reuters, during the election campaigns, Mr. Trump's advisors sent messages to Seoul and Tokyo that the former President would support efforts to strengthen US-Japan-Korea relations. Meanwhile, Ms. Harris's campaign team also sent signals that it would take advantage of cooperation with allies to curb China's influence in the region.

Another common point between the Trump administration and the future Harris administration is said to be strict export controls with China in the technology sector, while calling on allies to implement similar restrictive policies. From there, the Chip 4 “alliance” can be breathed new life in both cases. However, the possibility of Mr. Trump’s protectionist policies will be a counter-factor to this cooperation mechanism.

In short, this year’s US presidential election will not only affect the US but also have a strong impact on the security structure and international relations in Northeast Asia. Regardless of which candidate becomes the owner of the White House, it will create new challenges and opportunities for the region in the context of an increasingly complex and volatile geopolitical situation.