Investment analysis
East Asian Securities : Market liquidity remains high, with foreign investors continuing their net selling streak over the past two weeks, which is also affecting investor sentiment. The market is trading at an 18-month high, with frequent reversals and has yet to surpass the psychological 1,280-point mark.
Investors should shift to a cautious approach, as short-term buying positions carry risks, and current price levels are not attractive to medium- or long-term investors. A strategy of holding portfolios and waiting for a clearer market trend is recommended, potentially focusing on real estate, construction, industrial park, and public investment stocks.
Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) : The VN-Index experienced a volatile correction at the beginning of the week, retesting the peak area around 1,270 points. On the daily chart, the RSI and MACD indicators continue to form downward peaks; however, there is no consensus forming a negative divergence on either the daily or hourly charts, so a sharp decline is unlikely.
The market performed well last week, and with the VN-Index currently at its previous peak, the correction and volatility on March 25th is understandable. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, suggesting the VN-Index will need to consolidate before continuing its upward trend. On the hourly chart, the MA20 moving average is still trending upwards, and the VN-Index remains above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the VN-Index is maintaining a strong short-term trend.
VCBS recommends that investors remain calm and take advantage of intraday fluctuations to restructure their portfolios, by partially taking profits on stocks that have seen good gains in previous sessions but have not yet broken through the nearest resistance level, or on stocks showing signs of weakening upward trends, and shifting to holding stocks that show signs of building a solid accumulation base and attracting stable capital flows.
Asean Securities (Aseanc) : Aseansc maintains the view that the short-term trend is threatened as the risk of divergence remains despite the general index surpassing its peak.
Therefore, Aseanc maintains its recommendation that investors should focus only on short-term speculative trading and proactively reduce their positions during market rallies for the stocks they currently hold in the coming sessions.
Stock market news brief
- Wall Street remains cautious about gold prices this week. Last week, following the two-day policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the gold market saw strong buying pressure, pushing the precious metal to $2,204 an ounce on March 21st – an all-time high. Kitco News' forecast for this week shows that Wall Street experts are divided and cautious about the direction of gold, while retail traders favor an upward trend.
- The burden of interest payments on the Japanese government after the BOJ raised interest rates. The Japanese government is facing increasing pressure to cut spending after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to end negative interest rates last week. A higher interest rate environment could triple the amount Tokyo pays in interest to bondholders within the next decade, according to Nikkei Asia.
Citing an estimate from the Japanese Cabinet Office, Nikkei reported that the country's nominal long-term interest rate would rise to 1.5% in fiscal year 2028, up from 0.6% in fiscal year 2023, if the economy achieves high growth. Such a rise in interest rates would increase the amount of interest payments the Japanese government has to make annually by approximately 50% to 11.5 trillion yen, or $76.2 billion, from 7.6 trillion yen in 2023 .
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