Stock market this morning October 24: Comments on market developments

After an important technical recovery session on October 23, strongly led by Vingroup stocks, the stock market in the trading session on October 24 is forecast to enter a cautious state. With liquidity continuing to weaken, cash flow shows signs of exploration, pushing the VN-Index into a tug-of-war around the 1,687-point threshold, while short-term profit-taking pressure and net selling from foreign investors remain significant barriers.

Analyze previous session performance and market sentiment

The trading session on October 23 saw the VN-Index increase by nearly 9 points, closing at 1,687 points. However, this increase was not accompanied by an improvement in trading quality as the total market liquidity only reached over VND22,760 billion, down more than 24% compared to the previous session.

The recovery was mainly driven by the strong pull of the Vin group, including VIC (up 5.91%), VHM (up 1.77%) and VRE (up 1.03%), contributing more than 12 points to the index. This weakening liquidity clearly reflects that cash flow is still in the exploration phase. Although investor sentiment has stabilized after the sharp decline last week, the lack of active buying momentum shows that the sustainability of the recovery still needs to be tested.

Preferred neutral scenario: Tug-of-war around 1,685 points

This is considered the scenario with the highest probability of occurring in the morning session of October 24. After the Vingroup group completes its leading role, demand is expected to slow down. The market may fluctuate within a narrow range of 1,680-1,690 points.

Profit-taking and net selling pressure: Short-term profit-taking pressure is expected to appear. In particular, foreign investors continued to maintain a net selling position with a value of more than VND 1,257 billion in the previous session, which is a negative psychological factor.

Differentiation of pillar stocks: Other pillar stocks such as banks and securities are expected to trade differently. Some small bank stocks still maintain a slight increase (PGB, ABB, LPB), but many larger stocks such as CTG, TCB, VPB are facing correction pressure.SHB , with the highest liquidity in the previous session (more than 80 million units), may continue to attract attention.

Liquidity forecast: Liquidity is expected to be at a low average level, around VND11,000-12,000 billion in the morning session, reinforcing the market's cautiousness. If the VN-Index maintains around 1,685 points without selling pressure, the market may establish a temporary price base for the next technical recovery.

Positive scenario: Recovery momentum spreads

In case the cash flow suddenly returns and spreads to groups of stocks that benefit from third-quarter business results, the VN-Index could surpass the 1,690-point mark, heading towards the 1,695-1,700-point range.

Driving force from the seaport - Real estate group: The seaport - transportation group is attracting strong cash flow with high liquidity (VSC increased by 6.9%, HAH increased by 6.7%), creating the main driving force. At the same time, some real estate codes such as KDH, CTD can extend the growth if speculative cash flow returns.

Support from the banking group: The banking group plays a supporting role if MBB, HDB, LPB maintain the growth rate. Foreign investors' net purchase of HDB with 187.3 billion VND is a positive signal for this code.

Liquidity signal: If liquidity improves significantly to over VND14,000 billion, it will confirm the short-term recovery trend and help VN-Index approach the resistance zone of 1,700 points in the weekend sessions.

Negative scenario: Selling pressure spreads

The risk of a correction will be present if cash flow weakens more than expected and leading groups lose momentum.

Impact from foreign investors: The fact that foreign investors continue to sell strongly in pillar stocks (CTG, VHM, MSN, SSI, TCB) could have a negative impact on the general sentiment. In the context of low liquidity, the reversal of Vingroup or the banking group could cause the VN-Index to quickly fall back to the support zone of 1,670-1,675 points.

Risk from the stock group: The stock group may be the point of increased profit-taking pressure. SSI decreased by 2.5% to 37,500 VND/share and VIX decreased by nearly 5%, showing that speculative cash flow is not yet ready to enter strongly. Selling pressure spreading to high-liquidity stocks will interrupt the technical recovery.