Stock market new week: Opportunity to increase still exists, but the 1,300 point mark of VN-Index will be challenged

Scores and liquidity skyrocket

Global stock markets rose across the board last week, extending the upward trend from last week. The news of a softening of tariffs between the US and China was the main reason supporting many markets to rise. Despite gloomy data on consumer confidence and inflation expectations, the US stock market still had a strong week of gains as the S&P 500 rose +5.3%, the Dow Jones rose +3.4% and the Nasdaq rose +7.2%...

In Asia, many stock markets also had positive developments, although there was a divergence between markets. While the Chinese market decreased slightly when Hang Seng decreased -0.87%, Shanghai Composite decreased -0.05%, many other markets increased: Nikkei 225 increased +1.24%; KOSPI increased +0.75%...

The Vietnamese stock market also had a strong and relatively comprehensive week. The increase in the VN-Index during the week helped the market regain almost all the points lost in early April.

Accordingly, the VN-Index closed the week at 1,301.39 points, up +34.09 points, equivalent to an increase of +2.69% compared to the previous week. If calculated at the peak of the week at 1,316.53 points, the VN-Index has recovered nearly 90 points from the lowest level in 2 weeks.

The market's recovery was quite even last week, with bluechips making the first contribution. Specifically, the VN30 group of stocks had the best recovery, up +2.38%, while the smallcap and midcap groups also increased by +1.24% and +2.16%, respectively.

Stocks also recovered across the board, typically: Retail (+4.71%), industrial real estate (+4.71%), banking (+4.18%), technology (+4.16%)... Meanwhile, the Vingroup group decreased in points last week, such as: VHM decreased -6.75%, VRE decreased -2%...

On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the two main indices also had a positive week of increase. Of which, the HNX-Index had a week of increase of +4.56 points, closing the week at 218.69 points, equivalent to an increase of +2.13% compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the UPCoM-Index increased by +2.04 points, closing at 95.62 points.

Liquidity of the entire stock market is also a positive highlight. Accordingly, the average trading value of the entire market increased to VND26,412 billion, up +36.6% compared to the previous week, in which the matched liquidity also skyrocketed +36.5% to VND23,430 billion.

On each floor, although there was a slight decrease on UPCoM, there was a strong increase on HOSE and HNX floors, reaching VND 23,934 billion/session, up 39.1% and VND 1,320 billion/session, up 38.4% compared to the previous week.

Foreign investors also maintained positive developments and contributed to the market's growth last week. Accordingly, foreign investors net bought +2,881 billion VND and this was the second consecutive week of net buying by this group. During the week, foreign investors focused on buying some codes such as: MBB (+1,087 billion VND), MWG (+893 billion VND), FPT (+222 billion VND)... However, since the beginning of the year, foreign investors still net sold quite a large amount of about -37,995 billion VND.

The market valuation is still quite attractive. The current market P/E (ttm) is at 13.09x, 1 standard deviation lower (13.45) and lower than the early April period (14.62) when it was in the price range, besides the market is at a valuation lower than the historical average (16.82), which is a potential opportunity for long-term investors.

Will the 1,300-point mark of VN-Index face challenges?

The domestic stock market has had a spectacular recovery last week. In fact, it was quite surprising when the VN-Index conquered the important psychological threshold of 1,300 points quite easily. Selling pressure was almost absent even though the market had a good week of growth after a long holiday. The impressive increase in liquidity also showed that investor sentiment was quite stable.

The market in the new week will theoretically be under stronger correction pressure. The VN-Index mark of 1,300 points will be challenged when the profit-taking trend increases. However, that is in theory, in reality, the increase may still be possible when the psychology is stable and liquidity has increased well in the past week.

According to statistics, liquidity in April reached VND 25,571 billion, up +12.4% compared to March and up +4.8% compared to the same period, liquidity in the first half of May was VND 22,876 billion, down -10.5% compared to April and down -8.7% compared to the same period. Accumulated from the beginning of the year, liquidity of the whole market reached VND 20,375 billion, down -16% compared to the same period and down -3.35% compared to the average level in 2024.

Along with that, the momentum from the determination of the Party, State, National Assembly, and Government to develop the economy may create more motivation for businesses and investors in the market, at least in terms of psychological excitement. Along with that, many investors are also looking forward to good results from the tariff negotiations between the United States and Vietnam. In fact, from the European and Chinese markets, there have been positive reactions when the tariff tensions have eased.

Apart from concerns that Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating will affect the US stock market, investors are also hoping that the trade situation will become clearer in the coming weeks. Last weekend, President Donald Trump said that the US may send letters to many countries to announce the details of new tariffs in the next 2-3 weeks. This is no exception for the Vietnamese market.

Technically, the VN-Index has had 2 weeks of strong growth, recovering more than 22% since the bottom, surpassing important average levels such as MA200, MA100, MA50 ... The resistance of the VN-Index is in the 1,320-1,340 point range. The pressure to realize profits may be stronger, challenging the 1,300 point mark. The most important thing is how the cash flow will be. Liquidity increased last week and if this mark is maintained and rotated between large industry groups, the opportunity to overcome resistance is still there. If the pressure completely prevails, the 1,260-1,270 point mark also needs to be considered, but it must be affirmed that this development is completely normal after seeing the recent increase of about 75 points.

Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-co-hoi-tang-van-con-nhung-moc-1300-diem-cua-vn-index-se-chiu-thu-thach-post880787.html