How does the US reciprocal tax affect the stock market?

Director of Research and Analysis, Yuanta Securities Vietnam Co., Ltd. Nguyen The Minh spoke with reporters of Hanoi Moi Newspaper after the United States announced reciprocal tax rates with many countries, including Vietnam.

- The United States has announced a 20% tax rate on Vietnamese goods. What is your assessment of this tax rate?

- The White House has published President Donald Trump's Executive Order on adjusting reciprocal tax rates, according to which the United States decided to adjust reciprocal tax rates for 69 countries and territories. According to Appendix I, the reciprocal tax rate for Vietnam is 20%.

Since late April 2025, Vietnam and the United States have held many trade negotiation sessions. The 20% tax rate has been reduced by more than half compared to the 46% figure given in April. This is a positive signal.

Nguyen The Minh, Director of Research and Analysis of Yuanta Securities. Photo: NVCC

Comparing the tariff rates of countries in the Southeast Asian region, except for Laos and Myanmar at a very high rate of 40%, the US tax rate on Vietnamese goods compared to the remaining countries is neutral, not completely advantageous or disadvantageous.

For example, compared to Thailand, the above tax rate is only slightly higher by 1% while comparing Vietnam's trade deficit with the United States, Vietnam's 20% rate is still much more advantageous than Thailand's.

In short, the 20% tariff rate for Vietnam is neutral and still has room to create competition to attract investment capital, not too negative or too positive.

This tariff level may not have a big impact on the shift in investment demand and supply chains. Moreover, Vietnam has many other advantages to "retain" FDI capital flows such as infrastructure, taxes, fees, and human resources. Not to mention, Vietnam is located in the largest goods transit area today.

Before and after the tariffs, the impact of the tariffs has not affected the trade imbalance between countries. We are also being treated fairly, the United States is not favoring any country.

It is worth mentioning that the US announced a 40% tax on transit goods. This tax rate is applied to countries, whether they are allies or not of the US.

Previously, when US President Donald Trump mentioned a 20% reciprocal tax rate for Vietnam and 40% for transit goods, we were worried that if this 40% rate was not applied to other countries, we might lose our competitive advantage. However, now we don't need to worry about that.

With a 20% tax rate, businesses will likely have to accept sacrificing some profits to gain a competitive advantage over other countries.

- How will this tax policy affect the stock market, sir?

- I think the impact of tariffs on the stock market will take place in two stages.

First of all, in the short term, this tariff policy does not affect any individual country but affects the entire global stock market.

If applied from August 2025, the first pressure to be concerned about is the possible inflationary pressure and impact on the US economy . This may make it difficult for the US Federal Reserve (FED) to reduce interest rates in the near future.

When the FED does not reduce interest rates, the possibility of USD yields remaining quite high, putting pressure on the exchange rate. This risk can have an impact in the short term, so the pressure of stock market adjustment will occur in the short term.

In fact, after the tariff policy was announced, the US stock market reacted in the last trading session of the week, because investors were worried that inflationary pressure would continue to rise.

It is likely that by the end of next year, the FED will cut interest rates, so in the long term, the impact of tariffs will be mild and will not affect the stock market.

- So, how will the domestic stock market be and what is your advice to investors?

- The domestic market's performance will be similar to the global market trend. In the short term, the market may correct downwards due to concerns about inflation in the coming time. After the correction, the market will continue to rise in the medium and long term.

The impact on the domestic stock market may be less than the world market, because Vietnam's current inflation rate is low, so there is not much concern about inflationary pressure.

In the early sessions of next week, there may be downward pressure on the market; it will be a week of market adjustment because last week the global stock market fell sharply.

There are two important milestones that investors can observe: the 1,450-point milestone. If the VN-Index breaks this milestone, the downward pressure will expand to 1,380 points, which is the strongest support zone of the VN-Index in the downtrend.

For investors, this is not the time to buy, in other words, do not "catch the bottom". Investors with a high stock ratio should bring it back to a balance to reduce risk. Next week, even if the market falls, it is not the time to buy but should prioritize risk management.

Thank you very much!

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/thue-doi-ung-cua-hoa-ky-tac-dong-nhu-the-nao-den-thi-truong-chung-khoan-711264.html