China is reducing its consumption of Vietnamese rice. Will the scenario repeat itself like in 2018?

In the first 9 months of this year, Vietnamese rice exports to China decreased by 72% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching only 241,000 tons, instead of the previous level of over 1 million tons/month. Why did billion-people consumers suddenly stop eating Vietnamese rice?

Vietnamese rice exports to China decreased by 72% compared to the same period in 2023, in the first 9 months of 2024 - Photo: CHI QUOC

The above figure is based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development . The story is happening like in 2018, 2019 when export turnover Vietnamese rice to China has dropped sharply, down 20% in the first 6 months of 2019 alone.

It is predicted that the scenario will repeat itself, setting new trends for many. export business

Market fluctuates, quotas… remain unchanged

With a market of billions of people, there is a habit of becoming a culinary culture, that is the habit of eating rice every day, the demand for rice consumption in this market is very large. But now the consumption of rice is decreasing. Many reasons are given.

October 24, exchange with Tuoi Tre Online, A leader of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) informed that Vietnamese rice exports in 2024 will be most promising in March and April, with exports of over 1 million tons/month and the remaining at around 700,000 - 800,000 tons/month. But separately Chinese market is on a sharp decline, only around 200,000 tons/month.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, of the 7 million tons of rice exported in the first 9 months of 2024, more than 70% were mainly exported to the ASEAN market (more than 5 million tons).

The Chinese market only reached over 240,000 tons, down 72% compared to the same period last year, while the proportion of Vietnamese rice accounted for over 35%. The proportion is quite high compared to other countries importing to China.

The ministry also cited China's rice import quota from 2023 to present, which has always been at 5.32 million tons, unchanged in the face of market fluctuations.

China's peak when importing Vietnamese rice was in 2017, reaching 1 billion USD; but in 2019, it only exported 240 million USD; in 2020-2021, it recovered and from 2023 to now, there has been a downward trend.

"China is no longer a market for Vietnamese rice!?"

According to a business with a rice mill and rice export factory in the West, Mr. Nguyen Chanh said: "China has been reducing its consumption of Vietnamese rice for a long time, they have gradually reduced it. China is no longer a market for Vietnamese rice. It may return to the way it was before, in 2018 China "turned around" in importing Vietnamese rice, while in previous years it fluctuated between 1.5-2 million tons/year".

Explaining this, Mr. Chanh said that China is also a top rice producer in the world, but does not export much.

"They mainly import Vietnamese rice grade 504 for industrial processing; some Vietnamese specialty rice is for high-end consumers. And the purchasing partners also export to third countries, because Chinese people are all over the world. Third countries are mainly the South Pacific, the large islands," Mr. Chanh added.

To retain traditional customers, according to a rice exporting enterprise in Ho Chi Minh City, in addition to of course always updating market information and grasping movements, enterprises need to note:

"Chinese people really like to eat fragrant rice, high-quality rice, and ST rice, so businesses must retain "customers" and take advantage of building the Vietnamese rice brand in this most potential market."

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