Admired by millions and reviled by many, Thai billionaire and former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has dominated his country's turbulent politics for more than two decades – although he has largely lived in exile since his ouster in 2006.
Now, Mr Thaksin's announcement of a plan to return home in July has caused a stir as Thai voters prepare to go to the polls in a general election on May 14.
“I have decided to go home to take care of my grandchild in July, before my birthday,” Thaksin, who turns 74 on July 26, said in a Twitter post on May 9. It was the second time this month that the former prime minister has announced plans to return home. “It has been almost 17 years since I left my family. I am also old.”
Analysts say the announcement has implications not only for the looming vote but also for negotiations to form a coalition government that will follow.
Mr Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, 36, is the leading prime ministerial candidate of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, made up of loyalists to the populist movement that first brought her father to power in 2001.
According to most polls, Paetongtarn Shinawatra (centre), Mr Thaksin's youngest daughter, is on track to become Thailand's next prime minister as her Pheu Thai Party hopes to win a landslide victory that would allow it to form a majority government. Photo: EFE
Some have dismissed Mr Thaksin’s latest announcement as a vote-getter move ahead of the upcoming general election. But if he is serious about returning home, it could complicate the post-election situation as Pheu Thai tries to form a coalition with other opposition parties to end the military’s dominance of politics.
That's because to return home, Mr. Thaksin must reach an agreement with some pro-military elements that have ousted him and his relatives from the prime ministership three times.
“The announcement (by Thaksin) may suggest that Pheu Thai is looking for a deal that could help them link up with their former opponents to bring Thaksin back to the country,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the Faculty of Political Science at Ubon Ratchathani University in Thailand.
In any case, Mr Thaksin has once again placed himself at the centre of a political landscape that for years has been at times tumultuous, riven by rivalries between his supporters, who love him for his populist policies, and his opponents, who despise him as crude, opportunistic and corrupt.
Fragile alliance
Pheu Thai is widely expected to win the most seats in the 500-seat House of Representatives in the May 14 vote. But under military-drafted rules, the party may struggle to form a governing coalition, as the 250-seat Senate, which includes members of the junta, also elects the prime minister.
In the general election four years ago, although Pheu Thai won the most seats, votes from the Senate helped incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha maintain power.
This time, Pheu Thai is leading the polls, along with the progressive, youth-oriented Future Forward Party (MFP).
Together, the two opposition parties could win as many as two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, bringing them close to the 75% needed to overcome the 250 votes in the Senate.
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (right) is often seen alongside his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra in social media posts. Photo: Straits Times
And with many other parties expressing interest in joining the opposition coalition, and some members of the Thai Senate recently showing a willingness to challenge the pro-military government, a Pheu Thai-MFP coalition is likely to be formed, but one that would exclude pro-military parties.
As recently as last week, Pheu Thai's Paetongtarn said she would never join with pro-military parties and expressed her willingness to join the MFP in a coalition.
But bringing her father home could ultimately be the deciding factor for Pheu Thai, and that would force them to seek a deal with pro-military elements.
“For Thaksin to come home, there has to be a deal. He can’t just enter Thailand,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.
“After the election, Pheu Thai will wait for the right moment and seek a deal. That is why I think the possibility of Pheu Thai going along with MFP is very slim.”
Repatriation Agreement
Explaining why the ruling conservatives might be willing to make a deal and allow the man they have opposed for decades to return to the country, Mr. Thitinan said that after so much time and turmoil, many in the government have concluded that it is no longer worth fighting Mr. Thaksin.
In fact, according to Mr. Thitinan, populist policies once considered extreme have been integrated into most parties, including those that support the military.
“His opponents and others will think – if Thailand wants to overcome this difficulty, if Thailand wants to find peace and stability again, they have to solve the Thaksin conundrum,” Mr. Thitinan said.
The expert said he could envision a deal that would allow Mr Thaksin to return home, including minimal jail time and a promise not to run for office.
Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra in Dubai, August 11, 2022, with his daughter Paetongtarn and granddaughter. Photo: Bangkok Post
And for the royalist-military government, Mr. Titipol said, the threat that Mr. Thaksin had long represented has been replaced by the MFP, a party with even more progressive proposals, including calls to amend laws against criticizing the king.
“They hate the MFP more. They see it as more of a threat because of its reform programmes,” Mr Titipol concluded.
Mr Thaksin said he would participate in the legal process when he returned to the country, which is still ruled by a pro-military interim government. The former prime minister faces a prison sentence on corruption charges that the Shinawatra family says are politically motivated.
“Don’t worry that I will be a burden to Pheu Thai,” Thaksin said in a follow-up Twitter post to his May 9 repatriation announcement, also hinting at his loyalty to the monarchy. “It is all my own decision because of the love and attachment I have for my family, my country and the King . ”
Minh Duc (According to Reuters, Bloomberg)
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