USD exchange rate today (May 12): USD is approaching the resistance level...

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, stood at 100.42.

Forecast of USD trend this week

The DXY has been rising steadily over the past three weeks. It initially fell early last week but recovered well in the second half of the week. The outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting did not have much impact on the currency market.
Accordingly, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.5%. The US central bank also emphasized that they will not rush to cut interest rates without assessing the impact of tariffs. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rose again after the results of the Fed meeting.

Chart of DXY Index fluctuations over the past week. Photo: Marketwatch

Inflation data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out next week will be a key piece of data to watch this week. If the new data shows that inflation is cooling, it could have a negative impact on the US dollar and US Treasury yields.

The rebound from the low of 99.18 and a close above 100 has given a positive outlook for the DXY in the short term. The psychological level of 100 could be a good support level now. The DXY could rise to the 101.50-102 zone in the short term. But the index needs a strong bullish momentum to break above 102. On the other hand, if the index fails to break above 102, it could reverse from there, dragging the DXY below 100 again. This would also trigger a broader downtrend. This decline could drag the DXY to the 98-96 zone in the coming weeks.

Long term, 96 is a very strong support level that could stop the current decline. We can expect the DXY to rebound from around 96 and rise to 100 or even higher in the medium term.

On the other hand, the EUR has fallen as expected. The EUR/USD pair has fallen to 1.12 as expected. If the index falls below 1.12, it could drag the EUR down to 1.1150 in the near term. However, the possibility of a drop below 1.1150 is low. We expect the EUR to reverse from around 1.1150 and rise to the 1.16-1.18 range in the coming weeks. Overall, the EUR is likely to rise to 1.20 in the coming months.

The US 10-year Treasury yield could rise to 4.55% in the near term. A break above the 4.4% resistance level could trigger this increase. The price action will then need to be closely watched. A break above 4.55% and then 4.6% would establish a bullish bias. This would then take the 10-year Treasury yield back to the 4.8-4.85% zone.

On the other hand, a downside reversal from around 4.55% could drag yields down to the 4.2-4.1%% region again.

USD exchange rate today May 12: USD is approaching the resistance level. Photo: CNBC

Domestic USD exchange rate today

In the domestic market, at the beginning of the trading session on May 12, the State Bank announced the central exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong against the USD at 24,951 VND.

* The reference exchange rate at the State Bank's transaction office increased slightly, currently at: 23,754 VND - 26,148 VND.

USD exchange rates at commercial banks are as follows: