The stock market has just experienced a poor trading week with a series of downward indicators. VN-Index lost 40 points compared to last week, closing at 1,599 points - the lowest level in three months. The average trading value per session also decreased by nearly 10%, reaching about 25,000 billion VND. Foreign investors continued to withdraw money with a net selling value of more than 2,000 billion VND.
"The sharp decline accompanied by widespread active selling pressure is a clear signal that pessimism and caution are covering the entire market," said experts from Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS).
By sector, cash flow is leaving the banking group to move to some groups with stable fundamentals and expected to benefit in the coming period such as steel, oil and gas, and food production. However, in general, trading sessions have liquidity below the weekly and monthly average. According to the analysis team ofACB Securities Company (ABCS), this reflects the weakening of bottom-fishing cash flow.
"VN-Index has fluctuated in a low price range for the past three weeks, but new cash flow has not shown any clear signs of entry. The index is likely to continue to face short-term correction pressure with the nearest support zone around 1,560 points," ACBS analysis team forecast.
Based on technical analysis, many other analysis groups also lean towards the possibility of the market falling in the first trading session of this week. VCBS experts believe that VN-Index will extend its decline for 3 consecutive sessions, then possibly recover around the 1,580-1,590 point range because the RSI (relative strength indicator) reaches the oversold level.
For the past month or so, the 1,600-1,620 point zone has been considered by most investors and securities companies as a reliable support zone for the market. The VN-Index has bounced back strongly many times after touching this zone.
However, according to experts from Tien Phong Securities Company (TPS), the shocking drop last weekend showed that the support force is weakening. If the VN-Index fails to maintain its position around this area in the coming sessions, TPS experts recommend that investors consider the scenario of the market falling further to 1,480-1,500 points, meaning a further loss of 7% compared to the present.
Investors are advised to prioritize risk management by reviewing their portfolios and resolutely restructuring, especially investments that have reached the stop-loss threshold. "Preserving purchasing power and maintaining a stable mentality will help investors better take advantage of market recoveries to restructure their portfolios and seek short-term profits," said VCBS experts.
For investors with a large cash position and willing to hold stocks for the long term, slow disbursement can start from next week. The analysis team of Asean Securities Company suggests investors observe leading stocks, maintaining good profit growth prospects or having supporting stories related to the development of new business areas such as AI, crypto assets.
From a medium-term perspective, Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC) believes that the investment environment in the last quarter of the year is showing mixed signals of risks and opportunities. From the outside, the temporary trade truce between the US and China and a series of bilateral trade agreements signed could contribute to stabilizing global trade, at least until mid-2026.
Domestically, VDSC believes that the technical factor worth monitoring is the highest margin debt ever. Systemic risk is not yet at a level of concern as the amount of cash in investor accounts is still increasing and securities companies have more lending limits thanks to capital increases, but high margin debt can cause stronger corrections.
Regarding profit prospects, VDSC believes that key drivers such as stimulating domestic consumption, stabilizing exports, boosting public investment and credit growth continue to support the growth of listed companies. It is estimated that the total market profit in the fourth quarter of this year increased by about 26% compared to the same period last year, mainly thanks to contributions from real estate, banking and financial services.
Based on these factors, plus the P/E falling to 14.2 times at the beginning of this month, VDSC believes that the reasonable fluctuation range of the index in the next three months is 1,427-1,788 points.
According to VnESource: https://baohaiphong.vn/vn-index-se-ra-sao-sau-khi-thung-moc-1-600-diem-526181.html
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