What will happen to the VN-Index after it breaks below the 1,600-point mark?

Most securities companies predict that the VN-Index will continue to fall, possibly dropping below 1,500 points after breaking through the psychological 1,600-point mark in the last trading session of the week.

Investors monitor the electronic price board at a securities company in Ho Chi Minh City.

The stock market just experienced a disappointing trading week with a series of indicators declining. The VN-Index lost 40 points compared to the previous week, closing at 1,599 points - the lowest level in three months. The average daily trading value also decreased by nearly 10%, reaching approximately 25,000 billion VND. Foreign investors continued to withdraw capital with net selling exceeding 2,000 billion VND.

"The sharp decline, coupled with widespread active selling pressure, is a clear signal that pessimism and caution are prevailing throughout the market," commented an expert from Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS).

By sector, capital is flowing out of the banking sector and into other groups with stable fundamentals and expectations of benefiting in the coming period, such as steel, oil and gas, and food production. However, overall trading sessions have seen liquidity below the weekly and monthly averages. According to the analysis team atACB Securities (ABCS), this reflects a weakening of bargain-hunting capital flows.

"The VN-Index has been fluctuating in low price ranges for the past three weeks, but there are still no clear signs of new capital entering the market. The index is likely to continue facing short-term downward pressure, with the nearest support level around 1,560 points," ACBS analysis team forecasts.

Based on technical analysis, many other analysis groups also lean towards the possibility of a market downturn in the first trading session of this week. VCBS experts believe that the VN-Index will extend its losing streak for three consecutive sessions, then may recover around the 1,580-1,590 point range because the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has reached oversold levels.

For about a month now, the 1,600-1,620 point range has been considered by most investors and securities companies as a reliable support zone for the market. The VN-Index has repeatedly rebounded strongly after touching this range.

However, according to experts at Tien Phong Securities Company (TPS), the sharp drop last weekend showed that support is weakening. If the VN-Index fails to hold around this level in the coming sessions, TPS experts advise investors to consider the scenario of the market falling further to 1,480-1,500 points, a loss of another 7% compared to the current level.

Investors are advised to prioritize risk management by reviewing their portfolios and resolutely restructuring them, especially with investments that have reached stop-loss levels. "Preserving purchasing power and maintaining a stable mindset will help investors better utilize market rallies to restructure their portfolios and seek short-term profits," said a VCBS expert.

For investors with a large cash position and a willingness to hold stocks long-term, a slow disbursement of funds could begin next week. The analysis team at Asean Securities Company suggests investors observe leading stocks that maintain strong earnings growth prospects or have supporting stories related to the development of new business areas such as AI and cryptocurrencies.

From a medium-term perspective, Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) believes that the investment environment in the last quarter of the year is showing a mix of risks and opportunities. Externally, the temporary trade truce between the US and China, along with a series of bilateral trade agreements, could contribute to stabilizing global trade, at least until mid-2026.

Domestically, VDSC believes that the technical factor worth monitoring is the unprecedentedly high level of margin debt. Systemic risk is not yet a cause for concern as the amount of cash in investor accounts continues to increase and securities companies have more lending limits thanks to capital increases, but high margin debt could lead to more severe corrections.

Regarding profit prospects, VDSC believes that key drivers such as stimulating domestic consumption, stabilizing exports, boosting public investment, and increasing credit growth will continue to support the growth of listed companies. Estimated profits for the entire market in the fourth quarter of this year are expected to increase by approximately 26% year-on-year, mainly due to contributions from real estate, banking, and financial services.

Based on these factors, plus the P/E ratio having fallen to 14.2 times earlier this month, VDSC believes the reasonable trading range for the index over the next three months is 1,427-1,788 points.

According to VnE

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/vn-index-se-ra-sao-after-breaking-the-1-600-point-mark-526181.html