3 growth scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City in 2026: The most optimistic scenario reaches 10-11%.

Speaking at the Second Conference of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee Executive Board, term 2025-2030, held on December 15th, Dr. Truong Minh Huy Vu - Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute - stated that the Institute has developed three growth scenarios for the city in 2026.

These are: the baseline scenario with GRDP growth of 8.5 - 9%; the favorable scenario with GRDP growth of 9 - 10.5%; and the most favorable scenario with GRDP growth of 10.5 - 11%.

Ho Chi Minh City hopes that the amended Resolution 98 will soon take effect, attracting strategic investors as early as 2026.

According to the most optimistic scenario, Ho Chi Minh City will make good use of the mechanisms and policies from the amended and supplemented Resolution 98 for specific projects. This will boost the flow of capital from key projects in which strategic investors participate (expected to be from 10 billion USD/project).

To achieve this increase, Mr. Vu believes it is necessary to remove the "bottlenecks" in public investment disbursement and address the backlog of projects - mainly related to compensation and land clearance, especially for road transport projects and metro lines.

Furthermore, the operation of the Ho Chi Minh City International Finance Center will attract new capital flows, creating room for the city to achieve growth exceeding 10.5% - 11%. Therefore, this growth scenario is feasible.

The Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Research has proposed that the city focus on resolving outstanding issues, especially projects.

In addition, "task forces" will be formed and maintained for land clearance and digital transformation, to support localities in the implementation of public investment projects, as well as working with strategic investors.

The city also needs flexible, direct working mechanisms to co-create, collaborate, and share benefits and risks with strategic investors.

Party Secretary Tran Luu Quang noted that Ho Chi Minh City currently has many favorable conditions thanks to increasingly open and robust national policies and mechanisms, and the administrative procedure reform continues to be promoted.

In particular, the National Assembly has just passed a resolution amending Resolution 98 on the special mechanism for the development of Ho Chi Minh City, with many provisions opening up new development opportunities for the city. With such tools and conditions, the city has the foundation to accomplish many great things.

The city's goal is to achieve success as early as 2026, with double-digit growth.

According to the City Party Secretary, with the amended Resolution 98, the city will soon have many projects requiring rapid land clearance and support for implementation by communes and wards.

Ho Chi Minh City currently has "task forces" of about 200 people from the department deployed to the grassroots level to assist communes and wards with land issues and site clearance. In the long term, there will be project management boards, increasing the authority of these boards.

From the beginning of 2026, the Department of Construction will only manage and invest in roads with 4 lanes or more, while other roads, even inter-ward roads, will be handed over to the communes and wards for management.

According to the socio-economic report of the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee presented to the City People's Council at its 6th session, the estimated growth rate of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in 2025 is 8.03%. The total GRDP value is projected to reach 2.74 trillion VND, accounting for 23.5% of the national GDP.

Ho Chi Minh City's per capita GRDP in 2025 is estimated to reach US$8,066. Notably, the city's total state budget revenue this year is estimated at VND 748,438 billion, an increase of 9.6% compared to the same period last year; contributing 31.2% of the national total.

Regarding GRDP growth in 2026, Ho Chi Minh City aims to achieve 9.5%; GRDP at current prices is approximately 3,412 trillion VND. However, the Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee stated that, provided the amended Resolution 98 mechanism takes effect early and is supported by strategic investors, the city's growth will reach 10%, ensuring the government 's double-digit growth target.

The city aims to achieve a budget revenue of over 805,000 billion VND in 2026.

Quang Huy

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/3-kich-ban-tang-truong-cho-tp-hcm-nam-2026-lac-quan-nhat-dat-10-11-ar992938.html