Bitcoin and the Biggest Escape Since 2022

(Dan Tri) - With 100,000 units sold off by a "whale", Bitcoin is facing an important turning point. Is this a warning sign of collapse or a precursor to a historic breakout in the next 50 days?

An event that is happening quietly but is enough to shake the whole market is the massive exodus of bitcoin "whales". In just the past month, more than 100,000 BTC, equivalent to tens of billions of USD, has been transferred from large storage wallets.

According to data from CryptoQuant, this is the strongest sell-off that large investors have made since 2022, creating a wave of uncertainty and pushing the most valuable cryptocurrency on the planet into a decisive turn.

Undercurrent from the ocean: When "whales" dump their goods

After a volatile week, bitcoin has now found support around $110,000 and is at a crucial crossroads in the coming period. Bitcoin has been trading between $104,000 and $116,000 for the past few weeks, while OG whales have recently sold some of their holdings.

The immediate aftermath of this sell-off was that the bitcoin price wobbled and fell below the psychological level of $108,000/BTC, a move that shook the short-term price structure. CryptoQuant analyst Caueconomy said that this aggressive distribution reflects an extremely cautious sentiment from large players, who are often considered to have a longer-term vision and deeper information than the market.

That movement is more than just a short-term fluctuation. Data from Glassnode, a reputable on-chain analytics firm, adds to the picture, showing that the total amount of bitcoin held by whales (entities holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC) has fallen to a seven-year low. More significantly, the average balance of each “whale” is now just 488 BTC—a figure not seen since late 2018.

The market immediately split into two opposing views. One side was concerned that this clear signal of weakness was also a warning that smart holders were quietly leaving the ship before the storm hit.

However, another camp sees the issue more optimistically. They see this as a positive step forward, a healthy redistribution of wealth that brings bitcoin closer to its core decentralization ideal. With less bitcoin concentrated in the hands of a few, the market becomes more sustainable and less susceptible to manipulation.

The history of previous cycles also shows that the distribution process of "whales" often occurs before new accumulation phases, when they take profits at the top and prepare to buy back at lower prices. Therefore, while the immediate selling pressure is real, it can also be a sign of paving the way for a new growth period.

Bitcoin finds support around $110,000 after volatile week, while OG whales sell holdings (Illustration: AI).

Has the growth cycle come to an end?

If whale sell-off data is an indicator of “what” is happening, cycle analysis gives us a perspective on “when” it might end. Market analyst Crypto Birb has come up with a calculation that has shocked many investors. Since its November 2022 bottom, bitcoin has been on a 1,017-day bull run.

Historically, previous bull cycles have typically peaked between 1,060 and 1,100 days. This means that if history is any guide, the current cycle could peak between late October and mid-November this year, with just about 50 days to go.

Another model that supports this hypothesis is the time after the "halving" event - the event that reduces the bitcoin block reward by half, which will take place in April 2024. Statistically, cycle peaks usually form 518 to 580 days after the halving. Currently, the market has gone 503 days. Both models converge at one point: bitcoin is entering the "hot zone", a period where the peak of excitement may soon appear.

The warning that comes with it is also extremely ominous. Crypto Birb notes that every past cycle peak has been followed by a brutal correction, with a 70% - 80% decline within a year. If this scenario repeats, a bear market by 2026 is almost certain.

The Battle at $116,000 and the Global Context

Amid macro analysis, the short-term market is in a tug-of-war. Glassnode describes the current phase as an “accumulation zone,” with bitcoin prices trading in a tight range between $104,000 and $116,000. This is the stage where the market “digests” the large supply from the sell-off and looks for the next direction.

The $116,000 level is considered an important resistance fortress. If bitcoin can sustainably break through this level, confidence will return, attracting new money flows and reactivating the uptrend. Conversely, if the sellers dominate and push the price through the $107,700-108,700 support zone, a deep slide to the $93,000-95,000 zone is entirely possible.

The overall picture is also bleak. Inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs, which were a major driver of growth earlier in the year, have recently turned negative, suggesting that institutional demand is cooling. Futures markets reflect similar tepidity.

Additionally, September has historically been a red hot month for bitcoin. Analyst Benjamin Cowen notes that in post-halving years, September has typically seen the market bottom locally before rebounding strongly in the fourth quarter to create a cyclical peak.

However, there is still a glimmer of hope from the macro factor. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on September 17 is being watched by the whole world. A decision to cut interest rates, even by only 25 basis points, could inject a huge amount of liquidity into the economy , and some of it could flow into risky assets like bitcoin, creating a sudden boost.

September is typically a period of high selling pressure for bitcoin and altcoins as investors prepare for a correction. History shows that bitcoin typically bottoms this month after the halving (Image: The Currency Analytics).

Bitcoin is at a historic crossroads. On one side is the opportunity to break out to set a new peak if it overcomes the resistance of 116,000 USD/BTC, on the other side is the risk of collapsing if it breaks through the important support level.

With whales selling, ETF flows weakening, and cycle times seemingly coming to a close, investors need to be extremely cautious.

However, in the midst of a stormy mainstream market, new projects like Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) are emerging as a bright spot. Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER) has attracted over $13.7 million in funding, aiming to solve the core problems of bitcoin: slow transactions, high fees and lack of smart contracts.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/bitcoin-va-cuoc-dao-thoat-lon-nhat-ke-tu-nam-2022-20250906000105903.htm