What does Erdogan's victory mean for Türkiye and the world?

Turkey will celebrate 100 years of republicanism this year. First as prime minister and then as president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been the political leader of the republic for a fifth of that century. His victory in the presidential runoff election on May 28th gives him another five years in power.

That Erdogan has managed to overcome arguably the biggest challenge to his political career is remarkable given Turkey’s struggling economy and lingering public anger over the government’s response to the February earthquake that killed at least 50,000 people. So what does Erdogan’s victory mean for the future of Turkey and the wider world? That is the question on many people’s minds.

What does Erdogan's victory mean for Türkiye and the world? - 1 — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (Photo: Getty)

Erdogan's Victory: Today's Continuation

For Türkiye, Erdoğan's third and final term means “a continuation of today,” but today for many Turks is a day they want to pass quickly.

The Turkish economy is currently facing serious problems, including high inflation and low foreign exchange reserves. The current economic policy is said to be unable to help Türkiye achieve high growth rates or boost exports. This is the biggest problem that Mr. Erdogan needs to solve quickly.

The key now for President Erdogan and the new government is to reassure both domestic and foreign investors about the Turkish economy. In his victory speech, Erdogan spoke extensively about the Turkish economy, showing that he is determined to chart a stronger course for the economy.

Profound international influence

It must be affirmed that the impact of Mr. Erdogan's victory is not limited to Türkiye but also has a profound impact internationally, especially on NATO. Unlike other members of the alliance, Türkiye has made great efforts to strengthen its close relationship with Russia.

Ankara controversially purchased the S-400 missile defense system from Moscow in 2017. While most other countries sanctioned Russia after it launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine, Türkiye continued to do business with Moscow.

In a recent interview with CNN, Erdogan touted his “special relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and reiterated Turkey’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO. Turkey has previously sought to block Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, citing concerns over their support for Kurdish militants, which Türkiye and the United States consider terrorist organizations.

Although Türkiye eventually dropped its objections to Finland – which then became NATO's 31st member – it continued to maintain its veto over Sweden's bid to join the alliance.

“Over the next five years, we will likely see a strengthening of the relationship between Erdogan and Putin,” said Gonul Tol, a political scientist at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “He has used Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO as a trump card to gain concessions from the West. And he has a lot of options, so he will try to exploit them.”

However, most analysts still expect President Erdogan to eventually nod in agreement to Sweden joining NATO – if not before the NATO summit in Vilnius at the end of July, then perhaps by the end of this year.

“Erdogan values Turkey’s presence in NATO because he knows it gives Ankara more leverage in international affairs,” said Galip Dalay, a fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House. “Indeed, Erdogan has sought to portray Turkey as a significant mediator between Russia and the West, facilitating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and helping broker a major Black Sea grain deal last year.”

Erdogan’s victory could also have a decisive impact on Turkey’s estimated 3.6 million Syrian refugees. While Kilicdaroglu has pledged to deport all refugees if elected, Erdogan has said his government plans to build hundreds of thousands of homes in northern Syria to facilitate the voluntary return of refugees.

According to Ms. Gonul Tol, how President Erdogan governs the country and handles international relations in his final term will largely depend on how the world chooses to react to his victory, especially the West.

Whether the West is ready to confront an increasingly unpredictable and uncontrollable Türkiye or maintain a trading relationship with it is a difficult question, Ms. Tol said, but as long as Mr. Erdogan accepts Syrian refugees in Turkey, the West can continue to work with Ankara and ignore other issues that it is not really satisfied with.

Hung Cuong (VOV.VN)

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