Turkey will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its republic this year. First as Prime Minister and then President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held political leadership of the republic for a fifth of a century. Erdogan's victory in the second round of the presidential election on May 28 gives him another five years in power.
Erdogan's ability to weather what is widely considered the biggest challenge of his political career is remarkable, given Turkey's struggling economy and the lingering public outrage over the government's response to the February earthquake that killed at least 50,000 people. So what does Erdogan's victory mean for Turkey's future, and more broadly for the world? This is a question many are asking.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (Photo: Getty)
Erdogan's victory: A continuation of today's events.
For Türkiye, Erdoğan's third and final term means "the continuation of today," but for many Turks, today is a day they wish would pass quickly.
The Turkish economy is currently facing serious problems, including high inflation and low foreign exchange reserves. Current economic policies are considered incapable of helping Türkiye achieve high growth rates or boost exports. This is the biggest problem Erdogan needs to address quickly.
The priority for President Erdogan and the new government now is to reassure both domestic and foreign investors about the Turkish economy. In his victory speech, Erdogan discussed the Turkish economy in great detail, demonstrating his determination to present a stronger economic roadmap.
A profound international impact.
It must be emphasized that the impact of Erdogan's victory is not limited to Türkiye but has a profound international effect, particularly on NATO. Unlike other members of the alliance, Türkiye has made significant efforts to strengthen its close relationship with Russia.
In 2017, Ankara sparked controversy by purchasing the S-400 missile defense system from Moscow. While most other countries sanctioned Russia after it launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine, Türkiye continued to do business with Moscow.
In a recent interview with CNN, Erdogan praised his “special relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and reiterated Turkey’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO. Previously, Türkiye had sought to prevent Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, citing concerns about their support for Kurdish fighters, which Türkiye and the US consider terrorist organizations.
Although Türkiye eventually lifted its opposition to Finland – which later became NATO's 31st member – it continued to maintain its veto power over Sweden's attempts to join the alliance.
Political scientist Gonul Tol at the Middle East Institute in Washington assessed: “Over the next five years, we may see the relationship between Erdogan and Putin further solidify. He [Erdogan] has used Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO as a trump card to gain concessions from the West. And with so many options at his disposal, he will try to exploit them further.”
However, most analysts still expect President Erdogan to eventually give the green light for Sweden to join NATO – if not before the NATO summit in Vilnius at the end of July, then possibly by the end of this year.
Galip Dalay, an expert at the London-based think tank Chatham House, commented: “Erdogan greatly values Turkey’s presence in NATO because he knows it gives Ankara more leverage in international affairs. Indeed, Erdogan has sought to portray Turkey as a significant mediator between Russia and the West, fostering peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as helping to broker a crucial Black Sea grain deal last year.”
Erdogan's victory could also have a decisive impact on the approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Türkiye. While Kilicdaroglu – Erdogan's direct opponent in the recent election – has pledged to deport all refugees from the country if elected, Erdogan says his government plans to build hundreds of thousands of homes in northern Syria to facilitate the voluntary return of refugees.
According to Gonul Tol, how President Erdogan governs the country and handles international relations in his final term will largely depend on how the world, particularly the West, chooses to react to his victory.
Ms. Tol assessed that whether the West is ready to confront an increasingly unpredictable and uncontrollable Türkiye, or whether it will maintain a trade relationship with the country, is a difficult question. However, as long as Erdogan accepts Syrian refugees in Türkiye, the West can continue to work with Ankara and overlook other issues that they are not entirely satisfied with.
Hung Cuong (VOV.VN)
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