Proposing breakthrough solutions for Vietnam to achieve growth targets
(Chinhphu.vn) – To develop the economy, Vietnam needs to reform the tax system and budget spending in a sustainable manner, effectively implement incentives for small enterprises; prioritize science and technology development, and strengthen monitoring and policy feedback from practice.
Báo Chính Phủ•03/06/2025
Seminar "Orientation and solutions for high and sustainable economic growth by 2045" - Photo: VGP/HT
This is the content discussed at the seminar "Orientation and solutions for high and sustainable economic growth to 2045" organized by the National Economics University on June 3 in Hanoi .
Strengthen supervision to have practical and effective steps
According to Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, Director of the National Economics University, Vietnam is facing an urgent need to improve competitiveness, restructure the economy and make the most of opportunities from international economic integration to achieve sustainable development goals. The Party and State have set a growth target of 8% or more by 2025 and a "double-digit" growth rate in the 2026-2030 period, aiming for upper-middle-income countries by 2030 and high-income countries by 2045. Pursuing a double-digit economic growth target is not only a strategic aspiration, but also a measure reflecting the country's vision, determination and macroeconomic management capacity.
However, the path to realizing the double-digit growth target poses many challenges in terms of institutions, resources, growth quality, labor productivity, science and technology, and internal capacity of enterprises. At the same time, the global context is experiencing many fluctuations with factors such as geopolitical tensions, changes in policies of major countries, digital transformation, supply chain shifts, and green and sustainable development requirements, etc., requiring Vietnam to have flexible, effective, and breakthrough development strategies.
Prof. Dr. Pham Hong Chuong, Director of National Economics University - Photo: VGP/HT
Citing data from the World Bank (WB), Prof. Dr. Tran Thi Van Hoa (National Economics University) said that the current high-income threshold is 14,006 USD. Assuming an average global inflation of 3%/year, the expected high-income threshold for 2045 is 26,835 USD. With Vietnam's population growth rate expected to be 0.7% per year, the required GDP growth rate is 9.5%/year.
Ms. Hoa forecasts three growth scenarios, aiming for Vietnam to enter the high-income group by 2045.
Scenarios A and B set a moderate growth target, but the possibility of a breakthrough is limited. Although both of these options are easier to implement, they risk causing Vietnam to fall into the "middle-income trap", when GDP/capita by 2045 will only stop at 18,000–25,000 USD, not enough to become a developed country.
Ms. Hoa recommends scenario C, with an ambitious target of GDP growth of 11–12% per year in the 2025–2035 period, bringing per capita income to 28,370 USD by 2045. According to Prof. Dr. Tran Thi Van Hoa, this is a feasible scenario if Vietnam dares to carry out drastic institutional reforms, invest heavily in strategic infrastructure, improve the quality of human resources and proactively apply high technology.
Prof. Dr. Tran Thi Van Hoa (National Economics University) - Photo: VGP/HT
Associate Professor Dr. Pham The Anh, Head of the Faculty of Economics - National Economics University, expressed his agreement with the restructuring of budget expenditures towards streamlining the apparatus, while seeking sustainable sources of revenue...
This expert recommends that monetary policy ensure proactive regulation of the macro economy, along with creating a stable mentality among investors, limiting capital in the economy from "flowing" into asset markets instead of long-term production and business.
Regarding fiscal policy, expert Pham The Anh said that it is necessary to reduce personal and corporate income tax to stimulate investment and consumption, while expanding the revenue base from property tax, thereby ensuring that the budget does not suffer a revenue shortfall. In addition, divesting from state-owned enterprises and encouraging the public-private partnership (PPP) model appropriately are also emphasized solutions to increase the efficiency of public capital use.
Another key point is the need to improve policy implementation efficiency, and there needs to be a more flexible policy monitoring and updating mechanism.
"We have many correct policies, but lack a mechanism for timely policy feedback from practical business and people," Mr. Pham The Anh commented.
More attention to small, private enterprises and technological innovation
Associate Professor, Dr. Vu Sy Cuong frankly stated: The current policy situation, with the assessment that tax incentives for small and medium enterprises are still not close to reality.
"We expect to reduce income tax on small and medium-sized enterprises, but in reality, most enterprises are still subject to the same tax rate. There is still a gap between policy expectations and implementation," said Mr. Cuong.
In particular, Associate Professor Dr. Cuong warned about the risks of the social insurance system in the context of a rapidly aging population.
In the field of science and technology – an important driving force for sustainable growth, Associate Professor Dr. Vu Sy Cuong pointed out that many support policies have been issued, but implementation still faces many barriers, from procedures to enforcement capacity. He proposed that it is necessary to allocate a more appropriate budget for research and development (R&D), while encouraging the private sector to participate in forming an innovation ecosystem.
Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee - Photo: VGP/HT
In his concluding remarks at the seminar, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Hong Son, Deputy Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee, mentioned the relationship between the role of the state and private economic development. According to Mr. Nguyen Hong Son, he agreed that the management mindset needs to shift from "management" to "creation" to encourage the development of the private sector.
"Economic growth can only be achieved when solutions are actually implemented. It is necessary to shift from theoretical policy thinking to action with serious supervision and inspection," said Mr. Son.
Mr. Nguyen Hong Son said that Vietnam should carefully study advanced governance models from developed countries to adjust them to suit the reality. In particular, it is necessary to pay special attention to financial risk measurement models, crisis response policies, and especially policy coordination between ministries and branches to avoid "mismatches" in the management process.
"The coordination role between the parties - the state, enterprises, academia and social organizations - is affirmed to be a decisive factor to ensure that solutions are implemented effectively, continuously and synchronously. In fact, in recent times, the Party and the Government have issued Resolutions and directives related to fiscal and monetary policies as well as emphasized the requirement of policy effectiveness to promote sustainable growth," said a representative of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee.
Notably, the Government has issued Resolution No. 138/NQ-CP of the Government promulgating the Government's Action Plan to implement Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW dated May 4, 2025 of the Politburo on private economic development.
Recently, the Government issued Resolution 154/NQ-CP dated May 31, 2025, emphasizing the need for flexible management and close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize the macro-economy, control inflation and promote growth. At the same time, it requires perfecting institutions, improving the effectiveness and efficiency of law enforcement, and creating favorable conditions for people and businesses.
To effectively implement incentives for small and medium-sized enterprises and science and technology, the Government has proposed allocating 3% of the total state budget expenditure in 2025 for science, technology, innovation and national digital transformation, in order to meet the requirements of Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW of the Politburo. This is an important step to support small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as promote the development of science and technology...
Notably, emphasizing the role of creation, the Prime Minister signed and issued Directive No. 14/CT-TTg dated May 28, 2025 on developing the socio-economic development plan and state budget estimate for 2026, requiring ministries, central and local agencies to constantly innovate, be creative, dare to think, dare to do, consider people and enterprises as the center and subject of all policies, promote the will of self-reliance, self-reliance and the desire to rise up.
To strengthen monitoring and policy feedback from practice, the Government has requested ministries, central and local agencies to organize assessments and estimate the implementation of the 2025 Socio-Economic Development Plan in all sectors and fields assigned to them for management. In particular, focusing on clarifying the work of reviewing, supplementing and perfecting institutions in conjunction with improving the effectiveness and efficiency of law enforcement, cutting and simplifying administrative procedures, business regulations, removing bottlenecks, creating favorable conditions for people and businesses...
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