Forecasting US foreign policy if Trump is re-elected
Báo Thanh niên•20/09/2024
While US presidential candidate Kamala Harris is expected to not change much in foreign policy compared to the current administration, how will her opponent Donald Trump change this if he wins the upcoming White House race?
In an analysis sent to Thanh Nien , Dr. Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group (USA) - the world's leading political risk research and consulting unit, gave his opinion on US foreign policy if Mr. Trump is elected.
As US President from 2017 to 2021, Mr. Trump may have achieved some foreign policy successes, including the re-establishment of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Abraham Accords (normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab countries), fairer cost-sharing among NATO members, and new security alliances in Asia. These results occurred in the context of a generally moderate and peaceful international environment, at least before the Covid-19 pandemic broke out near the end of his term.
Mr. Trump at a campaign rally on September 18.
Photo: Reuters
However, since then, two major regional wars, increasingly fierce competition between major powers and China, serious instability in the Middle East and the prolonged conflict in Ukraine, a stagnant global economy , the explosion of artificial intelligence ... have posed completely new requirements if Mr. Trump is re-elected. Mr. Bremmer predicted: "A second term (if any) of Mr. Trump will likely lead to more extreme foreign policy outcomes than his first term as well as the current administration.
Changing Perspectives
According to Dr. Bremmer, Mr. Trump will take a harder line on Chinese competition. This will start with the return of Mr. Robert Lighthizer, a trade expert who was considered a "hawk" under Mr. Trump, and pushing for much higher tariffs on imports from China. At the same time, Mr. Trump will likely also rekindle old tensions with US allies such as Japan and South Korea by demanding a review of some trade agreements. But if this scenario happens, Washington could make Tokyo and Seoul "friendlier" with Beijing. Meanwhile, China could "retaliate" uncompromisingly, leading not only to trade tensions, but also to military instability, especially in the waters in the region. The risk of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait could increase. Of course, if China’s economic outlook continues to be weak, Beijing could cave in and offer a big deal that would give Trump a “victory” domestically by reducing the trade deficit with China. But if that happens, Taiwan could be part of the deal, as Dr. Bremmer said Beijing believes that Washington under Trump — compared to the current administration — will be less committed to Taiwan. In the Middle East, Mr. Bremmer said Mr. Trump could play a stabilizing role. The Abraham Accords, perhaps the White House’s biggest foreign policy achievement under Mr. Trump, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, raising hopes for a more stable and prosperous region. But the risk is that Mr. Trump may lack restraint in using military force against Iran, as he did when he ordered the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, which led to an escalation of tensions. However, given recent developments, Tehran does not appear to want a direct war with Washington or Tel Aviv, with little chance of victory for Iran. So, even with his risky approach, Trump is likely to cool things down in the region. Former President Trump once declared that if elected, he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours by unilaterally forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept an immediate ceasefire. In this case, if President Zelensky rejects Trump’s terms, Washington could cut off military aid to Kyiv. Conversely, if President Putin refuses to negotiate, the US could increase aid to Ukraine. Ukraine’s NATO membership is unlikely under Trump. However, to get Kyiv to negotiate, Washington could offer a security guarantee for Ukraine as part of a breakthrough deal to stop Russia from continuing its attacks. That leaves the EU with much of the burden of accelerating Kyiv’s accession and financing Ukraine’s reconstruction. As for NATO, most European members will be unwilling or unable to meet Trump’s demands for greater burden-sharing across the alliance. Trump is unlikely to unilaterally withdraw the US from NATO, of course, but he could reduce his forces in Europe. Back in Asia, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would likely welcome Trump. Trump, meanwhile, may still be attracted by the long-term prospect of a deal he believes no other US president has achieved: denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But that could pose a challenge to South Korea. Finally, a second term, if Trump does have one, would again seek to strike new deals with Mexico on both border security and trade, according to Dr. Bremmer. Trump's harsh rhetoric and a scheduled review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal in 2026 could lead to disagreements between the countries.
Trump - Harris race has not broken through
Yesterday (Vietnam time), Fox News reported that the national survey results showed that the rate of people supporting US Vice President Kamala Harris was 50% compared to 48% for former President Donald Trump. Accordingly, this number shows that there is still no clear leader in the race to the White House. Both candidates are roughly equal in terms of their ability to do a better job in bringing about necessary change (Ms. Harris is 50% and Mr. Trump is 47%), and making America safe (50% Trump with 47% Harris). Ms. Harris is considered to be slightly better in helping the middle class (53% Harris with 44% Trump), uniting America (50% Harris with 45% Trump). Meanwhile, Mr. Trump leads by 5 points on the question of who is more trustworthy in handling the economy (51% Trump and 46% Harris) and widens the gap by 10 points on immigration issues (54% Trump with 44% Harris). The two candidates are neck and neck on taxes (49%) and guns (49% Trump vs. 48% Harris).
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