Coffee exports for the whole year of 2023 are estimated at 1.606 million tons.

At the end of the trading session on the weekend of January 5, world coffee prices moved in opposite directions. While Arabica coffee continued to fall to its lowest level in a month, Robusta coffee prices increased for the second consecutive session.

On the New York floor, the price of Arabica coffee for delivery in March 2024 decreased by 2.75 cents/lb, at 182.8 cents/lb, and for delivery in May 2024 decreased by 2.4 cents/lb, at 181.1 cents/lb.

Coffee prices on both exchanges continued to move in opposite directions. Rainy weather in Brazil and a recovering USD pushed Arabica prices down sharply.

Preliminary statistics from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE) show that Brazil has granted export permits for about 4.06 million bags of coffee (60 kg/bag) in December 2023. Thus, coffee exports in December 2023 may generally slow down compared to the record level in November 2023, but still be 33% higher than the same period last year.

Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023 are estimated to decrease by 9.6% compared to 2022.

According to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) under the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), FAS estimates that Vietnam's 2023-2024 crop year output will decrease to 27.8 million bags from an estimated 31.3 million bags in May 2023, due to unfavorable weather.

USDA forecasts Vietnam's robusta coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year at around 26.6 million bags, up 1.2% from the previous crop year; while arabica will decrease 11.1% to 880,000 bags.

However, Vietnam's total supply is still lower than the previous crop year as the carryover inventory in the 2022-23 crop year is only 390,000 bags, down sharply from 3.58 million bags in the 2021-22 crop year.

As a result, Vietnam’s green coffee exports are forecast to decline by 2.4 million bags to 23 million bags. Ending stocks for 2023-24 are expected to remain low at 359,000 tonnes.

Also according to the Industry and Trade Information Center - Ministry of Industry and Trade (VITIC), major coffee markets in Asia have slowed down trading amid low demand for Vietnam's Robusta coffee this week.

Vietnam's coffee exports in 2023 are estimated to decrease by 9.6% compared to 2022, down to 1.6 million tons, but export revenue increased by 3.1% to 4.2 billion USD.

Meanwhile, official data from Indonesia showed that the country exported 12,962.36 tons of Sumatran Robusta coffee in November, down 77.5% year-on-year and lower than the monthly export volume. The Robusta harvest in South Sumatra usually starts in March-April.

The General Statistics Office of Vietnam estimates that coffee exports in December reached about 190 thousand tons, down 3.5% over the same period last year, bringing coffee exports for the whole year of 2023 to an estimated 1.606 million tons, down nearly 10% compared to 2022.

When commenting on the global coffee supply and demand situation, Mr. Steve Wateridge - Head of Research, Tropical Research Services said that the world will not have a shortage or difficulty with the supply of Arabica but will have difficulties with Robusta. The harvest will end 6 months earlier than other coffee growing countries, which is an advantage for Vietnamese coffee and next year if there is a suitable crop, it can catch up with this trend.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the 2023/2024 coffee crop has been through 2 months and is forecast to continue to be a difficult and challenging crop year for the world coffee industry.

Climate change with extreme weather events will greatly affect the global coffee supply, reducing productivity, output and quality, according to the latest report of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade).

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