Outstanding stock loans are sky high, what is the market forecast for the new week?

chứng khoán - Ảnh 1. — The stock market is showing divergence during the third-quarter earnings season - Photo: QUANG DINH

* Ms. Tran Thi Ngoc Hoa - Securities Analyst at Mirae Asset Vietnam:

On the positive side, many securities companies are increasing their equity capital.

- The Vietnamese stock market just experienced a volatile trading week as the VN-Index fell sharply to 1,683.2 points, equivalent to a 2.8% decrease compared to the previous week and a 6.2% loss from the peak of 1,794 points recorded on October 14th.

The selling pressure was concentrated mainly in the securities and banking sectors, causing market volatility to surge.

Market liquidity remained at an average of 35,000 billion VND per session, down 11% compared to the previous week. Specifically, the real estate sector saw a sharp decline of 26%, basic construction a decrease of 25%, and banking a decrease of 13%.

Conversely, cash flow tends to shift towards the retail sector (+15%) and software and technology services (+33%).

Foreign investors continued to net sell over 4,400 billion VND, while domestic individual investors net bought 900 billion VND, and domestic institutions net bought 3,400 billion VND.

ETFs also maintained a net selling trend, with 243 billion VND sold this week and a cumulative total of 15,300 billion VND from the beginning of the year to October 24th.

In terms of valuation, the market-wide P/E ratio has fallen from 17 times to 16.2 times, lower than the long-term average of 16.7 times.

As of October 24th, 145 out of 392 listed companies on the HoSE had announced their Q3 business results, representing 24.6% of the total market capitalization. This group recorded a 51.4% increase in profits compared to the same period last year, and a 26.5% increase in the first nine months of the year.

Based on this recovery trend, the forecast for earnings per share (EPS) of the VN-Index in 2025 could increase by 23% in the base scenario and 33% in the optimistic scenario.

By the end of the third quarter, outstanding margin lending across the market reached over VND 369,000 billion, equivalent to 112.3% of the equity capital of securities companies – a relatively high level historically, only lower than the peak period of 2021-2022 (120-130%).

However, a positive point is that many securities companies are increasing their equity capital, contributing to strengthening the safety of the system.

In the short term, market volatility is expected to remain high, therefore investors should prioritize risk management and limit holdings of poorly valued stocks.

In the long term, the prospect of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market is still considered an important growth driver, which could help attract more foreign capital and create a foundation for a sustainable recovery phase of the market in the future.

* Mr. Phan Tan Nhat - Head of Market Strategy Department, SHS:

Cash flow is starting to return to certain groups.

Under the influence of large-cap stocks (VN30), the general index is currently entering a consolidation phase after the previous strong rally. Profit-taking pressure at high price levels is becoming evident, especially in many leading stocks with strong fundamentals, as the VN-Index retests the 1,700-point level.

In the short term, the uptrend that began in April 2025 appears to be coming to an end, leading to significant market divergence. Two main trends can be observed:

- Increased selling pressure on stocks that have risen sharply recently and are highly leveraged;

Conversely, cash flow is starting to return to stocks and sectors that have undergone deep corrections to the price levels of April and May 2025, especially those companies with positive Q3 business results.

Investors should maintain a reasonable portfolio allocation, prioritizing leading companies with attractive valuations and stable business growth. Investment targets should be focused on strategic sectors that have the potential to drive economic growth in the coming period.

According to many securities companies, the 1,700-point mark is considered a crucial resistance level, playing a decisive role in the market's next trend. If the VN-Index fails to successfully conquer this level, profit-taking pressure may increase.

Meanwhile, expert Thai Phuong Thao from the Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) analysis team stated that capital flows have become more diversified across real estate, retail, and oil and gas sectors, while financial sectors such as banking and securities continue their downward trend.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/du-no-cho-vay-chung-khoan-cao-chot-vot-du-bao-thi-truong-tuan-moi-ra-sao-20251027091313938.htm