Outstanding stock loans are sky high, what is the market forecast for the new week?

By the end of the third quarter, outstanding securities margin loans reached more than VND369,000 billion, equivalent to 112.3% of equity capital of securities companies, a relatively high level in history, only lower than the peak period of 2021-2022 (120-130%).

The stock market is divided in the third quarter business results season - Photo: QUANG DINH

* Ms. Tran Thi Ngoc Hoa - analyst at Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities:

On the positive side, many securities companies are increasing their equity capital.

- The Vietnamese stock market has just experienced a volatile trading week when the VN-Index dropped sharply to 1,683.2 points, equivalent to a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous week and a loss of 6.2% compared to the peak of 1,794 points recorded on October 14.

Adjustment pressure focused mainly on securities and banking stocks, causing the market volatility index to spike.

Market liquidity remained at an average of VND35,000 billion per session, down 11% compared to last week. Of which, the real estate group fell sharply by 26%, construction by 25%, and banking by 13%.

On the contrary, cash flow tends to shift to the retail group (+15%) and software - technology services (+33%).

Foreign investors continued to net sell more than 4,400 billion VND, while domestic individual investors net bought 900 billion VND, and domestic organizations net bought 3,400 billion VND.

ETF funds also maintained a net selling trend, with 243 billion VND in the week and accumulated from the beginning of the year to October 24 reaching 15,300 billion VND.

In terms of valuation, the market-wide P/E ratio has fallen from 17x to 16.2x, lower than the long-term average of 16.7x.

As of October 24, 145 out of 392 listed companies on HoSE had announced their third quarter business results, equivalent to 24.6% of total market capitalization. This group recorded a profit growth of 51.4% over the same period, and an increase of 26.5% in the first 9 months of the year.

Based on this recovery trend, VN-Index's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) forecast could increase by 23% under the base case scenario and 33% under the upside scenario.

By the end of the third quarter, outstanding margin loans in the entire market reached more than VND369,000 billion, equivalent to 112.3% of equity capital of securities companies - a relatively high level in history, only lower than the peak period of 2021-2022 (120-130%).

However, the positive point is that many securities companies are increasing their equity capital, contributing to strengthening the safety of the system.

In the short term, market volatility is forecast to remain high, so investors need to prioritize risk management and limit holding stocks with unattractive valuations.

In the long term, the prospect of upgrading Vietnam's stock market is still considered an important growth driver, which can help attract more foreign capital and create a foundation for a sustainable recovery period of the market in the coming time.

* Mr. Phan Tan Nhat - Head of SHS market strategy department:

Money is starting to come back to some groups.

Under the impact of large-cap stocks (VN30), the general index is currently entering an accumulation phase after the previous strong increase. Profit-taking pressure at high prices is clearly appearing, especially in many leading stocks with good fundamentals, when the VN-Index retests the 1,700-point zone.

In the short term, the uptrend that has lasted since April 2025 seems to be reaching its end, causing the market to diverge strongly. Two main trends can be seen:

- Selling pressure has increased on stocks that have increased sharply in recent times and are highly leveraged;

- On the contrary, cash flow has begun to return to stocks and industry groups that have made deep adjustments to the price range of April and May 2025, especially businesses with positive third-quarter business results.

Investors should maintain a reasonable portfolio weight, prioritizing leading companies with attractive valuations and stable business growth. Investment targets should be directed towards strategic industries that are capable of leading the economic growth in the coming period.

According to many securities companies, the 1,700-point mark is considered an important resistance zone, playing a decisive role in the next trend of the market. If the VN-Index cannot successfully conquer this threshold, profit-taking pressure may increase.

Meanwhile, expert Thai Phuong Thao - Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) analysis team - said that cash flow recorded a return to differentiation in real estate, retail, and oil and gas groups, while financial groups such as banking and securities continued to decline.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/du-no-cho-vay-chung-khoan-cao-chot-vot-du-bao-thi-truong-tuan-moi-ra-sao-20251027091313938.htm