ECB likely to keep interest rates at 2% until 2027

VTV.vn - Economists predict the ECB will keep deposit interest rates unchanged at its monetary policy meeting next week.

The euro symbol in front of the European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany. Photo: AFP/TTXVN

The European Central Bank (ECB) is forecast to keep interest rates at 2% until 2027, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists from October 17 to 22.

Economists expect the ECB to keep its deposit rate unchanged at its monetary policy meeting next week. However, the ECB is not ruling out further action. A third of respondents expect at least one more rate cut after eight so far, while 17% expect one or more rate hikes by the end of next year.

Dennis Shen, an economist at Scope, a credit rating and analysis firm, does not expect any further rate cuts this year, but the ECB will keep its options open, with the possibility of further easing rather than tightening. He has also warned of a significant appreciation of the euro past $1.20 and additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

Swedbank chief economist Nerijus Maciulis said inflation remained close to target, and despite some volatile growth indicators in recent months, there was no guarantee of a change in the ECB's monetary policy.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to repeat her key message from the September 2025 meeting, saying the economic and inflation situation remains healthy.

ECB officials are unlikely to change interest rates anytime soon, satisfied with the pace of consumer price growth and the state of the regional economy. They say monetary policy is showing flexibility in responding to new challenges. Europe is caught between US-China trade tensions over semiconductors and rare earths, while a credit rating downgrade is complicating France’s finances and doubts are rising about the viability of Germany’s comprehensive defense and infrastructure investment plans. At the same time, Europe’s delay in a new emissions trading system risks putting pressure on inflation in coming years, and rising asset prices are raising concerns about a potential market crash.

If the December outlook shows inflation falling significantly below the 2% target by 2028, with a key threshold of 1.6%, interest rates could fall further. Near-term risks to economic growth and inflation are assessed as balanced, while future uncertainty remains high. However, respondents are more concerned about upside risks than downside risks, after prices rose 2.2% in September 2025, the fastest pace in five months.

Even if Ms. Lagarde and other officials advocate further rate cuts, analysts say they will have a limited impact on demand. More than 60% believe growth is being held back by both cyclical and structural factors. Most of the rest blame structural factors for the bloc’s slowdown. With the ECB remaining in its optimal scenario of “moderate” inflation, neither too high nor too low, creating favorable conditions for long-term investment and spending, the short-term weakness from US tariffs will soon be offset by fiscal stimulus in Germany, allowing the ECB to keep rates unchanged.

Source: https://vtv.vn/ecb-co-the-se-giu-nguyen-lai-suat-o-muc-2-cho-den-nam-2027-100251025054932164.htm