October is the time when Vietnam’s coffee harvest season begins, contributing to the cooling of the price fever as supply will be significantly supplemented in the coming time. However, the sharp price drop in recent days has brought domestic coffee close to the 100,000 VND/kg mark, making many farmers worried.
Coffee price today 10/23/2024
World coffee prices continue to be in the red, speculation on the floor sells strongly. Robusta is moving away from its peak, losing the mark of 4,500 USD/ton.
Domestic coffee prices today, October 23, are trading in the range of 109,400 - 109,700 VND/kg. Thus, domestic coffee prices are gradually decreasing day by day, approaching the 100,000 VND/kg mark, making many farmers worried as the peak harvest season approaches.
The market, in addition to being under pressure from the new crop supply in Vietnam, is also affected by the continued high USD and favorable rains in Brazil, signaling good news for the new harvest, contributing to "cooling down" the market. The USD rose to a new high in more than 2 months in the last trading session, due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will adjust the interest rate cut roadmap, while investors are waiting for the important event, the US presidential election.
However, experts said that yesterday's session on the London and New York exchanges continued to decline due to manipulation by hedge funds on the exchanges. Coffee prices during the session increased at times, adding more than 90 USD/ton for robusta, but because it was the closing day for business positions, speculators on the exchanges sold strongly at the peak, liquidating previous purchases, causing the two exchanges to decline immediately afterwards and close at a negative level.
Colombia's coffee production in the 2024-25 crop year is expected to increase by 15% compared to the 2023-24 crop year, reaching a total of around 13 million bags, according to a recent report by the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation (FNC). Colombia's coffee exports in the October 2023-September 2024 crop year have increased by 1.08 million bags, or 10.1%, compared to the 2022-23 crop year, to a total of 12.75 million bags. The report also said that 100,000 hectares of coffee will be replaced with new varieties this year, bringing the total coffee area in Colombia to 842,000 hectares. The FNC said it is focusing on increasing yields to 17 bags per hectare, through increased use of inputs such as fertilizers.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, October 23, sharply decreased by 1,600 - 1,900 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Giacaphe) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on October 22, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to decrease sharply, the delivery period in November 2024 decreased by 90 USD, trading at 4,487 USD/ton. The delivery period in January 2025 decreased by 78 USD, trading at 4,425 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fell sharply, with the December 2024 delivery term down 1.85 cents, trading at 249.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery term down 1.70 cents, trading at 248.75 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.
Domestic coffee prices today, October 23, sharply decreased by 1,600 - 1,900 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Coffee is currently the agricultural product with the strongest price increase among Vietnam's main export products. In September alone, the average export price of coffee reached 5,469 USD/ton - the highest level ever, up 5.8% compared to the previous month and up 68.7% compared to the same period last year.
The decline in production, while the global demand for robusta coffee increased sharply, is the main factor causing coffee prices to continuously increase and reach a new peak in the 2023-2024 crop year. Vietnam, the world's largest producer and exporter of robusta coffee, is said to have benefited from this trend.
At present, Vietnam has entered the 2024-2025 coffee crop year (October 2024 to September 2025). However, coffee prices in the Central Highlands have decreased significantly since the beginning of October. Although they have cooled down, domestic coffee prices are still 80% higher than the same period last year. At the same time, many forecasts show that prices will remain high in the 2024-2025 crop year due to reduced output.
According to the US Department of Agriculture , more than 95% of Vietnam’s coffee output in the coming season will be robusta. The growing popularity of instant and take-out coffee, combined with limited supplies due to weather, has caused robusta prices to double over the past year. The current price of robusta is almost equal to that of premium arabica, which has also increased sharply in recent times.
Volcafe Ltd., a major coffee trader, forecasts a severe global robusta deficit in the 2024-25 crop year, which would be the fourth consecutive year of such a deficit.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-23102024-gia-ca-phe-chua-co-dau-hieu-ngung-giam-trong-nuoc-ve-sat-moc-100000-vnd-con-sot-da-ha-nhiet-291050.html
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