World coffee prices reverse to new highs, can the market level still be higher?

Domestic coffee supply remains tight. According to some businesses, the shortage of supply in the 2023-2024 crop year has occurred since May, so the amount of inventory transferred to the new crop is almost zero. This year is also the first time that coffee prices have reached a record high before entering the harvest season.

Coffee price today 9/18/2024

World coffee prices "turned around" and increased sharply, robusta again headed towards a new historical milestone.

Domestic coffee prices today, September 18, range from 123,300 - 123,800 VND/kg.

The volatility in the last session was very strong, sometimes up and then down in the context of investors generally maintaining a cautious mentality, waiting for the policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the two coffee exchanges in London and New York both had a good trading session on the closing day of business positions.

Supporting the coffee rally is still weather information from the Cemaden disaster monitoring center - Brazil is facing its driest weather since 1981. Rainfall in Brazil has been consistently below normal since April, so soil moisture is low, which could harm coffee plants during the upcoming flowering period and reduce the outlook for the country's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop.

The strong rise of the Real against the USD also contributed to supporting the price of Arabica coffee, 5.5 Real to 1 USD is the highest level of the Real in the past 3 weeks.

Regarding the seasonal situation in Vietnam, coffee plantations have begun to produce early ripe fruits. However, due to the impact of storms and rains, the harvest may start later than usual. According to weather reports, prolonged storms and rains will affect the progress of the coffee harvest in the coming time. This year is also the first time that coffee prices have reached a record high before the harvest season begins.

The Central Highlands coffee crop peaks from November to December, so Vietnam’s supply is at its lowest level of the year at the moment. Analysts also say coffee prices could rise further in the coming months as the global supply situation worsens. A cup of coffee will become even more expensive as persistent supply disruptions push the price of premium arabica beans to a 13-year high.

Experts also believe that the strong demand for durian from China has contributed to the large decline in coffee production in Vietnam. The recent significant expansion of durian production in Vietnam has significantly reduced the area for coffee cultivation, which appears to be contributing to the high international coffee prices.

Domestic coffee prices today, September 17, decreased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Getty Images)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on September 17, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased, the November 2024 delivery period increased by 57 USD, trading at 5,303 USD/ton. The January 2025 delivery period increased by 63 USD, trading at 5,040 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the December 2024 delivery term increasing by 5.95 cents, trading at 264.50 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery term increased by 6.25 cents, trading at 262.35 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices today, September 17, decreased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,350	- 20
DAK LAK	123,200	- 600
LAM DONG	122,800	- 700
GIA LAI	123,200	- 600
DAK NONG	123,200	- 600

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Domestic coffee supply remains tight. According to some businesses, the shortage of supply in the 2023-2024 crop year has occurred since May. Therefore, the amount of inventory to transfer to the new crop is almost zero.

The outlook for supply in the coming period is still bleak due to weather and natural disasters. Brazil is facing its driest weather since 1981, according to the Cemaden disaster monitoring center.

Global coffee exports in July increased by 12.2% year-on-year to a total of 11.3 million bags (60kg/bag). This contributed to bringing total global coffee exports in the first 10 months of the 2023-2024 crop year to 115 million bags, up 10.5% year-on-year.

In August, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices on the exchanges increased sharply, continuously recording multi-year record highs due to unfavorable weather in Brazil and Vietnam, affecting global supply. In addition, all three important speculative components in the market (Non-Commercial Hedge Funds, Fund Management Companies and Market Index Funds) increased their net buying positions, causing prices to increase sharply.

Figures released by the General Department of Customs show that Vietnam's coffee exports in August reached 76,214 tons, worth 402.2 million USD, down 9.9% in volume but up 55.8% in value compared to the same period last year. Coffee export turnover after 8 months is almost equal to the 4.2 billion USD achieved in the whole of last year.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1892024-gia-ca-phe-the-gioi-dao-chieu-huong-nguong-cao-moi-mat-bang-thi-truong-van-co-the-cao-hon-286711.html