Stock Market Perspective Week 14-18/7: Waiting for technical correction to optimize buying points

The market had a positive trading week, liquidity increased as foreign investors increased net buying. VN-Index surpassed the resistance of 1,400 in the first session of the week, continuing the consecutive increase.

The Vietnamese stock market continued to accelerate and set a new high in the last trading session of the week. The VN-Index increased by more than 12 points, closing at 1,457.76 points, confirming the 5th consecutive strong increase with a total increase of more than 70 points in the past week.

Market liquidity increased sharply, with trading volume on HoSE increasing by 41% compared to last week, averaging more than 1.2 billion shares/session. Much higher than the average at the peak in 2022. Foreign investors continued to net buy with a value of VND 6,969.8 billion on HoSE this week.

From a technical perspective, VN-Index continues to break through resistance levels, maintaining a strong uptrend; The next target level is 1,470 points; Cash flow is active and maintains heat, providing good support for the uptrend.

According to SHS experts, the short-term trend of VN-Index is to grow above the nearest support of 1,450 points. VN-Index continues to aim for the price range around 1,480 points. VN30 increased significantly, surpassing the historical high price of November 2021 around 1,587 points and may be under pressure to retest this price range in the coming time. The positive impact partly comes from VHM and VIC stocks when these two stocks increased strongly, aiming for the historical peak price range in 2021, corresponding to the price range of 90,000 VND for VHM and 120,000 - 130,000 VND for VIC. The market is still in an uptrend, with short-term opportunities in stocks with positive net foreign buying.

In the derivatives market, the 41I1F7000 term increased sharply by +123.70 points (+8.40%), closing at 1,595.90 points. The difference was +1.89 points compared to VN30, the further terms were 41I1F8000 VN30F2509 VN30F2512 with a difference of -7.31 points to -19.01 points compared to VN30. The total contract volume traded was +44.20% compared to last week, and higher than the 20-week average. The short-term trend of 41I1F7000 is expected to fluctuate around 1,600 points. The OI volume this week was 49,996, lower than the previous week's 58,016, indicating a trend of reducing holding positions before the expiration week.

Mr. Le Duc Huy, Head of Market Strategy Department, Agrbank Securities Joint Stock Company, forecasts that the index's performance next week will likely see the VN-Index continue to maintain a positive trend, although profit-taking pressure may gradually increase as the index moves. Large-cap stocks are expected to continue to play a leading role, but cash flow may shift to individual stocks with the expectation of positive business results in the second quarter of 2025.

In the context that the stock market is still maintaining a positive state but also has some potential risks, Mr. Huy said that investors should prioritize choosing industry groups that are not negatively affected by tariff information and have positive profit growth prospects in the second quarter of 2025 and the following quarters of 2025. In particular, industry groups with positive profit prospects in the second quarter include banking, real estate, retail, information technology, and livestock.

In addition, investors may be interested in sectors that benefit from a series of recent policies such as: Strengthening the control of counterfeit and fake goods; Promoting public investment disbursement, removing obstacles for real estate projects; Promoting credit growth.

And finally, the expectation of upgrading the market at the end of the year will also open up opportunities for the securities group and some bluechip businesses that can attract foreign cash flows.

However, increasing the proportion of stocks with strong price increases should only be done with a small proportion in the portfolio and prioritizing stocks available in the portfolio, in order to maintain the ability to proactively manage risks in the face of unusual fluctuation scenarios.

The investment strategy proposed by HSC Securities Company is to continue holding existing buying positions, taking advantage of the market's uptrend; Limit FOMO buying; Prioritize waiting for technical fluctuations to optimize buying points, disburse into stocks with a solid foundation, positive Q2/2025 business results, tight price bases and clear support stories.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-14-187-cho-chinh-ky-thuat-de-toi-uu-hoa-diem-mua-d329664.html