HSBC raises Vietnam's GDP growth forecast to 7.9%

According to the Vietnam economic update report recently released by HSBC Vietnam International Bank, which raised the GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 6.6% to 7.9%, after third-quarter data showed that Vietnam continued to be the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia.

HSBC Bank raises Vietnam's growth forecast in 2025 to 7.9%

According to HSBC, Vietnam's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 8.23%, much higher than the market forecast of 7.2%. This achievement helped Vietnam surpass major economies in the region and consolidate its position as a bright spot of growth in Asia. At the same time, it commented: "Vietnam is showing strong economic resilience and resilience. Growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, not only thanks to recovering exports but also thanks to accelerated domestic consumption and infrastructure investment."

In fact, key export sectors such as electronics, computers, components and textiles all recorded double-digit growth. Export turnover in the third quarter reached 128.6 billion USD, up 18.4% over the same period last year, bringing the trade surplus to 3 billion USD - double the first half of the year. In particular, exports to the US increased by nearly 30%, reflecting Vietnam's ability to effectively take advantage of the trend of shifting global supply chains.

HSBC believes that three main drivers are contributing to Vietnam's strong growth: sustainable trade, recovering industrial production and stable domestic consumption.

Industrial production in the third quarter increased 10% year-on-year, led by the electronics sector - thanks to increased demand for components and technology equipment applying artificial intelligence (AI). At the same time, retail sales increased 12%, while tourism recovered beyond expectations, with 15 million international arrivals, reaching 120% compared to pre-pandemic levels.

In addition, a series of key infrastructure projects have been implemented, helping actual investment in the third quarter increase by nearly 10%. However, HSBC noted that the disbursement rate of public investment only reached about 50% of the annual plan, showing that there is still a lot of room to promote growth in the fourth quarter.

HSBC's report highly appreciated Vietnam's ability to manage a stable macro-economy in a volatile global context. Inflation in September 2025 was at 3.4%, lower than the ceiling of 4.5 - 5% of the State Bank, while core inflation remained at 3.2%, reflecting a well-controlled price environment.

Credit growth by the end of August increased by nearly 20%, equivalent to the annual target, while foreign direct investment (FDI) continued to make a positive contribution. Total FDI in the third quarter increased by 15%, showing that international investors' confidence in Vietnam is recovering strongly.

The structure of FDI capital flows has also changed positively: Singapore, mainland China and the United States now account for about one-third of the total newly registered capital, reflecting the trend of shifting manufacturing investment to Vietnam in the context of the reshaping of the global supply chain.

Illustration photo.

With a solid economic foundation, HSBC not only raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 7.9%, but also revised up its forecast for 2026 from 5.8% to 6.7%. At the same time, the bank slightly raised its inflation forecast to 3.3% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, but said that this level is still under control.

HSBC assessed: “Vietnam is entering a period of high-quality growth, where trade, investment and domestic consumption all contribute positively. Maintaining macroeconomic stability, flexible fiscal policy and progress in public investment disbursement will be key to ensuring sustainable growth momentum.”

According to HSBC experts, Vietnam is fully capable of achieving or exceeding the growth target of over 8% in 2025, if it effectively takes advantage of the momentum from global trade, accelerates infrastructure investment and expands the digital economic space.

Despite the positive outlook, HSBC also warned of risks from international trade fluctuations and the impact of geopolitical tensions that could affect global commodity flows. In addition, domestic demand, although recovering, still needs stronger support through stimulus policies and increasing people's disposable income.

However, with a stable investment environment, a strong export foundation, and the Government's commitment to sustainable development, HSBC believes that Vietnam remains one of the most attractive investment destinations in Asia.

HSBC's bold move to raise Vietnam's GDP growth forecast to nearly 8% not only reflects positive economic results in 2025, but also affirms international confidence in Vietnam's management capacity, resilience and development vision.

In the context of volatile global trade, Vietnam is emerging as a “growth star” of Southeast Asia, with the potential to maintain high, stable and sustainable growth, towards the goal of becoming a high-income developed economy by 2045.

Source: https://baohungyen.vn/hsbc-nang-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-len-7-9-3187183.html