Latest forecast on this year's winter weather trends

The first cold spell this year was strong and brought deeper drops in temperature, making people feel clearly that winter is approaching.

Discussing this issue, Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Climate Meteorology Research - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, said: in fact, this year winter did not come earlier than usual, but the first cold spell was strong and obvious, making many people feel like winter came early.

Right from the beginning of the year, the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has assessed and forecasted that the 2025 winter monsoon will begin approximately at the average of many years (ie around mid- to late October) and the cold intensity this year will be stronger.

So, it's not that the cold air came earlier, but the first cold spell this year was stronger and the temperature dropped deeper, making people clearly feel that winter was approaching.

ENSO forecast to transition to La Nina in the last months of the year will impact this year's winter weather

According to international climate centers (NOAA, IRI, JMA), from mid-October 2025, the equatorial Pacific region is still in a neutral ENSO state but tends to lean towards the cold phase, with sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region gradually decreasing compared to average.

Forecasts show a 65% chance that La Nina will form during October-December 2025 and last through the winter of 2025-2026, before potentially returning to neutral conditions in early 2026.

For Vietnam, if La Nina really sets in this winter, the weather in the North will often be colder and last longer than normal, especially in the months of December 2025 - February 2026.

According to Dr. Truong Ba Kien, the intensity of cold spells this winter may be stronger than last year. Photo: AN AN

La Nina also enhances the northeast monsoon, causing drizzle and humid fog in the North and North Central regions to appear early and persistently. In contrast, the South and Central Highlands usually have a late dry season, while the Central region may experience heavy rains late in the year.

This year's winter is forecast to be colder than average, with more severe cold spells than last year.

Weather forecast for October 25

According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, dangerous weather patterns will continue to appear in the coming days on land and at sea such as flash floods, landslides, heavy rain in the Central region and Central Highlands, strong gusts of wind, big waves in many sea areas...

From early morning of October 25 to early morning of October 27, the area from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai and the eastern part of Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces will have moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms with common rainfall of 80-170mm, locally very heavy rain over 350mm (heavy rain concentrated in coastal areas).

Warning of risk of heavy rain over 100mm/3h.

From early morning of October 27 to early morning of October 28, in the area from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai, there will be moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms with common rainfall from 50-100mm, locally very heavy rain over 200mm. Heavy rain in this area is likely to last until the end of October 2025.

On the day and night of October 25, the northern sea area of the North East Sea will have strong winds of level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8-9, rough seas, waves 3-5m high.

From South Quang Tri to Khanh Hoa, strong winds level 6, gusts level 8, rough seas, waves 2-4m high.

On the night of October 25, the wind in Bac Bo Gulf was level 5, sometimes level 6, gusting to level 7-8, rough sea, waves 1.5-3m high.

Natural disaster risk level due to heavy rain, tornado, lightning, hail level 1. Currently at Bach Long Vi station, there is strong northeast wind level 6, gust level 7. Ly Son station has strong north wind level 6, gust level 7.

Weather in the regions

In the Northwest, there will be scattered rain in the morning, then rain in some places, cold weather, some places will be chilly, light wind. Lowest temperature 16-19 degrees Celsius, some places below 16 degrees Celsius. Highest temperature 23-26 degrees Celsius, some places above 26 degrees Celsius.

In the Northeast, there will be rain in some places, cold weather, and in mountainous areas, it will be freezing. Northeast wind level 2-3. Lowest temperature 17-20 degrees Celsius, in mountainous areas, below 17 degrees Celsius. Highest temperature 22-25 degrees Celsius.

Hanoi has rain in some places, cold weather. Northeast wind level 2-3. Lowest temperature 19-21 degrees Celsius. Highest temperature: 22-24 degrees Celsius.

Provinces and cities from Thanh Hoa to Hue, the North (Thanh Hoa, Nghe An) have rain in some places; the South has rain, especially Hue city has moderate rain, heavy rain, locally very heavy rain in some places, cold weather. North to Northwest wind level 2-3. Lowest temperature 19-22 degrees Celsius. Highest temperature 22-25 degrees Celsius.

South Central Coast, North has moderate rain, heavy rain, locally very heavy rain and thunderstorms; South has moderate rain, locally heavy to very heavy rain, thunderstorms with the possibility of tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind. Northeast wind level 2-3. Lowest temperature 22-25 degrees Celsius. Highest temperature 26-29 degrees Celsius.

The Central Highlands has scattered showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy rain; Lam Dong has moderate rain, locally heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms, with the possibility of tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind. Northeast wind level 2-3. Lowest temperature 19-22 degrees Celsius, highest temperature 26-29 degrees Celsius.

The South has rain, moderate rain and thunderstorms, locally heavy to very heavy rain, with the possibility of tornadoes, lightning, hail and strong gusts of wind. Northeast to East wind level 2-3. Lowest temperature 23-26 degrees Celsius. Highest temperature 28-31 degrees Celsius, some places above 31 degrees Celsius.

Ho Chi Minh City has moderate rain and thunderstorms, locally heavy to very heavy rain, with the possibility of tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind in thunderstorms. Northeast to East wind level 2-3. Lowest temperature 24-26 degrees Celsius. Highest temperature 29-31 degrees Celsius.

PV - VNA

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-xu-the-thoi-tiet-mua-dong-nam-nay-524527.html